BOZmail 19th JULY

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2020 home of the BOZmail

Welcome to the BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet. 


SUNDAY JULY 19th  2020 

*************************************************

 LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Currently stands at : 20.3658 points (+0.3658 points)

*************************************************

TENNIS & TO FOLLOW HORSE BACK/TRADE STARTING BANK = 8 points

Currently stands at : 14.0733 points (+6.0733 points)

*************************************************

OCCASIONAL ACCA STARTING BANK = 5 points

Currently stands at : 4.385 points (-0.615 points)

*************************************************

SPECIAL ROYAL ASCOT fixed odds bets = (-0.554 points)

******************************************

Post Lockdown Litmus Test Bozbets = (+0.085 points)

*************************************************

BOZmail 2020 cycle PART ONE(1/2 – 31/5) overall profit  = +4.2876 points

                                      PART TWO(1/6 – 31/1 )  overall profit = +5.3551 points

                                          BOZmail 2020 overall score = +9.6427 points

PART ONE LIM 2020 Strike Rates: Lays: 25/41 = 60.97%  Backs: 9/29 = 31.03%

PART TWO LIM 2020 Strike rates: Lays 23/31 = 74.19%  Backs : 2/11 = 18.18%

************************************************************************

LESS IS MORE: 

2-40 SOUTHWELL

Saturday’s Recommendation:

0.15pt LAY on ANNO MAXIMO (around 3.3 or lower if you can get it to be hedged when appropriate if trading is your chosen option. In play trading again not recommended here unless circumstance or markets change overnight)

Trade play: Laid @ 3.2 : Hedged 0.12pt @ 4.0 : P/L = +0.0294pts

 Non Trade Play: P/L = +0.147pts

1-0 to the traditional non traders! But both of us in profit!!

Well done if you traded successfully on Virgin Snow on Saturday. The drift was from 5.0 to 7.0 so easy to green. I decided to stay out – a general decision on the flat at the moment for me unless the horse is Muker or Malotru! My race read said she wouldn’t win and I doubted she would stay the extra distance despite the Oaks line in the pedigree. Worth putting that in your note books. She didn’t. Won’t be trading Ginistrelli at Southwell on Sunday either. A watch and see race as I know the Richards mare RubyTwo in that race and much prefer her winning favourite’s chance at the weights if not affected by the lockdown factor.

Sunday’s LIM has been a joy to prepare. Worth saying that before I start. Haven’t had a good one like this to go at since March and although it has early season/lockdown factors in it because only Hatcher has had a recent run, it nevertheless has the right shape for a serious BOZ play. In any normal year, I would be hotfooting to Southwell on Sunday to ensure a paddock watch. A crucial aspect before I ever put the mortgage on! But in the context of a race read, been very enjoyable to peruse. 

Basically Fanzio is an exciting prospect horse and he won his first handicap Chase LTO in reasonably impressive fashion at Stratford. Been bought in by Richard Hobson’s owners since as very much a long term Cheltenham tilt type investment. Only 5 years old and travels well on the flat and jumps neatly and was the horse handling the soft ground best that day at Stratford. Still a novice mind so I’d be wanting around 4/1 in a race like this up two grades in class with an 8lb penalty to carry. Instead of which, Hills put him in at Even money when they opened around 2pm Saturday and eased to only 5/4 by 4-30pm as I write this. I won’t be posting until after our Bath result is known so there will be a full spread of prices by then and we’ll see if he holds that short. If he does, they know something I don’t!

The race splits into two groups and all six horses can be given some sort of chance at winning. Of the younger brigade, Hatcher has the advantage of the recent run on the flat to blow cobwebs away and is similar profile to Fanzio without being quite as impressive as a long term prospect. Value price though of the top two in the market.

Candy Burg is even better value without penalty to carry that works against both the top two in the market. His downside is a possible preference for softer ground (that applies to Fanzio too) and maybe more of a staying test although Southwell is the right course for that. Main negative for him is stable form. Bowen’s not come back in best of fettle.

The other half of the field contains the old boys of which Croco Bay is the legend as a former Cheltenham Festival winner who is well in on best form but is 13 years old now so can be assumed not the most likely to be coming back from lockdown bouncing. McGroarty would be the class act in the race on form despite a propensity to occasional clattering of a fence but Newland’s stable coming to themselves now and he has some reasonable collateral with Double W’s making him the initial value of the race priced at 9/1 but Hills have revised that now to 13/2 and Bet 365 say 5/1 and I can leave him alone at that price. Double Ws however is outstanding value at Bet365s 10/1 if he returns in any kind of fitness and form. A summer horse these days (10 year old now) with past form winning FTO and running up a three race win sequence last year before tailing off a bit in the autumn campaign. I’ve taken his victory over Champagne at Tara at Stratford last year as my yardstick for measuring against Fanzio. Champagne at Tara went on after that to finish third in a Listed race at Ascot behind Diego du Charmil and Double Ws rode a pearler from the rear at Stratford under superb jockeyship from Leighton Aspell to score a decisive victory on the good ground he gets again here and in a time a full 12 seconds faster than Fanzio won at over same course and distance. Ground was softer for Fanzio of course but both horses ran on their preferred ground and Double Ws gets his again Sunday whilst Fanzio does not. Further more as a Novice Handicap Chase, Fanzio’s race involved jumping fewer fences (over same course and distance nevertheless) and although his jumping has largely been good for a novice, he is a front runner staying out of pressure against lesser horses throughout his form and gets much more of a proper test here. Not to mention the extra seconds that can be added to his comparison time with Double Ws for having had to jump fewer obstacles.

