BOZmail – 19th DECEMBER

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2019 home of the BOZmail

Welcome to the BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet. 

THURSDAY DECEMBER 19th  2019 

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 LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Stands at 64.8785 points after month 12 (+44.8785 points profit)

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STAGGERED ACCA FINAL 2019 P/L SCORE:

= -0.6points

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2019 BOZMAIL TENNIS WINNINGS:

Current Total      = +7.5813 points

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THE BOZ’s 2019 TO FOLLOW & TENNIS TRADES P/L:

Current Total      = +17.5652 points

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BOZMAIL 2019 COMBINED PROFIT TOTAL = +69.425 points

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LESS IS MORE: THURSDAY PLAY

3-20 EXETER

Well, Wednesday did not go the way I anticipated with more of Mr Antolini not jumping well enough – but you saw the LIM way again in winning even when we are on a loser. That, without doubt, its greatest strength and thanks to all those new members writing in with thanks for the current unbeaten streak and its timeliness in paying for Xmas expenses. Always work with that in mind at this time of year and December is usually a month you can win in. The best is hopefully still to come!

Put Magic of Light on the to follow list as well with a view to this year’s National. I confess to not really forseeing her as a National horse when I was following last year but she ran in my National Tricast that got away like a natural and looked it again at Newbury on Wednesday. Only about 60% fit but staying on and jumping well under some good competition from a Field Exhibition who was unlucky to unseat at the last. Harrington’s horse is big and oozes staying class so I reckon Mrs H will fancy her chance of lowering the Tiger’s colours this year now she knows what she’s got.

Thursday is final day for monthly renewals and I can confirm the plans for January 1st to January 19th on the BOZmail now as decisions have been finalised at BOZ Towers. LIM will be rested as per plan and the advice will be to bank all December & 2019 winnings in preparation for the serious start to the 2020 cycle on February 1st.

Then join me in January for a BOZmail special 19 days of the shortlist system. Playing with pennies rather than pounds, I will be doing daily betting advices (both back,lay and accumulator) drawn from the shortlist system which I co-devised back in the early noughties and which led to the biggest win of my betting career in April 2013. I’ll be telling that story over the 19 days interlaced with live shortlist inspired advices on a daily basis with all the usual cashbuilder caution and profit protection built in so that we’ll end the 19 days ahead but hopefully also land one of the new year crackerjack bets that I’ll be lining up on a daily basis. Don’t miss it!  

Then the advertised 12 day break before 2020 LIM cycle begins remembering that your deadline for signing up for that as a current member at the discounted price will be December 31st. Filling up nicely but still some current member places spare after which, whilst we will be 19 days in the BOZmail Penny arcade, marketing will be working on the new member places throughout January at the full membership price.

That would be still available to you should you miss the December 31st deadline but you seriously don’t wanna be paying that!

Thursday is the first of the three days racing before Xmas where we have several to follows to trade aswell as LIMs to play. I go to Exeter for the last – a Handicap Chase – as my LIM with the play a lay on Venetia Williams’ second fav Eceparti who will like the ground and distance but is up in class and has a hefty penalty to carry for last two wins both under a claiming jockey so is effectively penalised between 14 and 16lb which I’d say makes this a big ask. The fav has only 6lb extra for his win LTO at Sandown on a formline I am following that includes Defi Sacre who you may remember as one of my December losers who I took a chance on at Musselburgh.

Won again at Newbury on Wednesday and is starting to show those Sprinter Sacre traits that are in the blood (same sire). Jumped impressively to beat a strongish field and gets on to my to follow list now as another we should follow. Won’t be laying him again!

There is good LIM cover in this with Just Don’t Ask who looks better on times than Eceparti and the lay price on Venetia’s horse may also be shorter than the tissue I quote given that Le Coeur Net is a likely non runner after running well today behind Defi Sacre. Fort Gabriel is an interesting dark horse at a long price,

Recommendations:

0.3pt LAY on ECEPARTI (around 3.5 or shorter : upper value parameter would be 4.0 in a five horse race and 3.6 in a four horse affair)

0.1pt BACK on JOHNBB

0.05pt BACK on FORT GABRIEL

BLWM LIM strike rates:  LAYS: 215/322 = 66.77% :   BACKS: 57/213 = 26.76%

This month’s scores so far:

1st:   +0.245 (+0.245) Lay @ 2.5 

2nd:  -0.36   (-0.115) Lay @ 2.44

3rd:   +0.096 (-0.019) Lay @ 3.1 : Back @ 9.0

4th:   NON RUNNER

5th:   +0.144 (+0.125) Lay @ 2.0 : Backs @ 4.5 & 21.0

6th:   -0.081 (+0.044) Lays @ 2.2 & 5.6 : Back @ 6.0

7th:   +0.898 (+0.942) Lay @ 3.13 : Back @ 7.04

8th:    -0.526 (+0.418) Lay @ 2.88 : Back @ 4.1

9th:    -0.2275(+0.1905) Lay @ 1.91

10th:   +0.245 (+0.4355) Lay @3.35

11th:    +0.047 (+0.4825) Lay @ 2.08 : Back @ 11.5

12th:    NON RUNNER

13th:    +0.294 (+0.7765) Lay @ 2.86

14th:    +0.147 (+0.9235) Lay @ 1.8

15th:    +0.4555 (+1.379) Lay @ 2.44 : Back @ 3.25

16th:    +0.294 (+1.673) Lay @ 4.0

17th:    +0.196 (+1.869)  Lay @ 2.88

18th:    +0.096 (+1.965) Lay @ 3.7 : Back @ 9.0

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WINTER NH HORSES TO FOLLOW for TRADING or LIM PURPOSES:

Unwin VC – Entered for Ascot (Dec 20)

Kaizer* 

Tea Clipper* – Entered for Ascot (Dec 21)

Nube Negra 

Black Op – Entered for Stayers Hurdle (Mar 12)

Verdana Blue – Entered for Champion Hurdle (Mar 10)

Maire Banrigh* 

Wenceslaus* 

Flic Ou Voyou 

Thyme Hill* 

Nordano 

Indian Opera

Lady Bowes 

Floressa* 

Vinndication –Entered for Ascot (Dec 21) + King George & Gold Cup!

Lostintranslation* – Entered for King George,Ryanair & Gold Cup

Cat Tiger 

Welsh Saint* 

Normandy Soldier* 

Ribble Valley* – Entered for Ascot (Dec 20)

Kid Commando – Entered for Ascot (Dec 20)

Jatiluwih

Soaring Glory – Entered for Ascot (Dec 20)

Esprit Du Large

Magic of Light

Defi Sacre

HORSE TO FOLLOW/TRADE on THURSDAY:

1-20 EXETER – UNWIN VC @ 5/1 – 0.25pt BACK

Pretty keen on this with the CatTiger form at Exeter two runs back working out well for us with wins for Welsh Saint and Normandy Soldier since and the 3rd that day – Saint De Reve has also won since. Likely short priced fav Lossiemouth looks a question mark at the distance so I’m tempted to back only here but the question mark for UnwinVC is that although this is back in a novice and will be easier than LTO, he has been a disappointment really jumping so far after scintillating bumper form. Being patient with him because he looks a possible top chaser in the making and he hails from a small stable that I like at Bob Buckler’s. He also not particularly in form at the moment nor his stable apprentice who keeps the ride – Sean Houlihan. He is still learning the jumps game but rode both bumper wins – the second a notable powerful ride under penalty – and there would be no doubting that this horse is the stable star.

My heart tells me I want this to win so I may leave the trade but in view of stable form, a small hedge might be prudent at some point if you are offered it. The brave punter who misses it out here although that may be me this time. I wear this horse on my sleeve! Be sure to take best price you can for the back.

