BOZmail – 18th SEPTEMBER

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2019 home of the BOZmail

Welcome to the new BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet. 

WEDNESDAY SEPTEMBER 18th  2019 

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 LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Stands at 57.0715 points after month 9 (+37.0715 points profit)

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2019 BOZMAIL TENNIS WINNINGS:

Current Total      = +7.5813 points

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THE BOZ’s 2019 TO FOLLOW & TENNIS TRADES P/L:

Current Total      = +12.3567 points

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BOZMAIL 2019 COMBINED PROFIT TOTAL = +57.0095 points

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LESS IS MORE: WEDNESDAY PLAY

3-40 KELSO

Well it weren’t big damage (unless you took the BSP and shame on yer if you did!) but a typical September weak day on Tuesday and shame on me for playing. Too much guesswork involved. Not impressed.

Not impressed with Wednesday’s cards either and have had to work hard to come to a play. Newtown Boy is the chosen lay. Not hugely confident again as has a few good plusses in jockey booking, move to stable that likes Kelso and getting a wedge of weight off the experienced class that is Nietzsche but on sheer form, there are reasons for taking him on. Nietzsche holds him on that Greatwood form over hurdles and is a decent chaser now although far from foot perfect yet. That is an advantage over Newtown Boy however who tipped up on debut and will need to regain confidence that may well hamper him here. Additionally, it can be supposed Nietzsche will be ok carrying the weight as he did so ok in his last win at Perth.

That doubt about both the front two’s jumping however does cause me to have a go at the surprise win for Placedela Concorde who also fell LTO in a hurdle race, tries fences for the first time and is from the out of form Maurice Barnes stable. Barnes likes Kelso however and although likely to finish 3rd at best if all jump well, there is actually a hurdle timeline that puts Placedela Concorde ahead of Newtown Boy which is all we need to create LIM value if the jolly should misfire. 33/1 best price on the tissue. Very speculative but should be longer on the exchanges tomorrow.

Recommendation:

0.25pt LAY on NEWTOWN BOY (around 2.5 : no greater than 2.7)

0.1pt BACK on PLACEDELA CONCORDE

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This month plays so far:

1st:    -0.24 (-0.24)  Lay @ 1.4 : Back @ 34.0  

2nd:   -0.25 (-0.49)  Back @ 2.2

3rd:    NO PLAY DAY 

4th:    +0.49 (+0.0) Lay @ 1.9  

5th:    -0.44 (-0.44) Lay @ 1.88    

6th:    -0.19 (-0.63) Lay @ 1.38

7th:    -0.542(-1.172) Lay @ 2.12 : Back @ 9.0

8th:     -0.6 (-1.772) Lay @ 3.0 : Back @ 12.0

9th:     +0.34(-1.432) Lay @ 1.75 : Backs @ 11.0 & 18.0

10th:   -0.483(-1.915) Lay @ 2.38

11th:   +0.095(-1.82) Lay @ 3.6 : Back @ 4.4

12th:   +0.13 (-1.69) Backs @ 4.8 & 4.8

13th:    -0.266(-1.956) Lay @ 1.76

14th:    +0.094(-1.862) Lay @ 4.0 : Back @ 6.6

15th:    +0.245(-1.617) Lay @ 3.7 

16th:    +0.954(-0.663) Lay @ 3.9 : Back @ 7.6

17th:    -0.1245(-0.7875) Lay @ 1.83

BLWM LIM strike rates:  LAYS: 159/243 = 65.43% :   BACKS: 46/164 = 28.04%

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STAGGERED ACCA RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 10 points

Stands at 10 points. 

Will shout when the new staggered acca first leg emerges.               

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SUMMER NH HORSES TO FOLLOW for TRADING or LIM PURPOSES:

Commodore Barry

Kaizer – Entered at Hamilton (Sep 22)

Caius Marcius – Entered at Newton Abbot (Sep 20)

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HORSES TO FOLLOW ON THE FLAT:

Eightsome Reel 

Raise You – Entered for Ascot (Oct 19)

Maydanny

Roseman – Entered for Ascot (Oct 19)

Waldpfad  – Entered for Ascot (Oct 19)

Miss Celestial – Entered at Curragh (Sep 28)

Deirdre – Entered at Longchamp (Oct 6) & Ascot(Oct 19)

Piedita 

James Watt – Entered for Ayr Bronze Cup(Sep 20) & Gold & Silver Cup (Sep 21)

Lord of the Lodge 

Mum’s Tipple – Entered for  Newbury (Sep 21) & Newmarket (Sep 28) & (Oct 12)

 Good Luck with your bets.

BOZ

The BOZmail golden rules:

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(the boz’s job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a lay price or if a specified low lay tissue price goes on a significant drift. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges. As from March 2019 onwards, advised not to take BETFAIR SP prices on lays following some adverse returns therein over the January/February period. The recommendation is always to secure a price (if possible) within the published parameters when actually placing the lay bet. Your discretion based on personal form study also encouraged to ensure you maximise returns.The staking advices are a general rather than rigid dictate – mainly for the less experienced and those not able to spend time watching markets develop and practising the optimum betting time skill.

5/ Always keep in mind the long term ‘importance of  breaking even’ philosophy and practice. This is very much used by The Boz in his staking advices and is recommended in your betting practices – especially during the down spells – in order to maintain a healthy and consistent bank.

6/ Always remember the BOZ does traditionally suffer from Murphys Law. If he expresses his opinion but states that he won’t be betting on it himself and isn’t making it an official tip, remember that historically these can be his best advices! The 2019 Grand National opinion expressed paid a £2,260-93 tricast for a £60 (£1×60) permed stake (five selections). 

7/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been the BOZ’s mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year he packs in.

“I play cautiously and strategically with bank management also always in mind. The staggered acca is the attempt to win large from small stake. The LIM is the cashbuilder to gradually accumulate profit over a 12 month period.”  Boz 

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