BOZmail – 19th JUNE

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2020 home of the BOZmail

Welcome to the BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet. 

THE BOZmail@Royal Ascot: Day Four

I haven’t actually spotted any horses dumping before the off at Royal Ascot yet and no-one has mailed in to say they saw Muker at it before his off but several of you have mailed in that Dark Vision did before his 15/2 canter in. I missed that. Be under no illusion, Toiletwatch is still very much on!

FRIDAY JUNE 19th  2020 

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 LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Currently stands at : 18.7525 points (-1.2475 points)

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TENNIS & TO FOLLOW HORSE BACK/TRADE STARTING BANK = 8 points

Currently stands at : 12.778 points (+4.778 points)

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OCCASIONAL ACCA STARTING BANK = 5 points

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SPECIAL ROYAL ASCOT FESTIVAL BANK = 5 points

Currently stands at : 4.446 points (-0.554 points)

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Post Lockdown Litmus Test Bozbets = (+0.085 points)

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BOZmail 2020 cycle PART ONE(1/2 – 31/5) overall profit = +4.2876 points

                                       PART TWO(1/6 – 31/1 )  overall profit = +3.0615 points

PART ONE LIM 2020 Strike Rates: Lays: 25/41 = 60.97%  Backs: 9/29 = 31.03%

PART TWO LIM 2020 Strike rates: Lays 3/8 = 37.5%  Backs : 0/5 = 0%

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LESS IS MORE: 

4-20 NEWMARKET

Couple of seconds is all I can boast at Ascot on here. Fixed odds tipping form remains subdued whilst Shortlist did considerably better on Day 3 and posted an 11.8 point profit. Going to leave a tricky looking day four to him and come back on Saturday with my final to follow candidate trade to see if I can’t make it a good week of that at least.

Meanwhile the question of LIM looms and no doubt the nettle has to be grasped again at some point and whilst my instincts are still shouting July 1st or when NH racing resumes, I do want to keep in practice and have had a good look at this race.

I can find three negatives for Tulip Fields as fav. He isn’t guaranteed to like soft ground, isn’t proven over distance or with obvious stamina in pedigree and stable jockey Joe Fanning deserts him to go to Ascot leaving job jock Harry Bentley to substitute. Bentley is ok and rides rarely for Johnston so not necessarily a negative that but enough to conclude that he’s short at around 11/8 and may be layable at shorter. Won just 5 days ago so turned round fast but a very different track test here. Seemed suited by the downhill at Goodwood on fast ground. A slog up the dip in soft a very different test. Does get bottom weight but that includes a 6lb penalty and he faces two decent soft ground sorts in Tribal Craft and Point in Time. Marbella also boasts soft ground form. Tribal Craft is the class of the race but does have to give the fav over a stone and fitness must also be taken on trust. Likewise Point in Time who comes out top on my figures and has course and distance winning form.

Plenty to take a short fav on with and whilst I’m not wading in because of current LIM form, I do need to keep oiled and practising and haven’t given up on repairing the June score just yet. Just need to get a couple of race reads right. Won’t do that without trying and there’s enough here to take the Tulip on.

Recommendation:

0.2pt LAY on TULIP FIELDS (around 2.4 but lower if you can get it) 

THEBOZmail at Royal Ascot (5 point bank): Day Three

The Nap: 4-40 AFRICAN DREAM @ 2/1 – 0.1pt – LOST

The Lay of the Day: 3-35 STRADIVARIUS @ 8/13 – 0.1pt – LOST

The Value outsiders Acca:  2-25 MYSTERY POWER @ 16/1 – U

                                                  3-35 NAYEF ROAD @ 11/1 – 2nd

                                                  4-10 SUN POWER @ 28/1 – U

                                                    4-40 DUBAI LOVE @ 7/1 – 2nd

0.005pt EACH WAY LUCKY 15 = TOTAL STAKE of 0.15 points –

Returned 0.066 points

LIM Scores in June:

5th:  -0.355 (-0.355) Lay @ 2.02 : Back @ 9.4

6th-8th: NO BETS

9th:  +0.048 (-0.307) Lay @ 2.8 : Back @ 14.0

10th: +0.0735 (-0.2335) Lay @ 6.0

11th:  -0.23     (-0.4635) Lay @ 2.5 : Back @ 6.2

12th: +0.098  (-0.3835) Lay @ 1.66

13th: -0.24     (-0.6235) Lays @ 3.2 & 4.4 : Backs @ 5.0 & 7.0

14th: -0.216  (-0.8395) Lay @ 2.44

15th: -0.408  (-1.2475) Lay @ 2.54 : Backs @ 4.4 & 9.4

16th: NO BET

17th: NO BET

18th: NO BET

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BOZmail 2020 – Horses to follow on the flat:

