BOZmail -19th MAY

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2019 home of the BOZmail

Welcome to the new BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet.

SUNDAY MAY 19th 2019

LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Stood at 26.0 points after month 1

Stood at 25.83 points after month 2

Stood at 27.28 points after month 3

Stood at 36.0395 points after month 4

Stands at 40.8925 points after month 5

LESS IS MORE: SUNDAY PLAY

3-00 STRATFORD

I thought Eightsome Reel ran a fine race without ever looking like winning and Raise You is obviously a good one. Got our value and no regrets. Just one that got away and I keep both horses on the to follow for the future.

Backward step bank wise however and could have done without that and have been faced with similar dilemma Sunday. Go for it or play safe? Decided to go for it again.

Failed to get Goodthyneaway beat at Plumpton last week and the horse is clearly in good heart but must shoulder another penalty and that has to stop them at some point. 4/7 is very short and I’ll take on at that with Kilcara – a similar wind op improved sort – who may have been lucky to win LTO and thus may be penalised unfairly but it was a good one turned over by jumping better and she was withdrawn as our lay the other day and saved for this as a more viable win. I do think a fair chance of lowering Goodthyneaway which makes the Skelton horse a decent lay at 4/7.

The going for it again however is in the shape of the left field 14/1 rag doing them both. Regulation has desperate recent form and is thus 14/1 in a 3 horse race but a case can be made as a horse Bryony Frost gets on with as a hurdler. Won on him twice. Given the magic in her hands with chasers this has FTO possibilities getting weight off the front two and I wouldn’t put it past the madame to work out a way of pace racing this to swing the upset. Times suggest it is a possible if she gets him jumping and who in England at the moment would you back to get a horse well balanced for a rhythmic round of jumping?

Like the Hunter Chase at Fontwell the other night, this is a bet about jockey booking as much as it is about horse form.

Recommendation:

0.5pt LAY on GOODTHYNEAWAY (around 1.6 ; no greater than 1.9)

0.1pt BACK on REGULATION (around 15.0)

*************************************************************************

This month plays so far:

1st:   -0.455 (-0.455) LAY @ 2.82

2nd:  -0.3    (-0.755) LAY @ 1.6

3rd:   -0.628 (-1.383) LAY @ 2.76 : BACK @ 34.0

4th:   -0.8    (-2.183) LAY @ 3.4 : BACK @ 7.0

5th:   +0.095 (-2.088) LAY @ 1.95 : BACK @ 9.0

6th:   -0.3    (-2.388) LAY @ 2.2

7th:   +0.095 (-2.293) LAY @ 1.94 : BACK @ 5.1

8th:   +0.19  (-2.103) BACK @ 1.95

9th:   -0.825  (-2.928) LAY @ 3.25 : BACK @ 8.4

10th: NO PLAY DAY

11th:  +0.195 (-2.733) LAY @ 2.92

12th:  -0.24  (-2.973) LAY @ 1.6

13th:  +0.52 (-2.453) BACK @ 6.2

14th:   -0.25 (-2.703) LAYS @ 3.5 & 3.9 : BACK @ 4.5

15th:   +0.196(-2.507) LAY @ 4.0

16th:   +0.996 (-1.511) Lay @ 2.62 : BACK @ 9.0

17th:   +0.196 (-1.315) Lay @ 5.00

18th:   -0.46 (-1.775) Lay @ 2.24 : BACK @ 11.0                      

BLWM LIM strike rates:  LAYS: 102/149 = 68.45% :   BACKS: 25/96 = 26.04%

*******************************************************

SUMMER NH HORSES TO FOLLOW for TRADING or LIM PURPOSES:

Get out the Gate

Shoal Bay

Commodore Barry

*****************************************************

HORSES TO FOLLOW ON THE FLAT:

King of Comedy – Entered for St James Palace,Ascot (June 18)

Moonlight Spirit – Entered for the King Edward,Ascot (June 21)

Eightsome Reel

Dee Ex Bee – Entered for Epsom (May 31) & Ascot Gold Cup (June 20)

Sir Dragonet- Entered for King Edward (June 21) & Eclipse (July 6)

Raise You

*****************************************************

STAGGERED ACCA RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 10 points

Stands at 11.3966 points.

Staggered acca number 10: (LEG 4)

Will shout when next leg emerges.

***********************************************************

Good Luck with your bets.

BOZ

The BOZmail golden rules:

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(the boz’s job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a lay price or if a specified low lay tissue price goes on a significant drift. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges. As from March 2019 onwards, advised not to take BETFAIR SP prices on lays following some adverse returns therein over the January/February period. The recommendation is always to secure a price (if possible) within the published parameters when actually placing the lay bet. Your discretion based on personal form study also encouraged to ensure you maximise returns.The staking advices are a general rather than rigid dictate – mainly for the less experienced and those not able to spend time watching markets develop and practising the optimum betting time skill.

5/ Always keep in mind the long term ‘importance of  breaking even’ philosophy and practice. This is very much used by The Boz in his staking advices and is recommended in your betting practices – especially during the down spells – in order to maintain a healthy and consistent bank.

6/ Always remember the BOZ does traditionally suffer from Murphys Law. If he expresses his opinion but states that he won’t be betting on it himself and isn’t making it an official tip, remember that historically these can be his best advices! The 2019 Grand National opinion expressed paid a £2,260-93 tricast for a £60 (£1×60) permed stake (five selections).

7/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been the BOZ’s mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year he packs in.

“I play cautiously and strategically with bank management also always in mind. The staggered acca is the attempt to win large from small stake. The LIM is the cashbuilder to gradually accumulate profit over a 12 month period.”  Boz

**************************************************************************************

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *