BOZmail – 19th APRIL

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2019 home of the BOZmail

Welcome to the new BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet.

GOOD FRIDAY APRIL 19th 2019

LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Stood at 26.0 points after month 1

Stood at 25.83 points after month 2

Stood at 27.28 points after month 3

Stands at 36.0395 points after month 4

LESS IS MORE: FRIDAY PLAY

4-25 NEWCASTLE

Good Friday will be second leg of the staggered acca day as the day’s two LIM qualifiers both come up strong. I keep this as the better value one with the fancy for Gantier to give the weight after War Tiger advertised the form in a hot race earlier in the week. Favourite Smarter looks very short to me at 6/4 for winning a poor Southwell race and I did consider a double lay as Bo Samraan stepping up in distance has to show improved form to beat the Gosden horse in my book. The stable may know something regarding him though with the price being so short. So I’ll have him as cover. Both stable form in running figures and jockey booking also make Gantier a good value pick at 4/1.

Recommendation:

0.3pt LAY on SMARTER ( around 2.5 : no greater than 2.9)

0.1pt BACK on GANTIER (around 5.0)

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This month plays so far:

1st: NON RUNNER  

2nd:   +0.355 (+0.355) LAY @ 1.9 : BACK @ 2.6

3rd:     -0.6 (- 0.245) LAY @  2.5 : BACK @ 10.0

4th:     +0.24 (- 0.005) LAY @  3.8

5th:     +0.044(+0.039) LAY @ 3.5 : BACK @ 3.5

6th:     +0.343(+0.382) LAY @ 2.2

7th:     +0.39 (+0.772) LAY @ 2.52 : BACK @ 12.0

8th:     – 0.52 (+0.252) LAYS @ 3.6 & 4.7 : BACK @ 9.2

9th:     – 0.26 (- 0.008) LAY @ 1.8 : BACK @ 8.0

10th:   – 0.276(- 0.284) LAY @ 1.88 : BACK @ 22.0

11th:   – 0.34 (- 0.624) LAY @ 2.2  : BACK @ 10.5

12th:   +0.343 (- 0.281) LAY @ 3.2

13th:   +0.294 (+0.013) LAY @ 3.4

14th:   +0.243 (+0.256) LAY @ 3.2 : BACK @ 7.0

15th:   +0.545 (+0.801) LAY @ 4.0 : BACK @ 4.5

16th:   +0.193 (+0.994) LAY @ 2.86 : BACK @ 6.0

17th:   +0.098 (+1.092) LAY @ 4.0

18th:   +0.193 (+1.285) LAY @ 2.42 : BACK @ 8.69

BLWM LIM strike rates:  LAYS: 87/123 = 70.73% :   BACKS: 19/80 = 23.75%

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STAGGERED ACCA RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 10 points

Stands at 9.15 points.

Staggered acca number 9: (LEG 2)

1-50 BATH – THE CRUISING LORD – 0.4pt BACK @ 6/5

Global Prospector ran a decent debut but not against anything much and nowhere near the class The Cruising Lord showed in the Cornwallis LTO. Stable are running at 80% to form so time off course may not hamper and times and ground favour the Attwater horse who takes a serious drop in class and has ratings on his side and breeding to suggest the extra half furlong will suit. Clive Cox’s sprinters not yet got going particularly and this one has to do the old chestnut of reproducing all weather form on very different ground. Fairly confident as a free bet but if it fails may well call time on the staggered acca as a concept on this sheet – needing greater patience than I am currently able to give. Might ask your opinion on that before I decide! Let’s see how it goes first.

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Good Luck with your bets.

BOZ

The BOZmail golden rules:

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(the boz’s job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a lay price or if a specified low lay tissue price goes on a significant drift. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges. As from March 2019 onwards, advised not to take BETFAIR SP prices on lays following some adverse returns therein over the January/February period. The recommendation is always to secure a price (if possible) within the published parameters when actually placing the lay bet. Your discretion based on personal form study also encouraged to ensure you maximise returns.The staking advices are a general rather than rigid dictate – mainly for the less experienced and those not able to spend time watching markets develop and practising the optimum betting time skill.

5/ Always keep in mind the long term ‘importance of  breaking even’ philosophy and practice. This is very much used by The Boz in his staking advices and is recommended in your betting practices – especially during the down spells – in order to maintain a healthy and consistent bank.

6/ Always remember the BOZ does traditionally suffer from Murphys Law. If he expresses his opinion but states that he won’t be betting on it himself and isn’t making it an official tip, remember that historically these can be his best advices! The 2019 Grand National opinion expressed paid a £2,260-93 tricast for a £60 (£1×60) permed stake (five selections).

7/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been the BOZ’s mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year he packs in.

“I play cautiously and strategically with bank management also always in mind. The staggered acca is the attempt to win large from small stake. The LIM is the cashbuilder to gradually accumulate profit over a 12 month period.”  Boz

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