Frankly Darling – Entered for The Oaks (July 4)

Muker – Entered for York (Aug 20)

Significantly – Entered for York (Aug 20) & Doncaster (Sep 10)

Malotru

English King – Entered for The Derby (July 4)

Ransom

Run Wild – Entered for The Coronation Stakes (June 20) & The Oaks (July 4)

Virgin Snow

Collinsbay – Entered for Doncaster (Sep 10)

Uncle Jumbo – Entered for Newbury(July 18)&York(Aug 20)&Doncaster (Sep 10)

Following Muker’s sterling run in the Windsor Castle, I’ve gone back to the Significantly race at Haydock and upgraded that form which brings The Queen’s Collinsbay and Uncle Jumbo on to the to follow list for premium trading opportunity later in the year. Significantly also stays on, sure now to win his race soon enough.

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A few of you wrote in with frustrations at missing the best of the Muker trade on Wednesday. Smarkets apparently not as good a place to play as Betfair is. Don’t know about that because I rarely used smarkets but there are several general principles that apply to all. I’ve reproduced some of what I’ve been saying to individuals here for general interest/education for those new to trading…….

Trading in running is a different mindset to gambling. You have to be out of the emotional bubble of wanting your pick to win and just focussed on the practicalities of greening the position. So on big positions like that one was (with little stake liability) you have to almost be tuned in to hoping he doesn't win because you are almost certainly chucking 50% of your winnings away in the hedge if he does. That's me speaking as someone who finds not caring about a result quite tough. I know pro traders who couldn't give a fig about results. What they call sitting on the fence compassion. Fuck the result. The object is equal payout win or lose. 

When you think like that it takes the fun of the sport away. I'm half way there to that now (after nearly twenty years of practising) but still prefer gambling if I'm honest! Trading is guaranteed profit. There's a challenge in gambling!

Of course you can have your £2 on at 110 and ring fence that and leave it alone. In other words, gamble and trade. I know a few who do that.

Gamble with small money. Trade with the lumps. Gotta be ruthless as a trader then though and never tempted to let the trade ride as a gamble. I've worked more on making sure I know whether I'm gambler or trader before I go in these days though. And increasingly, I'm trader 90% of the time now. Just gamble on the horses I care about (and am prepared to lose on). Not talking as a tipster there of course. Bottom line is that I'm only a tipster because that is what most customers want me to be. But it is going out of fashion. All my long term customers who have stuck with me have moved over to the trade game as they see how it works and have practised their methods………..

………….remember the scouts motto. To be a consistently good in play trader you gotta be prepared. Have the hedges in place before the race begins. The key ones anyway. Especially on big pricers. And start getting used to the feeling of having dumped half your ‘winnings' if the bugger goes on and wins.

Its winning on losers that is the object of trading. That's my view anyway. If you really think its a cert to win, don't trade. 

Gamble.

BOZ

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The BOZmail golden rules:

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(the boz’s job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a lay price or if a specified low lay tissue price goes on a significant drift. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges. The recommendation is always to secure a price (if possible) when actually placing the lay bet. Your discretion based on personal form study and watching the markets develop also encouraged to ensure you maximise returns.The staking advices are a general rather than rigid dictate – mainly for the less experienced and those not able to spend time watching markets develop and practising the optimum betting time skill. Remember also that a lay price available at a significantly lower level than stated on the sheet offers opportunity to increase lay stake without increasing calculated safe lay liability. This can be a key profit optimising tool in the long term if your form study agrees with that published by The Boz.

5/ Always keep in mind the long term ‘importance of  breaking even’ philosophy and practice. This is very much used by The Boz in his staking advices and is recommended in your betting practices – especially during the down spells – in order to maintain a healthy and consistent bank.

6/ Always remember the BOZ does traditionally suffer from Murphys Law. If he expresses his opinion but states that he won’t be betting on it himself and isn’t making it an official tip, remember that historically these can be his best advices! The 2019 Grand National opinion expressed paid a £2,260-93 tricast for a £60 (£1×60) permed stake (five selections). 

7/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been the BOZ’s mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year he packs in.

“I play cautiously and strategically with bank management always in mind.”  Boz 

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