BOZmail – 19th JANUARY

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2019 home of the BOZmail

 

Welcome to the new BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet.

 

SATURDAY JANUARY 19th 2019

 

LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Stands at 25.5 points after month 1

 

LESS IS MORE: SATURDAY PLAY

1-50 ASCOT

The first cancelled meeting of the year so time to bring out a replacement bet on the tennis! (see below). Frost and snow forecast for the weekend too here up North! So leaving Haydock alone which has to survive an inspection and sticking to the Mares at Ascot. Very good race and not an obvious one for Jessica Harrington to enter Magic of Light in. I’m trusting she knows more than me about why it is a good idea! She doesn’t tend to come to the UK without purpose and this is a prize worth going for. Magic of Light’s Chase times equate with the best of the other’s hurdle times and she got on to my to follow list with that superb demolition of Drinks Interval here LTO. That Robbie Power also comes for the ride missing several opportunities at Navan also bodes well.

I have had a seriously good look at the form and am in mind to split my lay between two I don’t fancy which are Paul Nicholls’ If you say run which is surely going to be a better horse going left handed as it was in its inaugural two wins. Has continued to be campaigned at right handed tracks and winning at them so presumably Nicholls believes he can cure the hang which is pronounced at times. This is up in class though and is inferior on ratings and my figures to Magic of Light so I’ll take her on and also Jester Jet who has three negatives in stable/jockey on cold list, seconditis and a doubt about stamina for the trip. The danger for me would be Culture De Sivola with the Nick Williams yard still in flying form. Petticoat Tails is also dark horse cover.

Good race but still January and funny results occurring.

 

Recommendation:

0.15pt LAY on IF YOU SAY RUN

0.1pt LAY on JESTER JET

0.1pt BACK on MAGIC OF LIGHT

 

BLWM LIM strike rates:  LAYS: 35/43 = 81.39% :   BACKS: 6/26 = 23.07%

 

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NH TO FOLLOW LIST STARTING BANK = 15 points

Stands at 14.9 points

 

The Bozmail to follow list has a combination of simply the most exciting horses I’ve seen in current race watching and a selection of those I’ve gotten to know over the years who are getting close to the place where they can be expected to win again. The list is ever changing and I have a subs bench of horses waiting to get on all the time. Candidates also disappear with regularity if they underperform or look to have shot their bolt in the win. So a fluid list that you’ll see altering all the time. I’ll log entries on this sheet as they occur and recommend staking advices on the day they are due to run after I’ve had chance to assess the race they are competing in. These selections can be backed to fixed odds or traded either in or before running as is your preference. There is profit whichever way you play over time.

 

From June 2018, The Bozmail switched to recommending trading the majority of these runners, including inplay trading, to back at optimum prices and hedge accordingly when appropriate. Profit figures were increased on previous years because of that so if you feel confident enough to approach like that, by all means. I will certainly be playing that way. I shall however post as fixed odds selections and the service arbiter will settle all results to Betfair SP in line with his fairness to all policy.

 

2019 BOZmail NH JUMPERS TO FOLLOW:

(* indicates early candidates for Cheltenham Festival Glory)

Willoughby Court *

Waiting Patiently * – Entered for Leopardstown (Feb 2 & 3)

Rebel Og  

Return Ticket  

Adjourned

Dynamite Dollars  

Itchy Feet *

Frodon *

Ask Paddington

Lady Buttons *

Ribble Valley  

La Bague au Roi *  – Entered for Leopardstown (Feb 3)

Benatar *

Captain Zebo

Magic of Light  

Unwin VC

Nicolas Chauvin

Vinndication *

Valtor

Ruby Yeats

Lostintranslation*

Cliffs of Dover*

Ebony Gale

Zakharova  

Indian Opera

 

NH TO FOLLOW RUNNERS ON FRIDAY JAN 18:

2-10 CHEPSTOW – UNWIN VC – 0.1pt @ 16/1 or better – FINISHED 9th of 16

Was travelling well but hit 3 out and lost all momentum. Disappointing as market showed signs he was fancied to do better. Possibly didn’t stay although LTO was this distance and breeding suggests he should have. Suspect they might try back in distance but also maybe just needs more time and a softer race. I stick with him for now.

NH TO FOLLOW RUNNER ON SATURDAY JAN 19:

3-00 ASCOT – BENATAR – 0.1pt @ 9/2 or better

Competitive race but handicapped to his best as a novice and due a win on course and distance he prefers.Down in class. No excuses except that it’s January!

 

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AUSTRALIAN OPEN TENNIS – Friday night at Midnight:

Two observations to reveal at this point. 1/ The big hitters are all doing well and remain in the draw suggesting that the courts are playing pretty fast. You saw it particularly in the Konta v Muguruza match where both players were at the top of their game and playing through each other with regularity. Especially significant for Muguruza who traditionally struggles to impose her game on hardcourt. Sharapova’s win over Wozniacki was also marked by the Russian’s ability to play through the Danish defending champion who is often able to match Sharapova but not so much here.   Second thing is that the arrival at the 2017 US Open of an all American semi finals was first indication of a strengthening in depth for the stars and stripes at the top of the women’s game. That has continued and is marked again here on the similar surface with that same potential in the ballpark again. I am using both observations to form the proposed bet:

My sweep through the remaining players has suggested the bet on the semi-finalists is the play at this stage rather than a portfolio in the outrights. The presence of Serena in the sort of form she is (where the only person likely to beat her is herself) suggests caution in that department. I do think she may struggle to go the distance but it’s only a maybe now that I’ve seen her! So playing to predict the final four is a safer bet at this stage I feel.  