On a level playing field fitness and coming back from lockdown wise, I much prefer the chance of the experienced Chaser Double Ws and that’s without reference to the prices where of course one is far too short and the other too long (I’d have a fit Double Ws around 7/2).

So there’s your race read and mid season, with recent form to support it, I’d be mega strong confidence wise and recommending a robust traditional LIM play. I’m still of that mind to more modest stakes with the only negative for me that Fanzio has his usual jockey – the decent claimer Paul O’Brien who knows the horse well -up on board whilst Double Ws cannot be steered now by the retired Aspell and thus has the only ok sub Jamie Hamilton on board. Both yards have made no start to the post lockdown and the Jefferson yard of course notorious for their laid back approach to early season so that you never really know how primed their horses are. Even so, if those prices haven’t changed by 7-30pm Saturday night, the Boz moves in and recommends you do likewise. Those preferring the trade line for everything from now on should also have good scope to profit. With both prices wrong and likely to change in our trading favour through the market watch.  

Recommendation:

0.2pt LAY on FANZIO (around 2.7 or lower. Take the best price you can get)

0.1pt BACK on DOUBLE Ws (around 9.0 or better if you can get it.)

 LIM Scores in July:

1st:  +0.1054   (+0.1054) Lays @ 2.22 & 2.4 : Backs @ 3.1 & 2.56

2nd: -0.126      (-0.0206) Lay @ 1.48 : Backs @ 16.0 & 40.0

3rd:  +0.0232   (+0.0026) Lay @ 1.7 : Back @ 1.96

4th:   +0.1313  (+0.1339) Lay @ 2.76 : Back @ 4.0

5th:   -0.1         (+0.0339) Back @ 3.0

6th:   NO BET

7th:   +0.098   (+0.1319) Lay @ 2.5

8th & 9th: NO BET

10th: +0.1225 (+0.2544) Lay@ 3.05 : Back @ 5.5

11th: +0.0245 (+0.2789) Lay@ 4.0 : Back @ 5.4

12th: +0.098  (+0.3769) Lay@3.75

13th: +0.098  (+0.4749) Lay@3.08 : Back @ 4.13

14th: +0.049  (+0.5239) Lay@3.6 : Back @ 13.5

15th: NO BET

16th: -0.245  (+0.2789) Lay @ 1.98 

17th: + 0.0147 (+0.2936) Lay @ 3.0 : Back @ 3.3

18th:  +0.0294 (+0.323) Lay @ 3.2 : Back @ 4.0

******************************************************************

BOZmail 2020 – Horses to follow on the flat:

Muker – Entered for York ( Aug 20)

Significantly – Entered for York (Aug 20) & Doncaster (Sep 10)

Malotru 

English King 

Ransom

Virgin Snow 

Collinsbay – Entered for Chepstow (July 21) & Doncaster (Sep 10)

Uncle Jumbo – Entered for York (Aug 20) & Doncaster (Sep 10)

On My Way 

Battleground – Entered for Doncaster (Sep 10) & Curragh(Sep13)

Waseem Faris 

Little Chance

Samwell (FR)

Royal Air Force – Entered in the 2021 Derby (June 5)

BOZmail 2020 – NH Horses to follow (Part Two):

Aleatoric – Entered for Market Rasen (July 20)

Check My Pulse – Entered for Perth (July 21)

Ginstrelli 

Balagan 

Perle Rose

Ashutor – Entered for Stratford (July 21)

Sangha River – Entered for Market Rasen (July 20)

Captain Tom Cat 

Beholden

Lord Condi

Saint Sam (FR)

 **********************************************************************************

The BOZmail golden rules:

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(the boz’s job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a lay price or if a specified low lay tissue price goes on a significant drift. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges. The recommendation is always to secure a price (if possible) when actually placing the lay bet. Your discretion based on personal form study and watching the markets develop also encouraged to ensure you maximise returns.The staking advices are a general rather than rigid dictate – mainly for the less experienced and those not able to spend time watching markets develop and practising the optimum betting time skill. Remember also that a lay price available at a significantly lower level than stated on the sheet offers opportunity to increase lay stake without increasing calculated safe lay liability. This can be a key profit optimising tool in the long term if your form study agrees with that published by The Boz.

5/ Always keep in mind the long term ‘importance of  breaking even’ philosophy and practice. This is very much used by The Boz in his staking advices and is recommended in your betting practices – especially during the down spells – in order to maintain a healthy and consistent bank.

6/ Always remember the BOZ does traditionally suffer from Murphys Law. If he expresses his opinion but states that he won’t be betting on it himself and isn’t making it an official tip, remember that historically these can be his best advices! The 2019 Grand National opinion expressed paid a £2,260-93 tricast for a £60 (£1×60) permed stake (five selections). 

7/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been the BOZ’s mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year he packs in.

“I play cautiously and strategically with bank management always in mind.”  Boz 

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *