BOZmail – 19th JULY

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2019 home of the BOZmail

Welcome to the new BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet. 

FRIDAY JULY 19th  2019 

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 LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Stands at 48.248 points after month 7 (+28.248 points profit)

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2019 BOZMAIL TENNIS WINNINGS:

Current Total      = +8.3313 points

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LESS IS MORE: FRIDAY PLAY

7-50 NEWMARKET

Didn’t get anywhere near the lay on Dovils Date so that goes down as a void lay bet and profit on Thursday thus reduced. But it keeps the winning sequence going and actually knocks the LIM bets to over 30% strike rate. Think that might be a first! Off to check the record books!

Tricky playing in sprints and Ornate could win this again Friday as he did in 2017 but he’s a bad  value fav from a stable scoring 0% on the in running form chart over past 14 days and with a less than stupendous jockey on board (not that he’s bad, just not Ryan Moore!). Encore D’or would be my idea of value here with past form ahead of Ornate (albeit on the all weather and also past form behind on the turf) but is far from a consistent performer and is also probably held by Judicial at the weights. Both of those dropping in class and Judicial also well weighted to win this on past form with Ornate. You can’t rule out Junius Brutus either. Typical sprint. Run it four times, get four different winners. Hence….

Recommendation:

0.25pt LAY on ORNATE (around 2.8 : no greater than 3.2)

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This month plays so far:

1st:  +1.005 (+1.005) Lay @ 1.4 : Back @ 8.6

2nd: -0.636 (+0.369)  Lay @ 2.62 : Back @ 4.5

3rd:  +0.145(+0.514)  Lay @ 2.6 : Back @ 12.0

4th:   +0.145(+0.659) Lay @ 2.96 : Back @11.0

5th:    -0.4 (+0.259) Lay @ 3.0

6th:    +0.88 (+1.139) Lay @ 1.85 : Back @ 4.2

7th:   +0.643(+1.782) Lay @ 2.7 : Back @ 3.0

8th:   +0.932(+2.714) Lay @ 1.33 : Back @ 6.4

9th:   – 0.645(+2.069) Lay @ 2.98 : Back @ 7.0

10th: +0.196(+2.265) Lay @ 1.93 : Back @6.0

11th:   -0.33 (+1.935) Lay @ 1.72 : Back @ 7.0

12th:  +0.675(+2.61) Back @ 3.25

13th:  +0.735(+3.345) Lay @ 1.54

14th:   +0.49 (+3.835) Lay @ 1.84

15th:  +0.245 (+4.08)  Lay @ 2.72

16th:   +1.225(+5.305)Lay @ 2.32 : Back @ 10.0

17th:   +0.336(+5.641)Lay @ 4.0 : Back @ 2.4

18th:    +0.2 (+5.841) Backs @ 4.0 &4.5 : LAY unmatched

BLWM LIM strike rates:  LAYS: 129/191 = 67.53% :   BACKS: 39/129 = 30.23%

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SUMMER NH HORSES TO FOLLOW for TRADING or LIM PURPOSES:

Get out the Gate – Entered at Market Rasen (Jul 20)

Commodore Barry

Ennistown-Entered at Market Rasen(Jul 20)&Newton Abbot(Jul 21)&Southwell(Jul 23

Francky Du Berlais – Entered at Market Rasen(Jul 20)&Cartmel (Jul 22)

Kaizer – Entered at Musselburgh (Jul 23)

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HORSES TO FOLLOW ON THE FLAT:

Eightsome Reel 

Dee Ex Bee – Entered for Goodwood Cup (July 30)

Sir Dragonet – Entered for the QIPCO (September 14)&Irish St Leger (Sep 15) 

Raise You

Charl Brune

Ocean Paradise 

Maydanny

Roseman – Entered in the Juddmonte (Aug 21)

Pour Me A Drink 

Gold Stick 

Light Up Our Stars 

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STAGGERED ACCA RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 10 points

Stands at 10.49 points.

Staggered acca number 14: (LEG 2)

5-50 FFOS LAS – MIDNIGHT FOLIE – 0.5pt LAY @ around 4/9 ( I actually laid at 1.28!) WON

Over half a million quid traded on Betfair. If you were one of the trading layers, I say well done to you especially if you laid at the 1.05 in running that was got by quite a few (not me). I did tell you Millie Wonnacot was good and that it was not a straightforward task for the fav who clouted his fence and got done in the classic three horse race fashion by the one who let the front two soften each other up. And congrats if you got the 27/1 going on Prettylittlething before the off. I am of course regretting not going for the back now to start the staggered acca off. As an LIM, I would have put the value back up. I did say this bet was cursed this year but, hey, never bemoan a winner Boz!

The crucial thing is that I gave out Midnight Folie as a lay to you guys based on my form read Wednesday night but I also backed that up with my paddock watch tip which I give to just a select high paying few (some of whom of course were involved in that half a million trade). There is a BOZmailer who was with me in person at a recent Cartmel meet who will know what I am talking about. I only give the service on demand and concentrate on odds on shots only.

If my paper study flags it up, I offer it to customers (traders for the most part) who pay for me to attend the course and report on what I see. At the paddock sighting in Wales, Midnight Folie failed his BOZ fitness test in the paddock. As my colleague Matt Chapman would say, BOOM! Let me know if you want to get involved in future paddock watch plays.

Only for those into trading and with the cash to splash! email: garyboswell@hotmail.com

Will shout when I have the second leg of staggered acca number 14 ready.

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Good Luck with your bets.

BOZ

The BOZmail golden rules:

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(the boz’s job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a lay price or if a specified low lay tissue price goes on a significant drift. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges. As from March 2019 onwards, advised not to take BETFAIR SP prices on lays following some adverse returns therein over the January/February period. The recommendation is always to secure a price (if possible) within the published parameters when actually placing the lay bet. Your discretion based on personal form study also encouraged to ensure you maximise returns.The staking advices are a general rather than rigid dictate – mainly for the less experienced and those not able to spend time watching markets develop and practising the optimum betting time skill.

5/ Always keep in mind the long term ‘importance of  breaking even’ philosophy and practice. This is very much used by The Boz in his staking advices and is recommended in your betting practices – especially during the down spells – in order to maintain a healthy and consistent bank.

6/ Always remember the BOZ does traditionally suffer from Murphys Law. If he expresses his opinion but states that he won’t be betting on it himself and isn’t making it an official tip, remember that historically these can be his best advices! The 2019 Grand National opinion expressed paid a £2,260-93 tricast for a £60 (£1×60) permed stake (five selections). 

7/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been the BOZ’s mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year he packs in.

“I play cautiously and strategically with bank management also always in mind. The staggered acca is the attempt to win large from small stake. The LIM is the cashbuilder to gradually accumulate profit over a 12 month period.”  Boz 

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