BOZmail 18th SEPTEMBER

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2020 home of the BOZmail

Welcome to the BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet 

FRIDAY SEPTEMBER 18th  2020 

BOZmail 2020 cycle : 2020 overall score = +15.6257 points

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 LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Currently stands at : 25.0749 points (+5.0749 points)

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TENNIS & TO FOLLOW HORSE BACK/TRADE STARTING BANK = 8 points

Currently stands at : 19.5363 points (+11.5363 points)

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OCCASIONAL ACCA STARTING BANK = 5 points

Currently stands at : 5.1635 points (+0.1635 points)

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SPECIAL ROYAL ASCOT fixed odds bets = (-0.554 points)

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Post Lockdown Litmus Test Bozbets = (+0.085 points)

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Local Track Factor Section = (-0.68 points)

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LESS IS MORE

LIM 2020 Strike rates: Lays 78/110 = 70.90%  Backs : 20/65 = 30.76%

NO BET

What did ya reckon? First back to back LIM winner of the month so not eating my words in any event! Got half of it right in crabbing the micky mouse race WW ran in LTO. Personally however I’d say the hope that an outsider would come good was basically misplaced. LIM makes us a profit more than I’d say my race reading on the flat was back in kilter!

Might be being a bit harsh on myself but I have to say I was more taken with the market watch than the race itself and those of you now declaring that The Trade Paper project and four or five trade races a day is more the way you are keen to approach things in the future will have had fun with this one if you’ve already started!

Wondrous Words lay went as low as 1.76 after I took my gambler’s 1.8 last night but went on a serious drift out to 2.18 this morning allowing a decent trade as money came variously for Sootability,Sister Midnight and our Sarvi – on whom I managed 14.0 averaged last night including some at 16.5 and who traded at 8.4 and below at times today as not just my pick but Timeform’s as well. Shows what we know as he finished last! But another fine trade opportunity there.

And I think the thing I proved to myself earlier in the post lockdown period – that on the flat at least, investment betting is perhaps the better served by trading over gambling at the moment – holds true. 

Better flat race readers than me might disagree but I must say that today’s little experiment did suggest that maybe LIM on the flat is safe to return to now but I’m still inclined to be wary and with five days of NH racing starting on Saturday including two meetings a day for a couple of the days, I’ll perhaps take my chances on NH racing still for now and continue to monitor the flat.

And so I sit Friday’s final flat only day out. I did have an interesting angle to explore with Sister Midnight entered to run again on Friday but after the way Jim Goldie’s two ran today, I’ve decided to pass on that and let it run through with me watching only.

Still got my eye on the LIM annual profit which clicked over 5 points for the first time in 2020 with that modest effort. A long way still to go on that in this cycle and on balance I’ll be sticking to NH racing to try and build it up to a healthy finale. Updated entries list below instead of studying form today and one of the things that still dismays me is seeing the NH to followers entered to run on the flat. The third such in the past few weeks – something I’ve never seen happening so frequently in UK racing before. Cannot be good news but remains perhaps just a phase we are going through.

LIM SCORES FOR SEPTEMBER:

1st:  +0.196  (+0.196) Lay @ 3.55

2nd: NO BET

3rd:  -0.345  (-0.149) Lay @ 3.3

4th: NO BET

5th: NO BET

6th:  +0.1764 (+0.0274) Lay @ 1.84

7th: NO BET

8th:  -0.1       (-0.0726) Back @ 12.0

9th:  +0.3234 (+0.2508) Back @ 3.2

10th: NO BET

11th: NO BET

12th: -0.465 (-0.2142) Lay @ 2.86

13th: NO BET

14th: NO BET

15th: +0.4441 (+0.2299) Lay @ 2.2 : Back @ 3.45

16th: NO BET

17th: +0.098  (+0.3279) Lay @ 1.8 : Back @ 14.0

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BOZmail 2020 – Horses to follow on the flat:

Muker 

Ransom

Battleground – Entered for Newmarket (Sep26) & (Oct 10)

Royal Air Force – Entered in the 2021 Derby (June 5)

Alicestar

Custard The Dragon 

BOZmail 2020 – NH Horses to follow (Part Two):

Check My Pulse 

Balagan – Entered @ Warwick (Sep 21)

Sangha River 

Captain Tom Cat 

Saint Sam (FR)

Pisgah Pike 

Hiconic 

Young Wolf – Entered @ Newton Abbot (Sep 19) & Warwick (Sep 22)

Sirobbie 

Little Jessture – Entered on the flat @ Leicester (Sep 21)

Soldier of Love – Entered @ Newton Abbot (Sep 19)

Lady Bowes(soft) 

Captain Zebo

Defi Sacre

Sporting Press 

Samsons Reach 

Leoncavallo – Entered in the Cesarewitch (Oct 10)

Longhouse Sale 

Oscar Rose 

She’s a Rocca(heavy)

Charm Offensive

Timetoroe(heavy)

Baby Jane

Caius Marcius

Calum Gilhooly

The Butcher Said

Leapaway

Return Ticket(flat track)

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LIM Monthly Scores:

February: + 1.3496 points

March      : + 1.5866 points

UK RACING LOCKDOWN

April         : – 0.1733 points

May          : – 0.8359 points

UK RACING RESTARTED

June         : + 0.0428 points

July          : + 0.8046 points  

August    :  +1.9726 points   (+4.747 points)

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The BOZmail golden rules:

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(the boz’s job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a lay price or if a specified low lay tissue price goes on a significant drift. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges. The recommendation is always to secure a price (if possible) when actually placing the lay bet. Your discretion based on personal form study and watching the markets develop also encouraged to ensure you maximise returns.The staking advices are a general rather than rigid dictate – mainly for the less experienced and those not able to spend time watching markets develop and practising the optimum betting time skill. Remember also that a lay price available at a significantly lower level than stated on the sheet offers opportunity to increase lay stake without increasing calculated safe lay liability. This can be a key profit optimising tool in the long term if your form study agrees with that published by The Boz.

5/ Always keep in mind the long term ‘importance of  breaking even’ philosophy and practice. This is very much used by The Boz in his staking advices and is recommended in your betting practices – especially during the down spells – in order to maintain a healthy and consistent bank.

6/ Always remember the BOZ does traditionally suffer from Murphys Law. If he expresses his opinion but states that he won’t be betting on it himself and isn’t making it an official tip, remember that historically these can be his best advices! The 2019 Grand National opinion expressed paid a £2,260-93 tricast for a £60 (£1×60) permed stake (five selections). 

7/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been the BOZ’s mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year he packs in.

“I play cautiously and strategically with bank management always in mind.”  Boz 

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