BOZmail 19th DECEMBER

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2020 home of the BOZmail

Welcome to the BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet

SATURDAY DECEMBER 19th  2020

 LESS IS MORE

LIM 2020 Strike rates: Lays 124/176 = 70.45%  Backs : 35/110 = 31.81%

1-40 NEWCASTLE

 Quite like this race and am playing to take us into Xmas week in good shape. She’sasupermack is very consistent and likes course and ground but does have seconditis and is up on a tough mark now 10lb higher than last won at. Must be vulnerable to at least one giving weight all round in a competitive looking race here.  Protek Des Flos and the long travelling Ballyhill both have good chances on the book. My vote however goes to Catamaran Du Seuil who was a long way adrift in comeback race but will strip fitter now for a Dr Newland outfit banging in the winners. Has won in very testing ground as likely to be in evidence tomorrow. Belted it down up North all day Friday and gets the much admired try hard jockey Lee Edwards in the saddle noted riding a good winner at Uttoxeter on Friday. This horse won well for us twice in 2018 and hasn’t won again since but has slipped down to very favourable mark as a result now.

Am fairly keen and only bank management stays my hand from a more sizable bet which I’ll save for after Xmas if we do well here.

I do also expect She’sasupermack to appear shorter than the 15/8 tissue I see on her. Play for best price you can get on both.

Recommendations:

0.15pt LAY on SHE’SASUPERMACK (around 2.9 and lower if poss)

0.1pt BACK on CATAMARAN DU SEUIL (around 5.5)

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BOZmail 2020 – NH Horses to follow (Part Two):

Parramount – Entered for Huntingdon (Dec 22)

Tamar Bridge

Wild Polly 

Straw Fan Jack 

Israel Champ

Bravemansgame 

Young Wolf 

Lady Bowes(soft) 

Captain Zebo 

Leoncavallo

Oscar Rose 

Charm Offensive 

Return Ticket(flat track) 

Boothill 

Lilly Pedlar

Getaway Luv

Across The Line

For Pleasure 

Shan Blue – Entered for Cheltenham (Mar 17 & 18)

Shang Tang 

Snow Leopardess 

Dusart 

Bobby Bow (heavy) 

Ga Law – Entered for Cheltenham (Mar 16,17 & 18)

First Flow 

Get Your Own

Thyme Hill – Entered for Cheltenham (Mar 17 & 18)

Floressa – Entered for Cheltenham (Mar 16)

Cheddleton 

Le Bateau

My Drogo

Allart

BOZmail Winter All Weather Horses To Follow:

Sealed Offer

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NH HORSES TO FOLLOW/TRADE at Ascot on FRIDAY:

12-45 – SHANG TANG @ 7/1 – 0.25pt BACK – NON RUNNER

3-35  –  MARBLE SANDS @ 12/1 – 0.25pt BACK

Backed @ 16.0 : hedged 0.4pt @ 7.0 : P/L = +0.147pts

Got a really good averaged trade price on Marble Sands by waiting til the seconds before the off as he lined up in front and had loads in my armoury for the 1.1 and 1.01 at the death trades but sadly ran well below expected and very much put in place by the Nicholls pair. Looks like I underestimated the effect of Lily Pinchin’s 7lb claim LTO.

So not as good as seemed and sights must now be lowered. Can come off list for a while until that takes effect. At least I got the LIM right!

NH HORSES TO FOLLOW/TRADE on SATURDAY:

12-20 HAYDOCK – CHEDDLETON @ 13/2 – 0.25pt BACK

2-25 ASCOT – THYME HILL @ 2/1 – 0.25pt BACK

Get the best prices you can and hedge as appropriate and/or when preferential odds are offered.

Both mega competitive again and same opinion as yesterday. Tough ground so greening out before the race is undoubtedly wise. Cheddleton has a real tough fav to get past but they were getting beaten on Friday for the most part!

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LIM Monthly Scores:

February: + 1.3496 points

March  : + 1.5866 points

UK RACING LOCKDOWN

April     : – 0.1733 points

May      : – 0.8359 points

UK RACING RESTARTED

June     : + 0.0428 points

July      : + 0.8046 points 

August :  +1.9726 points   (+4.747 points)

September : +1.0071 points (+5.7541 points)

October : + 2.1487 points (+7.9028 points)

November : +4.468 points (+12.3708 points)

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LIM Scores for December:

1st:   +0.098   (+0.098) Lay @ 3.2

2nd:  +0.098 (+0.196) Lay @ 2.04 : Back @ 7.0

3rd:   NO BET

4th:    -0.16    (+0.036) Lay @ 1.8

5th:    -0.308  (-0.272) Lay @ 2.98 : Back @ 8.0

6th:    +0.147 (-0.125) Lay @ 2.66

7th:    +0.147 (+0.022) Lay @ 2.24 : Back @ 8.0

8th:    -0.374   (-0.352) Lay @ 2.62 : Back @ 9.0

9th:   +0.7056 (+0.3536) Back @ 7.0

10th:  +0.049  (+0.4026) Lay @ 2.96 : Back @ 9.4

11th:  +0.098  (+0.5006) Lay @ 4.5

12th:   -0.225   (+0.2756) Lay @ 2.5

13th:   +0.882  (+1.1576) Back @ 7.0

14th:    +0.147 (+1.3046) Lay @ 1.76 : Back @ 100.0

15th:    NO BET

16th:    +0.0735 (+1.3781) Lay @ 2.2 : Back @ 300.0

17th:     -0.13      (+1.2481) Lays @ 3.3 & 5.5

18th:    +0.186   (+1.4341) Lay @ 2.3 

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BOZmail 2020 cycle : 2020 overall score = +54.2001points

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 LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Currently stands at : 33.8049 points (+13.8049 points)

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TENNIS & TO FOLLOW HORSE BACK/TRADE STARTING BANK = 8 points

Currently stands at : 50.3457 points (+42.3457 points)

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OCCASIONAL ACCA STARTING BANK = 5 points

Currently stands at : 4.1985 points (-0.8015 points)

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SPECIAL ROYAL ASCOT fixed odds bets = (-0.554 points)

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Post Lockdown Litmus Test Bozbets = (+0.085 points)

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Local Track Factor Section = (-0.68 points)

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The BOZmail golden rules:

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(the boz’s job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a lay price or if a specified low lay tissue price goes on a significant drift. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges. The recommendation is always to secure a price (if possible) when actually placing the lay bet. Your discretion based on personal form study and watching the markets develop also encouraged to ensure you maximise returns.The staking advices are a general rather than rigid dictate – mainly for the less experienced and those not able to spend time watching markets develop and practising the optimum betting time skill. Remember also that a lay price available at a significantly lower level than stated on the sheet offers opportunity to increase lay stake without increasing calculated safe lay liability. This can be a key profit optimising tool in the long term if your form study agrees with that published by The Boz.

5/ Always keep in mind the long term ‘importance of  breaking even’ philosophy and practice. This is very much used by The Boz in his staking advices and is recommended in your betting practices – especially during the down spells – in order to maintain a healthy and consistent bank.

6/ Always remember the BOZ does traditionally suffer from Murphys Law. If he expresses his opinion but states that he won’t be betting on it himself and isn’t making it an official tip, remember that historically these can be his best advices! The 2019 Grand National opinion expressed paid a £2,260-93 tricast for a £60 (£1×60) permed stake (five selections).

7/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been the BOZ’s mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year he packs in.

“I play cautiously and strategically with bank management always in mind.”  Boz

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