BOZmail – 19th JUNE

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Welcome to the new BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet.

WEDNESDAY JUNE 19th  2019

LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Stood at 26.0 points after month 1

Stood at 25.83 points after month 2

Stood at 27.28 points after month 3

Stood at 36.0395 points after month 4

Stood at 40.8925 points after month 5

Stands at 43.0503 points after month 6

LESS IS MORE: WEDNESDAY PLAY

Second Round Match at Edgbaston

Fairly mystified by how the ground rode at Stratford on Tuesday but time to really take a raincheck on the horses with the lay percentage still struggling and the tennis performing so much better. Never one to ignore such a warning!

I shall be keeping my eye on the horses of course but have no wish to give hard earned profits back there when there is a good alternative on offer. It goes like this sometimes and you have to accept it. Work your way back to form. At least I was stake prudent on Tuesday but no confidence there for Wednesday so a decisive switch over to the tennis until I see another strong horse to bet and/or the weather settles down. Second round at Edgbaston for me!

Weather however is not that great there either and four first round games postponed on Tuesday that may well take precedence on the playing schedule should Wednesday be another rain interrupted day. Suspension of play just something you have to get used to in tennis betting and it can be disruptive but no more so than the weather in horse-racing!

There are two second round games I want to play where the favourite is vulnerable. The first is Osaka v Putintseva where the world number one has a bad back score against the clay court specialist. You’ll see from my outrights comments below that Osaka struggled today v Sakkari and is very capable of losing her way in a grass match despite being at times quite able to look unplayable as she did first set today.

The other is home favourite Johanna Konta who is 1.4 to lay versus Jelena Ostapenko because she has a 2-1 back score versus the Latvian Slam winner who has been very out of form for the past six months or so. It is the latter I have chosen as my LIM play should the second round take place on Wednesday. I watched Ostapenko in the doubles and in her coaching sessions on Monday and she is working hard on the serve that has been the root of all her troubles these past six months and could be argued was never great even when she won her slam. She has slipped down to world number 37 now but showed on Monday that she is not letting the adverse form affect her with a resounding performance in the doubles with Voskaboeva who also provided hitting partner service in the coaching session where they worked hard on righting what can be a very errant ball toss of Ostapenko’s. She often hits a bad throw up rather than try again to right her ball toss. And many a point goes astray. Always been an aspect of her game. And totally absent in the 6-0 6-2 demolition of Iga Swiatek in today’s first round match. Ruthless. As Ostapenko at her best can be. Here at Edgbaston where she first came onto my radar and on grass I believe where she really comes into her own. SF at Wimbledon last year (and QF year before) was her last decent form although she didn’t fare too badly in the end of season finals.

Basically still top ten player working through growing pains at just 22 years of age. Very young when she won that first slam. Looked to be ready for return to form when I saw her Monday and backed it up Tuesday and Konta better watch out. She more than Osaka is to be less trusted mentally as we saw in the Roland Garros semi where she squandered 5-3 in both sets going tight. Always an issue for Konta. Still not mastered at 28 years of age. In front of her home crowd here. Likely to be more uptight than ever if Ostapenko is testing her. And their three previous encounters have all been tight three setters. 2-1 to Konta but a fragile lead and she is not my idea of 1.4 fav. To be taken on. Not to the 1pt of the first round bets as this is a less value selection but I go half stake nevertheless which nicely protects first round winnings and gives us a chance of putting LIM back on course for June.

A possible trade game also of course. Notably volatile yoyo affairs often when Ostapenko is up against a decent opponent. I may well hedge if she makes a fast start and then back again later with some of what I have greened out keeping the balance in favour of the Latvian’s victory. That said, if Ostapenko takes charge, she could cakewalk it.

Recommendation:

0.5pt LAY on JOHANNA KONTA v Ostapenko (around 1.4)

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This month plays so far:

8th:      -0.1 (-0.1) Back @ 4.8

9th:   +1.691(+1.591) Lay @ 2.82 : Back @ 6.0

10th: +0.095(+1.686) Lay @ 3.0 : Back @ 3.1

11th:  NON-RUNNER NO PLAY

12th:  +0.34 (+2.026) Half Lay @ 4.4 : Back @ 26.0

             — Whole race played as trade–

13th:   +0.3 (+2.326) Back @ 2.2

14th:   -0.286 (+2.04) Lay @2.24 : Back @11.0

15th:   +0.049(+2.089) Lays @ 3.4 & 4.5 : Back @11.0

16th:    -0.09 (+1.999) Lay @ 1.09

17th:   +0.045(+2.044) Lay @ 2.9 : Backs @ 7.5 & 8.0

18th:    -0.415 (+1.629) Lay @ 2.06 : Back @ 5.3

BLWM LIM strike rates:  LAYS: 111/167 = 66.46% :   BACKS: 29/109 = 26.60%

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2019 BOZMAIL TENNIS POT TO PLAY WITH AT WIMBLEDON:

Australian Open = +0.283

French Open      = +2.74

Nottingham P/L = Break even

Edgbaston P/L   = +5.4083

Current Total      = +8.4313 points

EDGBASTON REPORT:

TWO FIRST ROUND PLAYS AGAINST THE BOOK:

From the same eighth of the draw:

Rodina to beat Mladenovic @ best priced 49/11 – WON

Goerges to beat Yastremska @ best priced 15/13 – WON

If you doubted my sanity in trading on women’s tennis as a main specialism, presumably less so now! That’s three big yoyos in the last three we’ve played.