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PLANS for the 2020 BOZmail:

The main development for next year is an annual subscription service only which will become available for purchase from December 1st 2019 and will be limited to first 150 purchasers. Membership will be closed when that number is reached or on January 31st 2020. Activity will begin on 1st February 2020.

The 2020 service will not be covering horseracing during January 2020 nor September 2020 as statistics have shown these to be negative months for LIM.

The 2020 BOZmail cycle will thus be a 10 month cycle completing on December 31st 2020.

The reason for annual subscription membership only is so that all members will be at same bank management level throughout. This enables The Boz to practice greater profit reinvestment in his staking levels (thus increasing overall profitability). Something that has not been possible in the 2019 cycle where new members were joining all the time and members were thus at varying bank levels throughout – leading The Boz to be more cautious in his staking levels than was ideal.

Membership of the 2020 BOZmail is recommended for those with some experience of how the service works (at least a month to six weeks)  although new members will be admitted up to the subscription closing date on January 31st 2020 if places are still available. First chance to purchase subscription however will be made to current members only. The service will only be advertised to non members after December 31st 2019 if some places are still available. The capping of numbers for the service is hopefully self explanatory to those who have experience of the service.

There will be some changes to content although the main focus will remain on the daily LIM service and the to follow trading advices in UK horse racing. Tennis coverage of the women’s Grand Slams will be limited to Wimbledon and the French Open only in 2020. There will be ad hoc accumulator advices throughout the cycle as they arise. The staggered acca approach practised in 2019 however will be discontinued. Simply hasn’t been as successful as hoped.

Never afraid to cull its dead wood is the BOZmail!

There are plans to introduce a paddock watching element to the service and to organise various days at the races during the year for those interested in advancing paddock watching skills and using these as an enhancement to their punting profitability generally. Details of these days will be available to BOZmail annual subscriber members only and will come at no extra charge (other than responsibility for paying own course entrance fee). The Boz is also publishing a guide to UK paddock watching in 2020 and will thus be in attendance at all UK racecourses at some point during the year collecting material for the book.

If you have any questions or queries about 2020 BOZmail annual membership at this stage, please feel free to contact The BOZ direct as always via email (garyboswell@hotmail.com). TGH Trading will be in touch in the coming weeks with personal invites to all current members to purchase first chance 2020 membership detailing cost etc. Opening date for purchasing 2020 membership will be December 1st 2019. First come,first served. 

With thanks to all who have supported the service in 2019 and here’s to a highly profitable and enjoyable 2020!

Cheers

 Good Luck with your bets.

BOZ

The BOZmail golden rules:

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(the boz’s job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a lay price or if a specified low lay tissue price goes on a significant drift. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges. As from March 2019 onwards, advised not to take BETFAIR SP prices on lays following some adverse returns therein over the January/February period. The recommendation is always to secure a price (if possible) within the published parameters when actually placing the lay bet. Your discretion based on personal form study and watching the markets develop also encouraged to ensure you maximise returns.The staking advices are a general rather than rigid dictate – mainly for the less experienced and those not able to spend time watching markets develop and practising the optimum betting time skill. Remember also that a lay price available at a significantly lower level than stated on the sheet offers opportunity to increase lay stake without increasing calculated safe lay liability. This can be a key profit optimising tool in the long term if your form study agrees with that published by The Boz.

5/ Always keep in mind the long term ‘importance of  breaking even’ philosophy and practice. This is very much used by The Boz in his staking advices and is recommended in your betting practices – especially during the down spells – in order to maintain a healthy and consistent bank.

6/ Always remember the BOZ does traditionally suffer from Murphys Law. If he expresses his opinion but states that he won’t be betting on it himself and isn’t making it an official tip, remember that historically these can be his best advices! The 2019 Grand National opinion expressed paid a £2,260-93 tricast for a £60 (£1×60) permed stake (five selections). 

7/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been the BOZ’s mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year he packs in.

“I play cautiously and strategically with bank management always in mind.”  Boz 


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