1st Quarter: SERENA WILLIAMS @ 6/5

Those who joined me in opposing Serena pre-tournament can retain hope despite the way the champ is playing as she does have a tough group to exit starting tonight with the unknown quantity that is 18 year old Ukrainian Dayana Yastremska followed then by Halep or Venus followed by likely either Pliskova or Muguruza. All of those last four come into the big hitting brigade who have beaten her before but as I state above, despite having a tough group to exit, Serena only really loses to any of the above if she is distracted or off her game. The trick will be to stay with her and strike late if she doesn’t wobble and those I fancy to do that are more in the other quarters of the draw. So based on what I’ve seen so far and the analysis of the draw, I expect Serena to make SF. American number one!

2nd Quarter: MADISON KEYS @ 5/1 (6.6 on the exchanges)     

This is my value bet on another American big hitter who has been getting deeper into the slams lately and made that 2017 US final mentioned earlier. Can be mentally brittle but has benefited greatly on that score courtesy of her association with Lindsay Davenport. Has to get past Mertens tonight then likely Svitolina and Osaka and whilst she will be outsider for the last two in the betting, she has back score plusses against all three. Osaka and Svitolina both come in with new confidence and impetus but Keys remains the biggest hitter of them all and this is her surface. If you followed my pre-tournament outright on Svitolina I will likely be hedging that after her match v Zhang tonight (assuming she gets through that). She will not be value as favourite against Keys in my opinion now that I’ve seen the draw. Keys is American number two!

3rd Quarter: MARIA SHARAPOVA @ 3/1  saver: AMANDA ANISIMOVA @ 11/2

This is also a value bet. I hadn’t been expecting Sharapova to make any kind of comeback from the drugs ban lay off and it has taken her a while to recover her hunger and fitness. Vintage Sharapova however in the dismissal of Wozniacki. The ferocity of the hitting and the grunting was phenomenal and the stare was intense evil personified. In that mode Sharapova the control freak is seriously difficult to stand up against. This had been Sabalenka or Kvitova’s quarter but the former was humbled by an electric display from American big hitter number three, the 17 year old Amanda Anisimova who is not unlike a young Sharapova as the Russian was when winning Wimbledon as a teenager. She could be anything so I perm her into this bet also as value outsider if she can keep the shocks coming. Kvitova remains in strong form but at top ten player level she struggles on surface and is traditionally inferior to and intimidated by a Sharapova in full flow. At the prices, the Czech is now poor value. Likewise homegirl Barty who has both the advantage and albatross of home crowd support and expectation. In tennis terms, she moves well and fights hard and is in terrific form but will seriously struggle to contain both the Sharapova and Kvitova piledrivers. An alternative singles play in this quarter is to Lay Barty.

4th Quarter: SLOANE STEPHENS @ 5/2   saver: DANIELLE COLLINS @ 10/1

Value here aswell as the fourth part of the possible all US semi final line-up. Angelique Kerber is quarter favourite and has returned undoubtedly to her 2016 form as she showed at Wimbledon last year. 12 months in the doldrums in 2017 where she lost her mojo has skewed back stats a bit but can’t disguise the astonishing 1-5 head to head she has against Sloane Stephens. The American had her own dip after winning her inaugural slam in 2017 but rallied through the latter part of 2018 and has regained her big hitting all American style now. And in previous Kerber-Stephens encounters, the German has been singularly unable to contain the booming Serena-like forehand of the American. Matches were never even close. That may change here but the value is in staying with the proven Stephens especially as Kerber has to first get past Collins and that could be a close match if Collins can reproduce the intensity she conjured to dismiss Garcia. Some massive hitting on the run from the young American who is the nation’s number four ranked player now after a steady rise the past two years.Will be no surprise to me to see an all American quarter final here. Nor even Collins going on if she maintains her form. Another quarter with a value saver built in.

How to bet: not always easy to get multiples on these quarter winners as some bookmakers suspend one half of the draw whilst the other is in play but several offering all four quarter prices as I write. I placed my multiples with Bet 365 and my singles on the Betfair exchange: I recommend 4 x 0.25pt singles with a 0.1pt single on each named saver.        I will also be playing 4 x 0.05pt trebles on the four main selections and a 0.05pt four timer for a total spend of 1.45 points. I will be disappointed not to show a profit on that outlay.     

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STAGGERED ACCA RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 10 points

Stands at 9.5 points.

Staggered acca number 5:

 

Awaiting the emergence of the next weapons grade selection before setting out again

on leg 1.

 

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Good Luck with your bets.

 

BOZ

 

The BOZmail golden rules:

 

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(that’s my job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a price. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges)

5/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been my mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year I pack in.

 

I play cautiously and strategically with bank management also always in mind. The staggered acca is the attempt to win large from small stake. The LIM is the cashbuilder to gradually accumulate profit over a 12 month period.

 

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