Bencic v Siegemund,Rodina v Mladenovic & Yastremska v Goerges.

I found myself not minding too much who won this one as the outrights were designed to cover both but when it came to it, I could not resist the 1.04 lay on Yastremska when she went set up and 4-2 and then I saw the 22/1 on Goerges and couldn’t resist that either. Seen it so often over the years and especially with young players on the cusp of a big win. Yastremska was sublime first set and much of the second and little doubting her long term success and slam winning potential alongside Swiatek (who is getting thumped by Ostapenko as I write).but that tightening at the crucial point occurred at the crucial moment in the second set as Goerges upped her game to try and stay in and Yastremska semi-froze. Not as bad a one as some but more just the tightening in the swing and then the self recriminations and she was quickly lost mentally to Goerges’ experience.

I greened out easily end of second set with a whopping plus on Goerges again.

Two in two days. Hope you did same. Like shelling peas when it’s like this and definitely coming from the extra work I put in studying the draw this year. As the scouts always say. Success will come if you be prepared!

Taking a short breath now. Have already outlined potential plays in the later draw at Edgbaston and will flag them up as and when starting odds are value. I’ll be settling Goerges win on here to fixed odds again which means by now, you erstwhile trainee traders should be way ahead of the BOZmail tennis score!! Buy low, sell high. Oldest trick in the book. Still the one that works best and is most profitable.

My five for the outrights pre-tournament are as follows:

Sabalenka – 11/1 or better – ELIMINATED

Goerges – 22/1 or better

Yastremska – 25/1 or better – ELIMINATED

Qiang Wang – 50/1 or better

Rodina – 60/1 or better (Got 89/1)

Busy watching Osaka on the grass because I think she will be the lay for the outrights portfolio but didn’t promote pre-tournament because of her longish price and because I wanted to see how much she had progressed on grass from last season when she was not world number one nor a slam winner. Grass not ideal for her but let’s see how she does against Sakkari. Will write and advise more when I’ve seen all of Tuesday’s play.

Later……

Well it was truncated but Osaka did scrape through after looking at sea when losing the second set  and looking dazed early in the third. Did show champions mentality to win through after a sizzling first set where she was unplayable. But I’m not convinced she has it on grass still yet. Not when she comes up against Barty or Pliskova or even Konta who has a strong back score against her. Track craft on grass is very one dimensional. Sakkari upset her with her varied game and others who can live with her power will do likewise. Barty in particular who she is set to meet in final. So Osaka is my lay and I’ve posted 5.0 and would be prepared to go to 5.5. Not matched yet so not doing anything else at this stage and happy to go to QFs with my one guaranteed player from the Goerges v Rodina match. I will take a player from bottom half of the draw then (assuming Qiang Wang doesn’t progress which she may well yet) although at this stage strongly expect Barty to dominate there. Grass very much is her domain and she has newfound confidence and authority to boss this tournament. Might have to work to get her beat!

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SUMMER NH HORSES TO FOLLOW for TRADING or LIM PURPOSES:

Get out the Gate

Commodore Barry

Nietzsche

Caius Marcius

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HORSES TO FOLLOW ON THE FLAT:

Moonlight Spirit

Eightsome Reel – Entered for Ascot (Jun 20)

Dee Ex Bee – Entered for Ascot Gold Cup (June 20)

Sir Dragonet- Entered for Irish Derby (June 29) & King Edward (June 21)

Raise You

Charl Brune

Ocean Paradise

Maydanny

Roseman – Entered for Ascot (June 20)

Pour Me A Drink

Gold Stick

Light Up Our Stars – Entered for Goodwood (June 21)

DAY TWO TRADE AT ROYAL ASCOT:

3-05 MOONLIGHT SPIRIT @ 12/1 – 0.1pt BACK to LAY

Back it if you must! I have little to no confidence after the way Barney Roy ran and the as usual hopeless competitiveness of the races. Do read BOZmail Rule number Six again before you make your decision! It’s an anything could win race. I might wait for Thursday and the Gold Cup.

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STAGGERED ACCA RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 10 points

Stands at 10 points.

Staggered acca number 11: (LEG 1)

Will shout when I’m ready to start another go at the acca

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Good Luck with your bets.

BOZ

The BOZmail golden rules:

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(the boz’s job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a lay price or if a specified low lay tissue price goes on a significant drift. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges. As from March 2019 onwards, advised not to take BETFAIR SP prices on lays following some adverse returns therein over the January/February period. The recommendation is always to secure a price (if possible) within the published parameters when actually placing the lay bet. Your discretion based on personal form study also encouraged to ensure you maximise returns.The staking advices are a general rather than rigid dictate – mainly for the less experienced and those not able to spend time watching markets develop and practising the optimum betting time skill.

5/ Always keep in mind the long term ‘importance of  breaking even’ philosophy and practice. This is very much used by The Boz in his staking advices and is recommended in your betting practices – especially during the down spells – in order to maintain a healthy and consistent bank.

6/ Always remember the BOZ does traditionally suffer from Murphys Law. If he expresses his opinion but states that he won’t be betting on it himself and isn’t making it an official tip, remember that historically these can be his best advices! The 2019 Grand National opinion expressed paid a £2,260-93 tricast for a £60 (£1×60) permed stake (five selections).

7/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been the BOZ’s mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year he packs in.

“I play cautiously and strategically with bank management also always in mind. The staggered acca is the attempt to win large from small stake. The LIM is the cashbuilder to gradually accumulate profit over a 12 month period.”  Boz

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