BOZmail – 19th NOVEMBER

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2019 home of the BOZmail

Welcome to the new BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet. 

TUESDAY NOVEMBER 19th  2019 

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 LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Stands at 60.481 points after month 11 (+40.481 points profit)

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2019 BOZMAIL TENNIS WINNINGS:

Current Total      = +7.5813 points

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THE BOZ’s 2019 TO FOLLOW & TENNIS TRADES P/L:

Current Total      = +14.3557 points

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BOZMAIL 2019 COMBINED PROFIT TOTAL = +62.418 points

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LESS IS MORE: TUESDAY PLAY

1-10 FAKENHAM

Monday turned out a bit more speculative than intended with the market knowing more about what was expected of the horses than me. It happens and the drying of the ground was also a bit unforeseen. It needed heavy to slow the fav down but having seen the race, might not have made much difference anyway. I was disappointed Jamie Moore rode Gleno out the back but accept he knows more about the horse than I do and he didn’t jump great again. Seems to put in his best work with no jockey on his back! Damage limited by working on best prices and they smashed Champagne as low as 1.46 which means one of two things, enabled us to limit damage or one we shouldn’t have been laying! Hey ho. Never let it put you off taking on the shorties!

More LIM qualifiers than I can shake a stick at Tuesday. So spoilt for choice but in some ways that makes things harder than when you are forced to focus on the only player. I chose this race initially because of knowing a couple of the horses – both Skeaping and Todd are previous LIM selections at Fakenham – but was finding it tough to arrive at an angle so trawled for two hours through the myriad of other possibles at Lingfield and Fakenham but ended back here having found nothing I felt more comfortable with. Here the basic decision is which one to lay, Todd or Skeaping?

Skeaping has more negatives in that 2m 4f is further than his optimum, he has to concede weight all round – Two stone to Cryogenics – and he still carries the penalty for that two wins in two days – first of which was that classic for us here later avenged by Ballyellis at Stratford. He has won in the past off higher than this and stable/jockey combo looks good but I still lean more to Todd over this distance. On his mark and due a win. The 2m 7f of LTO seems to suit him less than this distance and that is backed up by breeding.Also won over this course and distance off higher so getting 10lb clinches it his way for me. The Galileo gene in Skeaping is consistent with his not wanting further and on that I rest my case. 

Todd is simple LIM cover and I place my highly speculative back on Cryogenics on whom I can make absolutely no formbook case. Just very rare to see Kenny Johnson sending one to Fakenham. 6lb out of the handicap. Miss that and just play the lay if you don’t feel inclined to humour me! Just got that funny feeling in my bones. Probably comes from staring at so much form and coming to no strong conclusions! The stat though is that KJ shows a healthy level stakes profit whenever he sends just one runner to a meeting. And a long way to come!

Profit protection day or rather more likely damage limitation day! But you never know!

The occasional 1000.0 has been known to come in in a four runner race. Don’t know why but getting this from this race. If you do play, get the best price you can! 

Recommendations:

0.25pt LAY on SKEAPING (around 2.7 : no greater than 2.96)

0.025pt BACK on CRYOGENICS

BLWM LIM strike rates:  LAYS: 196/295 = 66.44% :   BACKS: 53/196 = 27.04%

This month’s scores so far:

1st:    +0.343 (+0.343) Lay @ 2.6

2nd:   +0.245 (+0.588) Lay @ 2.62

3rd:    +0.098 (+0.656) Lay @ 4.2

4th:    NO PLAY DAY

5th:    +0.096 (+0.752) Lay @4.4 : Back @ 3.85

6th:    +0.147 (+0.899) Lay @ 1.75

7th:    +0.196 (+1.095) Lay @ 4.2

8th:    +0.343 (+1.438) Lay @ 2.1

9th:    -0.475 (+0.963) Lay @ 2.9

10th:  -0.3425(+0.6205) Lay @ 1.97 : Back @ 5.0

11th:  +0.144 (+0.7645) Lay @ 2.6 : Back @ 5.0

12th:  +0.196 (+0.9605) Lay @ 3.85

13th:  +0.596 +(1.5565) Lay @ 2.48 : Back @ 5.0

14th:  +0.147 (+1.7035) Lay @ 3.0

15th:   +0.095 (+1.7985) Lay @ 3.2 : Back @ 14.5

16th:   +0.245 (+2.0435) Lay @ 2.6

17th:   +0.143 (+2.1865) Lay @ 2.4 : Back @ 3.0

18th:    -0.332 (+1.8545) Lay @ 1.52 : Backs @6.0 & 26.0

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STAGGERED ACCA RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 10 points

Stands at 9.75 points. 

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WINTER NH HORSES TO FOLLOW for TRADING or LIM PURPOSES:

La Bague au Roi – Entered for the King George & The Gold Cup!

Unwin VC – Entered at Ffos Las (Nov 22)

Kaizer – Entered on the flat at Newcastle (Nov 21)

Tea Clipper 

Nube Negra 

Black Op – Entered for Stayers Hurdle (Mar 12)

Verdana Blue – Entered for Champion Hurdle

Maire Banrigh 

Wenceslaus 

Tokaramore 

Flic Ou Voyou 

Thyme Hill 

Nordano 

Indian Opera

Lady Bowes 

Floressa 

Vinndication –Entered for King George & Gold Cup!

Lostintranslation – Entered for Haydock (Nov 23),King George,Ryanair & Gold Cup

Cat Tiger – Entered for Haydock (Nov 23)

Welsh Saint 

Normandy Soldier-Entered Chepstow(Nov 20),Wincanton(Nov 21)&FfosLas (Nov 22)

Ribble Valley

Kid Commando

Up The Straight

Flaming Charmer

Jatiluwih

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PLANS for the 2020 BOZmail:

The main development for next year is an annual subscription service only which will become available for purchase from December 1st 2019 and will be limited to first 150 purchasers. Membership will be closed when that number is reached or on January 31st 2020. Activity will begin on 1st February 2020.

The 2020 service will not be covering horseracing during January 2020 nor September 2020 as statistics have shown these to be negative months for LIM.

The 2020 BOZmail cycle will thus be a 10 month cycle completing on December 31st 2020.

The reason for annual subscription membership only is so that all members will be at same bank management level throughout. This enables The Boz to practice greater profit reinvestment in his staking levels (thus increasing overall profitability). Something that has not been possible in the 2019 cycle where new members were joining all the time and members were thus at varying bank levels throughout – leading The Boz to be more cautious in his staking levels than was ideal.

Membership of the 2020 BOZmail is recommended for those with some experience of how the service works although new members will be admitted up to the subscription closing date on January 31st 2020 if places are still available. First chance to purchase subscription however will be made to current members only. The service will only be advertised to non members after December 31st 2019 if some places are still available. The capping of numbers for the service is hopefully self explanatory to those who have experience of the service.

There will be some changes to content although the main focus will remain on the daily LIM service and the to follow trading advices in UK horse racing. Tennis coverage of the women’s Grand Slams will be limited to Wimbledon and the French Open only in 2020. There will be ad hoc accumulator advices throughout the cycle as they arise. The staggered acca approach practised in 2019 however will be discontinued. Simply hasn’t been as successful as hoped.

Never afraid to cull its dead wood is the BOZmail!

There are plans to introduce a paddock watching element to the service and to organise various days at the races during the year for those interested in advancing paddock watching skills and using these as an enhancement to their punting profitability generally. Details of these days will be available to BOZmail annual subscriber members only and will come at no extra charge (other than responsibility for paying own course entrance fee). The Boz is also publishing a guide to UK paddock watching in 2020 and will thus be in attendance at all UK racecourses at some point during the year collecting material for the book.

If you have any questions or queries about 2020 BOZmail annual membership at this stage, please feel free to contact The BOZ direct as always via email (garyboswell@hotmail.com). TGH Trading will be in touch in the coming weeks with personal invites to all current members to purchase first chance 2020 membership detailing cost etc. Opening date for purchasing 2020 membership will be December 1st 2019. First come,first served. 

With thanks to all who have supported the service in 2019 and here’s to a highly profitable and enjoyable 2020!

Cheers

THE BOZ

 Good Luck with your bets.

BOZ

The BOZmail golden rules:

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(the boz’s job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a lay price or if a specified low lay tissue price goes on a significant drift. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges. As from March 2019 onwards, advised not to take BETFAIR SP prices on lays following some adverse returns therein over the January/February period. The recommendation is always to secure a price (if possible) within the published parameters when actually placing the lay bet. Your discretion based on personal form study also encouraged to ensure you maximise returns.The staking advices are a general rather than rigid dictate – mainly for the less experienced and those not able to spend time watching markets develop and practising the optimum betting time skill.

5/ Always keep in mind the long term ‘importance of  breaking even’ philosophy and practice. This is very much used by The Boz in his staking advices and is recommended in your betting practices – especially during the down spells – in order to maintain a healthy and consistent bank.

6/ Always remember the BOZ does traditionally suffer from Murphys Law. If he expresses his opinion but states that he won’t be betting on it himself and isn’t making it an official tip, remember that historically these can be his best advices! The 2019 Grand National opinion expressed paid a £2,260-93 tricast for a £60 (£1×60) permed stake (five selections). 

7/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been the BOZ’s mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year he packs in.

“I play cautiously and strategically with bank management also always in mind. The staggered acca is the attempt to win large from small stake. The LIM is the cashbuilder to gradually accumulate profit over a 12 month period.”  Boz 

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