BOZmail 19th OCTOBER

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2020 home of the BOZmail

Welcome to the BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet 

MONDAY OCTOBER 19th  2020 

BOZmail 2020 cycle : 2020 overall score = +36.0131 points

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 LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Currently stands at : 27.0058 points (+7.0058 points)

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TENNIS & TO FOLLOW HORSE BACK/TRADE STARTING BANK = 8 points

Currently stands at : 38.1928 points (+30.1928 points)

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OCCASIONAL ACCA STARTING BANK = 5 points

Currently stands at : 4.9635 points (-0.0365 points)

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SPECIAL ROYAL ASCOT fixed odds bets = (-0.554 points)

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Post Lockdown Litmus Test Bozbets = (+0.085 points)

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Local Track Factor Section = (-0.68 points)

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LESS IS MORE

LIM 2020 Strike rates: Lays 92/128 = 71.87%  Backs : 25/78 = 32.05%

3-40 PLUMPTON

When it’s going like this you wonder how you can have struggling times. But you always do. Enjoy the winners whilst they come. 

I did actually make a mistake Sunday not noticing that For Pleasure wouldn’t like right handed track. And he seriously didn’t! Threw the race away. But I chose the races well and Mrs Hyde rescued us in classic LIM style in what was a very fast race. Sangha River stays on the to follow although only third and Fidelio Vallis and For Pleasure will both win races as the season goes on. And Silver Streak also won. But I’d have backed Verdana Blue (who won’t now win a champion hurdle whatever the ground) so did that thing of picking a race not to bet in which is just as important as picking the one to go for.

Let’s see if I’ve got Monday’s right. I nearly headed to Pontefract for one on the flat but there is a non runner in this one at Plumpton which leaves it a qualifier and it is suitably competitive. Enrichissant has the negatives of lay off and harsh penalty to overcome as well as stable form and rise up in class and looks a fav to take on albeit that he is a bit of a price and I thus stake down a tad. Want to keep the run going but don’t want a bombhole in the finances at this stage so prudence called for. The winner is also hard to be sure of. Mason Jar has not progressed like he might have but still has a strong shout as does Gateway to Europe whilst Dr Sanderson is a bit in and out and also has lay off to overcome but has a fair shout on best form. Copper Coin also has claims.

So simple lay on the fav day again.

Recommendation:

0.2pt LAY on ENRICHISSANT (around 3.5.Might be worth taking early as price could drift)

LIM SCORES FOR OCTOBER:

1st: NO BET

2nd: +0.196  (+0.196) Lay @ 4.1

3rd:  -0.18     (+0.016) Lay @ 2.2

4th:  +0.147  (+0.163) Lay @ 4.4

5th: NO BET

6th: NO BET

7th:  -0.54     (-0.377) Lay @ 3.2 : Back @ 16.5

8th:  -0.392  (-0.769) Lay @ 2.12

9th: +0.441  (-0.328) Lay @ 1.25 : Back @ 8.0

10th: -0.1     (-0.428) Back @ 2.4

11th: +0.294 (-0.134) Lay @ 1.94 : Back @ 4.0

12th: NO BET

13th: +0.1558 (+0.0218) Back @ 2.59

14th: +0.098   (+0.1198) Lay @ 2.4

15th:  +0.245  (+0.3648) Lay @ 2.7 (averaged and after 22% Rule 4 deduction)

16th:  +0.196  (+0.5608) Lay @ 2.7

17th:  +0.4459 (+1.0067) Lay @ 1.7 : Back @ 3.05

18th:  +0.245  (+1.2517) Lay @ 2.3

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BOZmail 2020 – Horses to follow on the flat:

Muker 

Ransom

Battleground – Entered for Doncaster (Oct 24) & Irish Guineas(May 22)

Royal Air Force – Entered in the 2021 Derby (June 5) & Irish Guineas (May 22)

Plainchant(FR) 

Aramhes(FR)

BOZmail 2020 – NH Horses to follow (Part Two):

Straw Fan Jack

McFabulous

Flic Ou Voyou 

Soaring Glory

Israel Champ

Bravemansgame

Sangha River

Captain Tom Cat – Entered @ Cheltenham(Oct 23)

Saint Sam (FR)

Pisgah Pike – Entered @ Plumpton (Oct 19)

Young Wolf 

Sirobbie      

Soldier of Love – Entered @ Cheltenham (Oct 23)

Lady Bowes(soft) 

Captain Zebo

Defi Sacre

Leoncavallo 

Oscar Rose 

She’s a Rocca(heavy) 

Charm Offensive

Timetoroe(heavy) – Entered @ Hereford (Oct 21)

Baby Jane

Caius Marcius 

Calum Gilhooly 

The Butcher Said

Mrs Hyde

Return Ticket(flat track) – Entered @ Cheltenham (Oct 23)

Redford Road

Not That Fuisse(good/good to soft)

Carroll’s Milan

Prettylittlething – Entered @ Hereford (Oct 21)

Wenceslaus

Boothill

Al Dancer

Onemorefortheroad

Stormy Ireland

Eldorado Allen

For Pleasure

Fidelio Vallis (softish ground)

NH TO FOLLOW/TRADE horse on Sunday at Kempton:

2-57 Leapaway @ 4/1 – 0.2pt BACK

Backed @ 10.0 : hedged 0.3pt @ 5.5 : P/L = +0.098pts

Jumped poorly at this higher level and although Johnson was missing and the horse will do better perhaps with him on board, loses his place on the to follow list for that. Replaced by Mrs Hyde.

NH TO FOLLOW horse on Monday at Plumpton:

2-10 Pisgah Pike @ 11/10 – 0.15pt BACK

Tries to carry his penalty in lower grade which is never a given as we saw with Sangha River from the same formline so nobody’s idea of a cert and short price means low value. Is a horse that owes me nowt for ever more however so I stay loyal and have a few shekels on him. He is good enough to win it and faith and loyalty is ultimately always repaid. Trade if you prefer but straight back for me in the current climate.

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LIM Monthly Scores:

February: + 1.3496 points

March      : + 1.5866 points

UK RACING LOCKDOWN

April         : – 0.1733 points

May          : – 0.8359 points

UK RACING RESTARTED

June         : + 0.0428 points

July          : + 0.8046 points  

August    :  +1.9726 points   (+4.747 points)

September : +1.0071 points (+5.7541 points)

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The BOZmail golden rules:

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(the boz’s job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a lay price or if a specified low lay tissue price goes on a significant drift. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges. The recommendation is always to secure a price (if possible) when actually placing the lay bet. Your discretion based on personal form study and watching the markets develop also encouraged to ensure you maximise returns.The staking advices are a general rather than rigid dictate – mainly for the less experienced and those not able to spend time watching markets develop and practising the optimum betting time skill. Remember also that a lay price available at a significantly lower level than stated on the sheet offers opportunity to increase lay stake without increasing calculated safe lay liability. This can be a key profit optimising tool in the long term if your form study agrees with that published by The Boz.

5/ Always keep in mind the long term ‘importance of  breaking even’ philosophy and practice. This is very much used by The Boz in his staking advices and is recommended in your betting practices – especially during the down spells – in order to maintain a healthy and consistent bank.

6/ Always remember the BOZ does traditionally suffer from Murphys Law. If he expresses his opinion but states that he won’t be betting on it himself and isn’t making it an official tip, remember that historically these can be his best advices! The 2019 Grand National opinion expressed paid a £2,260-93 tricast for a £60 (£1×60) permed stake (five selections). 

7/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been the BOZ’s mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year he packs in.

“I play cautiously and strategically with bank management always in mind.”  Boz 

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