BOZmail – 19th AUGUST

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2019 home of the BOZmail

Welcome to the new BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet. 

MONDAY AUGUST 19th  2019 

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 LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Stands at 55.451 points after month 8 (+35.451 points profit)

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2019 BOZMAIL TENNIS WINNINGS:

Current Total      = +8.3313 points

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THE BOZ’s 2019 TO FOLLOW & TENNIS TRADES P/L:

Current Total      = +5.7452 points

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LESS IS MORE: MONDAY PLAY

6-40 BANGOR

See the Sea has to improve again on handicap debut taking on a whole bunch of dangers in a very competitive field. Skelton’s So Lonely is the main danger back down in class after a tilt at the Galway Festival and actually holds See The Sea on maiden hurdle form. I wouldn’t totally rule out or be surprised to see Inn the Bull or Zenafire in the winner’s enclosure but I actually think the two to concentrate on are Outcrop – who only has 2lb penalty to carry for a course and distance win LTO that was achieved in a quick enough time to worry the front two in the betting – and the value of the race who is Solstalla. Don’t know much about the small stable but 100% running to form over past 14 days is encouraging. Worcester winning form often doesn’t compare or travel all that well but his win there reads very well in the context of this race and the booking of David Bass in the saddle might mean a strong ride. The reason for my picking him as the back however is that second time out since a wind op. Significant winner stat.

I’d say Murphy’s Law struck again on Sunday’s LIM. Following my dismal experience with the LIM rejects treble, my rationale decides to come right the day after as the mention for Smile A Mile proved bang on in a generally accurate race read! Hey ho. A winner’s a winner!

Recommendations:

0.2pt LAY on SEE THE SEA (around 3.3 : no greater than 3.7)

0.1pt BACK on SOLSTALLA (around 11.0 or better)

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This month plays so far:

1st:       +1.244(+1.244) Lay @ 1.85 : Back @ 4.8

2nd:      -0.5465(+0.6975) Lay @ 1.99 : Back @ 3.3

3rd:       -0.024 (+0.6735) Lays @2.08 & 2.08 : Back @ 11.5

4th:       +0.045(+0.7185) Lay @ 3.45 : Back @ 11.0

5th:       +0.196(+0.9145) Lay @ 2.08

6th:        -0.48 (+0.4345) Lay @ 3.4

7th:        +0.39 (+0.8245) Lay @ 1.69 : Back @ 11.0

8th:        -0.4425(+0.382)  Lay @ 1.55 : Backs @ 6.4 & 4.1

9th:        +0.245 (+0.627) Lay @ 2.2

10th:       -0.655 (-0.028)  Lay @ 1.71 : Back @ 5.6

11th:       +0.147(+0.119) Lay @ 4.4

12th:       +0.145(+0.264) Lay @ 1.73 : Back @ 55.0

13th:       +0.145(+0.409) Lay @ 4.1 : Back @ 6.2

14th:       +1.434(+1.843) Lay @ 2.06 : Back @ 8.6

15th:        -0.3 (+1.543) Lay @ 1.6

16th:        NON RUNNER

17th:        +0.565(+2.108) Lay @ 1.55 : Back @ 4.2

18th:        +0.245(+2.353) Lay @ 2.1

BLWM LIM strike rates:  LAYS: 148/219 = 67.57% :   BACKS: 44/149 = 29.53%

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SUMMER NH HORSES TO FOLLOW for TRADING or LIM PURPOSES:

Commodore Barry

Kaizer 

Caius Marcius 

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HORSES TO FOLLOW ON THE FLAT:

Eightsome Reel 

Dee Ex Bee – Entered for Qipco Cup at Ascot (Oct 19)

Raise You – Entered for Ascot (Oct 19)

Maydanny

Roseman – Entered for Ascot (Oct 19)

Light Up Our Stars 

Waldpfad – Entered in Haydock Sprint Cup (Sep 7) & Ascot (Oct 19)

Miss Celestial 

Deirdre – Entered for Irish Champion Stakes at Leopardstown (Sep 14)&Ascot(Oct 19)

Piedita – Entered at Kempton (Aug 21)

James Watt – Entered for Ayr Gold Cup (Sep 21)

Lord of the Lodge – Entered at York (Aug 21) & in the Gimcrack (Aug 23)

HORSE TO FOLLOW/TRADE on SUNDAY

3-30 PONTEFRACT – MISS CELESTIAL @ 20/1 or better (Backed @ 25.0 ; hedged @ 7.0 = +0.95pt P/L)

The more I looked at Miss Celestial, the keener I got despite the wide draw. Without that, I think she might have won. Definitely stays on the list as a winner waiting to happen. One of my stronger trades. Took a point at 24.0 before the off and took 2pts @ 7.0 as her run started to look a possible winning one. She went as low as 6.4 and rewarded each way punters by finishing third still staying on.

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STAGGERED ACCA RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 10 points

Stands at 9.12 points.

 Acca number 18: 

Will shout as the final staggered acca starter emerges.

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US OPEN PORTFOLIO:
 

Recommendations: 

1.5pt LAY on SERENA at around 6.4 

0.25pt BACK on AMANDA ANISIMOVA at 40/1 

0.25pt BACK on CORI GAUFF at 80/1 

0.25pt BACK on SOFIA KENIN at 66/1 

0.25pt BACK ON DANIELLE COLLINS at 250/1  

 Good Luck with your bets.

BOZ

The BOZmail golden rules:

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(the boz’s job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a lay price or if a specified low lay tissue price goes on a significant drift. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges. As from March 2019 onwards, advised not to take BETFAIR SP prices on lays following some adverse returns therein over the January/February period. The recommendation is always to secure a price (if possible) within the published parameters when actually placing the lay bet. Your discretion based on personal form study also encouraged to ensure you maximise returns.The staking advices are a general rather than rigid dictate – mainly for the less experienced and those not able to spend time watching markets develop and practising the optimum betting time skill.

5/ Always keep in mind the long term ‘importance of  breaking even’ philosophy and practice. This is very much used by The Boz in his staking advices and is recommended in your betting practices – especially during the down spells – in order to maintain a healthy and consistent bank.

6/ Always remember the BOZ does traditionally suffer from Murphys Law. If he expresses his opinion but states that he won’t be betting on it himself and isn’t making it an official tip, remember that historically these can be his best advices! The 2019 Grand National opinion expressed paid a £2,260-93 tricast for a £60 (£1×60) permed stake (five selections). 

7/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been the BOZ’s mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year he packs in.

“I play cautiously and strategically with bank management also always in mind. The staggered acca is the attempt to win large from small stake. The LIM is the cashbuilder to gradually accumulate profit over a 12 month period.”  Boz 

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