BOZmail 19th AUGUST

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2020 home of the BOZmail

Welcome to the BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet. 

WEDNESDAY AUGUST 19th  2020 

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 LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Currently stands at : 22.2152 points (+2.2152 points)

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TENNIS & TO FOLLOW HORSE BACK/TRADE STARTING BANK = 8 points

Currently stands at : 15.5237 points (+7.5237 points)

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OCCASIONAL ACCA STARTING BANK = 5 points

Currently stands at : 4.655 points (-0.345 points)

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SPECIAL ROYAL ASCOT fixed odds bets = (-0.554 points)

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Post Lockdown Litmus Test Bozbets = (+0.085 points)

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Local Track Factor Section = (-0.53 points)

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BOZmail 2020 cycle PART ONE(1/2 – 31/5) overall profit  = +4.2876 points

                                      PART TWO(1/6 – 31/1 )  overall profit = +8.3949 points

                                          BOZmail 2020 overall score = +12.6825 points

PART ONE LIM 2020 Strike Rates: Lays: 25/41 = 60.97%  Backs: 9/29 = 31.03%

PART TWO LIM 2020 Strike rates: Lays 43/55 = 78.18%  Backs : 7/25 = 28%

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LESS IS MORE:

3-05 STRATFORD

Decent race read on Tuesday but the rain I was expecting didn’t come and the weather is an issue again on Wednesday not suiting either Monsieur D’Arque or Atlantic Storm. You can probably scrub the back on the Summers runner if it has bucketed down and going is soft. Should it remain quick ground, I was looking at a decent bet but already good to soft and more rain forecast for Wednesday morning.

Monsieur D’Arque was impressive LTO but is heavily penalised and with that ground not suiting either does look a safe lay. But not going overboard stake wise again with Ashutor a good to follow horse as fav to beat it with proven form on bottomless ground but very much a Novice chaser so a decided case of no back on him at the short price despite his being a to follow. Not a smidgeon of value in that.

Indeed, if it is bucketing down, the value in the race will probably be Fanzio but not a race I feel bullish about in view of uncertainty about the weather so I remain in cautious mode. Just a lay of the Skelton horse unless the rain doesn’t arrive again in which case I also play the back on Atlantic Storm.

Recommendations:

0.15pt LAY on MONSIEUR D’ARQUE (around 2.8) 

0.05pt BACK on ATLANTIC STORM (around 7.0 but only played if the forecast rain stays away)

LIM scores for August:

1st :  NO BET

2nd : +0.0886  (+0.0886) Lay @ 1.93 : Back @ 7.0

3rd:   +0.0245  (+0.1131) Lay @ 3.75

4th:   +0.385    (+0.4981) Lays @ 3.75 & 3.3 :Backs @ 15.0 & 3.75

5th:   +0.0671 (+0.5652) Lay @ 2.38 & 14.0 : Backs @ 19.0 & 4.0

6th:    NON RUNNER

7th:    +0.049  (+0.6142) Lay @ 4.4 : Back @ 7.0

8th:    -0.475 (+0.1392) Lay @ 2.5 : Back @ 6.4

9th:    NO BET

10th:  +0.441 (+0.5802) Lay @ 3.75 : Back @ 8.0

11th:  +0.686 (+1.2662) Back @ 6.6

12th:  +0.0392 (+1.3054) Lay @ 3.75 : Back @ 5.9 

13th:   NON RUNNER

14th:   +0.0294 (+1.3348) Lay @ 1.94 : Back @ 2.2

15th:   NO BET

16th:    -0.124  (+1.2108) Lays @ 2.8 & 4.2

17th:   NO BET

18th:    +0.147 (+1.3578) Lay @ 1.98 : Back @13.0

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BOZmail 2020 – Horses to follow on the flat:

Muker 

Ransom

Uncle Jumbo – Entered for York (Aug 20) & Doncaster (Sep 10)

On My Way – Entered for York (Aug 20)

Battleground – Entered for  Curragh (Aug 22&Sep13)

Royal Air Force – Entered in the 2021 Derby (June 5)

Alicestar – Entered at Salisbury (Aug 21)

Custard The Dragon

BOZmail 2020 – NH Horses to follow (Part Two):

Check My Pulse – Entered at Cartmel (Aug 23)

Balagan 

Ashutor – Entered for Stratford (Aug 19) & Newton Abbot (Aug 21)

Sangha River 

Captain Tom Cat 

Lord Condi 

Saint Sam (FR)

Rubytwo – Entered at Uttoxeter (Aug 22)

Pisgah Pike – Entered for Newton Abbot(Aug 21)

Hiconic

Young Wolf

Sirobbie – Entered at Uttoxeter (Aug 22)

Little Jessture 

Soldier of Love 

Lady Bowes 

Captain Zebo

Defi Sacre

Sporting Press

Global Tour 

Samsons Reach – Entered at Chepstow (Aug 23)

Leoncavallo

Longhouse Sale

Oscar Rose

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LIM Monthly Scores:

February: + 1.3496 points

March      : + 1.5866 points

UK RACING LOCKDOWN

April         : – 0.1733 points

May          : – 0.8359 points

UK RACING RESTARTED

June         : + 0.0428 points

July          : + 0.8046 points  (+2.7744points)

The BOZmail golden rules:

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(the boz’s job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a lay price or if a specified low lay tissue price goes on a significant drift. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges. The recommendation is always to secure a price (if possible) when actually placing the lay bet. Your discretion based on personal form study and watching the markets develop also encouraged to ensure you maximise returns.The staking advices are a general rather than rigid dictate – mainly for the less experienced and those not able to spend time watching markets develop and practising the optimum betting time skill. Remember also that a lay price available at a significantly lower level than stated on the sheet offers opportunity to increase lay stake without increasing calculated safe lay liability. This can be a key profit optimising tool in the long term if your form study agrees with that published by The Boz.

5/ Always keep in mind the long term ‘importance of  breaking even’ philosophy and practice. This is very much used by The Boz in his staking advices and is recommended in your betting practices – especially during the down spells – in order to maintain a healthy and consistent bank.

6/ Always remember the BOZ does traditionally suffer from Murphys Law. If he expresses his opinion but states that he won’t be betting on it himself and isn’t making it an official tip, remember that historically these can be his best advices! The 2019 Grand National opinion expressed paid a £2,260-93 tricast for a £60 (£1×60) permed stake (five selections). 

7/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been the BOZ’s mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year he packs in.

“I play cautiously and strategically with bank management always in mind.”  Boz 

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