BOZmail – 19th FEBRUARY

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2020 home of the BOZmail

Welcome to the BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet. 

WEDNESDAY FEBRUARY 19th  2020 

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 LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Currently standing at 20.657 points

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TENNIS & TO FOLLOW HORSE TRADE STARTING BANK = 8 points

Currently standing at 9.2041 points

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OCCASIONAL ACCA STARTING BANK = 5 points

Currently standing at 5.07 points

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LESS IS MORE: Wednesday play

4-30 DONCASTER

Just three LIM qualifiers on Wednesday. And all three with an odds on fav who can’t be opposed on form and yet all also have questions to answer. A question of looking for which one gets beat and why. Laurina in the 1-40 at Punchestown and she’s been dire last twice over fences and goes back over hurdles here. Will munch it back to old form but does face some opposition if remaining off her game. Lord of the Lodge was second in the Gimcrack and is seriously slumming it back on the all weather at Newcastle (3-40). What would be the reason for that? (no idea – can’t even guess) and she has proved brittle in the past although her last two runs make her scorching hot for this if she comes back fit and likes the surface. If and if.

Captain Cattistock is the one I could oppose most I suppose although stable and owner connections make him understandably shortest of the lot because his rivals on paper look either crocked or three legged. He’s young and from one of the country’s two premier trainers – Paul Nicholls.  Beaten favourite last three times however and doesn’t like winning. Or maybe doesn’t like Hunter Chasing. It’s David Maxwell who does. Beaten LTO by Mustmeetalady but on 7lb better terms here and over further which if back to his old best makes him a shoo in. Just a Par and Band of Blood have form to beat him from two years ago but are both old aged pensioners now. Just a Par was a neighbour of mine last year. Brought to the Moffat yard for the Becher and the National. Actually ran ok in the Becher but that was over a year ago and he’s 13 now. Almost zimmer frame time!  You have to believe the point to point at Bangor blew his cobwebs away and same re Band of Blood at Musselburgh. Both small possibles. So all about price seeing as Captain Cattistock likes getting beat lately. He might have an attitude problem. Some horses develop that. Maxwell might not be the best to get them out of their sloth either. You can hear me trying to convince myself here but 4/7 and 1.68 on the exchanges as I write is short and so low risk and will probably go even lower if the stable doesn’t put any negative vibe out. At 2/5 or 2/7 I’d play just as a price exertion such is the uncertainty about him still being in love with the game. Jonjo’s ought to take advantage if he isn’t and so might the other two if discovering their youth. Fancy it?

No problem if you decide to sit on last three days’s winnings and call a No Bet day for yourself. I may also join you at 4/7. At 1/2 or less, I’ll have a tiny play seeing as it is all there is for the day. Both To Follows are also non runners.

Recommendation:

0.15pt LAY on CAPTAIN CATTISTOCK ( around 1.49 or less if you can get it )

LIM 2020 Strike Rates: Lays: 9/14 = 64.28%  Backs: 2/7 = 28.57%

THE BOZ’s daily LIM record for FEBRUARY:

1st:  +0.196  (+0.196) Lay @ 3.3

2nd: +0.147 (+0.343) Lay @ 2.28

3rd: +0.196 (+0.539) Lay @ 2.9

4th:  NO BET DAY

5th: NO BET DAY

6th: +0.097 (+0.636) Lay @ 2.5 : Back @ 15.0

7th: -0.288 (+0.348) Lay @ 1.96

8th:   -0.2 (+0.148) Back @ 2.56

9th: RACING ABANDONED

10th: -0.21 (-0.062) Lay @ 2.4

11th: -0.191 (-0.253) Lay @ 1.94 : Back @ 14.0

12th: +0.6223 (+0.3693) Lays @ 2.64 & 3.04 : Back @ 6.4

13th:  -0.14 (+0.2293) Lay @ 2.4

14th:  +0.147 (+0.3763) Lays @ 4.2 & 4.65(in running) : Back @ 14.0

15th:  -0.204 (+0.1723) Lay @ 2.36

16th:  +0.098 (+0.2703) Lay @ 2.4

17th:  +0.086 (+0.3563) Lay @ 2.7 : Back @ 6.6

18th:  +0.3007 (+0.657) Lay @ 2.66 : Back @ 3.05

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WINTER NH HORSES TO FOLLOW for TRADING or LIM PURPOSES:

Unwin VC* 

Tea Clipper* 

Black Op – Entered for RSA & Marsh Novices (Mar 11&12)

Verdana Blue – Entered for Champion Hurdle & Mares Hurdle (Mar 10)

Maire Banrigh* – Entered for Arkle (Mar 10) & Marsh Novices (Mar 12)

Wenceslaus* – Entered for Huntingdon (Feb 20)

Thyme Hill* – Entered for Ballymore & Albert Bart(Mar 13)

Nordano* 

Indian Opera

Lady Bowes 

Vinndication 

Lostintranslation* – Entered for Gold Cup at Cheltenham (Mar 13)

Cat Tiger* – Entered for Ballymore (Mar 11) & Albert Bartlett (Mar 13)               

Welsh Saint* 

Normandy Soldier* 

Jatiluwih 

Esprit Du Large – Entered for The Arkle (Mar 10) & Marsh Novices (Mar 12)

Magic of Light* – Entered for  Chelt (Mar 10) & Grand National (Apr 4)

Defi Sacre* 

Lieutenant Rocco – Entered for Warwick (Feb 21) & the Albert Bartlett Novice (Mar 13)

Israel Champ

Soaring Glory 

Ambion Hill 

Quick Wave

It’safreebee 

Sporting John – Entered for Exeter (Feb 21) & Supreme & Ballymore at Cheltenham

Captain Zebo

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ANTE POST ACCA FOR CHELTENHAM FESTIVAL:

Lostintranslation @ 8/1

Verdana Blue @ 33/1

Marie Banrigh @ 25/1

Thyme Hill @ 6/1

0.01pt WIN ACCA with acca edge accepted. 

 Good Luck with your bets.

BOZ

The BOZmail golden rules:

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(the boz’s job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a lay price or if a specified low lay tissue price goes on a significant drift. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges. The recommendation is always to secure a price (if possible) when actually placing the lay bet. Your discretion based on personal form study and watching the markets develop also encouraged to ensure you maximise returns.The staking advices are a general rather than rigid dictate – mainly for the less experienced and those not able to spend time watching markets develop and practising the optimum betting time skill. Remember also that a lay price available at a significantly lower level than stated on the sheet offers opportunity to increase lay stake without increasing calculated safe lay liability. This can be a key profit optimising tool in the long term if your form study agrees with that published by The Boz.

5/ Always keep in mind the long term ‘importance of  breaking even’ philosophy and practice. This is very much used by The Boz in his staking advices and is recommended in your betting practices – especially during the down spells – in order to maintain a healthy and consistent bank.

6/ Always remember the BOZ does traditionally suffer from Murphys Law. If he expresses his opinion but states that he won’t be betting on it himself and isn’t making it an official tip, remember that historically these can be his best advices! The 2019 Grand National opinion expressed paid a £2,260-93 tricast for a £60 (£1×60) permed stake (five selections). 

7/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been the BOZ’s mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year he packs in.

“I play cautiously and strategically with bank management always in mind.”  Boz 

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