BOZmail – 18th OCTOBER

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2019 home of the BOZmail

Welcome to the new BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet. 

FRIDAY OCTOBER 18th  2019 

STOP PRESS: THE GREY GOAT TO RUN AT CHELMSFORD 7-30 tonight!!

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 LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Stands at 57.666 points after month 9 (+37.666 points profit)

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2019 BOZMAIL TENNIS WINNINGS:

Current Total      = +7.5813 points

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THE BOZ’s 2019 TO FOLLOW & TENNIS TRADES P/L:

Current Total      = +13.2887 points

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BOZMAIL 2019 COMBINED PROFIT TOTAL = +58.536 points

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LESS IS MORE: FRIDAY PLAY

1-55 FAKENHAM

Not surprisingly, Lady Bowes makes the to follow list in a big way. That was a hot race and she played up a bit again before the race and thus encouraged a BSP of 229/1 and a place return of 35/1. But she ran with all the class you’d expect considering her owner/breeders who, if I haven’t told you before, live near me and are regular suppliers of youngsters to the yard of a certain WP Mullins in Ireland. They keep the odd one to race in their own colours and this is she. Previous winners for the the Moffatt yard are Highland Lodge who won the Bechers at huge odds (second the following year) and Bon Chic who also won at Aintree at odds of 33/1. Expect some time in the next two years that Lady Bowes will win at Aintree at monster odds. It is undoubtedly a little practised but very distinct pattern.

Very much a BOZmail rule 6 in my flagging it up and then staking it down and forgetting to cover the place element although I trust you guys enough now to not have to tell you about stuff like that. I got some 41/1 the place in running and if you are new to the way the market tends to treat the Moffatt stable (for reasons I still know not why) get used to those sorts of odds on his good horses. Jimmy does his bit in pulling the blinds down and running them to deceive the market very often. The general rule when to back a Moffatt runner is when most forgotten about or least expected to win. He is an excellent trainer. He doesn’t always look it and that’s the way he likes it and presumably why we always get such fabulous odds about his winners.

Put this one away under your hat for now. Keep what I’ve told you to yourself  and never forget it! It will reward you big time one day if you do.

My personal prediction is the 2024 Grand National winner. Soft ground withstanding.

I was right about that high knee and she also has a scooped hoof that you also want to see on soft ground horses. She looked a million dollars in the paddock and boy does she know it! Acted up like Marilyn Munroe when someone stole her pubic hair brush (you ever heard that story??). Absolute class. I’ll say no more.

Losing run punctured but back now to the workaday business of LIM repair and a decent one at Fakenham to hopefully make a big dent back in our favour. And I do like this one despite its being a seller at Fakenham. Ballyellis is a very short fav presumably cos he comes from Twistys yard but he has a clear form question mark in relation to Skeaping who he only beat one and a quarter lengths despite receiving 11lb weight in relation to the differentials for this one. That is turnaround time and although the ex-Gordon Elliot inmate has not been in great form since the switch to Phil Middleton’s stable, it was the 100% in running form figure for that yard that first got me looking at this race. You can crab that too given that it relates to just one runner in last 14 days but as an LIM play, it ticks all the boxes with value on Skeaping at 11/2 as against the odds on Twistys horse. Good LIM cover also in Irish Arcenfete who could be too heavily penalised but his OR is a guess so he could also be seriously well in whilst I actually rate Some Boy McCoy as the danger in the race on form. He could squeak it on paper against Skeaping and so I’m also playing reversed forecast in this race. It looks that good a call to me. Confidence obviously flowing again after putting up an 100/1 ISP placer who returned a BSP of 230. Happy days.

Recommendation:

0.75pt LAY on BALLYELLIS (around 2.1 : no greater than 2.4)

0.15pt BACK on SKEAPING (around 7.0)

0.05pt REVERSED FORECAST – SKEAPING & SOME BOY McCOY

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BLWM LIM strike rates:  LAYS: 173/265 = 65.28% :   BACKS: 49/180 = 27.22%

This month’s scores so far:

1st:    -0.838 (-0.838) Lay @ 2.68 : Back @ 3.3

2nd:   -0.216 (-1.054) Lay @ 2.08

3rd:    +0.245(-0.809) Lay @ 1.66

4th:    +0.144(-0.665) Lay @ 2.6 : Back @ 12.0

5th:    +0.294 (-0.371) Lay @2.62

6th:    +0.145 (-0.226) Lay @ 4.09 : Back @ 5.0

7th:    -0.408 (-0.634) Lay @ 1.88 : Back @ 13.0

8th:    +0.558(-0.076) Lay @ 2.8 : Back @ 2.76

9th:    +0.196(+0.12) Lay @ 3.75

10th:  +0.49 (+0.61) Lay @ 1.76

11th:  +0.343(+0.953) Lay @ 3.0

12th:  -0.2   (+0.753) Back @ 1.99

13th:  RACING ABANDONED-WATERLOGGING

14th:  -0.64 (+0.113) Lay @ 2.8 : Back @ 32.0

15th:  -0.1   (+0.013) Back @ 6.0

16th:  -0.895 (-0.882) Lay @ 1.86 : Back @ 17.0

17th:  +0.097(-0.785) Lay @ 3.8 : Back @ 209.0

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STAGGERED ACCA RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 10 points

Stands at 10.41 points. 

Will shout as soon as third leg emerges.

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WINTER NH HORSES TO FOLLOW for TRADING or LIM PURPOSES:

La Bague au Roi

Unwin VC

Commodore Barry

Kaizer 

Raya Time

Tea Clipper

Nube Negra

Ballymoy

Verdana Blue

Maire Banrigh

Wenceslaus – Entered at Stratford & Market Rasen (Oct 19) & Plumpton (Oct 21)

Tokaramore 

Flic Ou Voyou

Thyme Hill

Nordano

Indian Opera

Lady Bowes

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WINTER ALL WEATHER HORSES TO FOLLOW ON THE FLAT:

The Grey Goat – Running at Chelmsford 7-30 Thursday night! 0.1pt Back to lay

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HORSES TO FOLLOW ON THE FLAT:

Raise You – Entered for Ascot (Oct 19)

Roseman – Entered for Ascot (Oct 19)

Waldpfad  – Entered for Ascot (Oct 19)

Deirdre – Entered at Ascot(Oct 19)

 Good Luck with your bets.

BOZ

The BOZmail golden rules:

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(the boz’s job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a lay price or if a specified low lay tissue price goes on a significant drift. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges. As from March 2019 onwards, advised not to take BETFAIR SP prices on lays following some adverse returns therein over the January/February period. The recommendation is always to secure a price (if possible) within the published parameters when actually placing the lay bet. Your discretion based on personal form study also encouraged to ensure you maximise returns.The staking advices are a general rather than rigid dictate – mainly for the less experienced and those not able to spend time watching markets develop and practising the optimum betting time skill.

5/ Always keep in mind the long term ‘importance of  breaking even’ philosophy and practice. This is very much used by The Boz in his staking advices and is recommended in your betting practices – especially during the down spells – in order to maintain a healthy and consistent bank.

6/ Always remember the BOZ does traditionally suffer from Murphys Law. If he expresses his opinion but states that he won’t be betting on it himself and isn’t making it an official tip, remember that historically these can be his best advices! The 2019 Grand National opinion expressed paid a £2,260-93 tricast for a £60 (£1×60) permed stake (five selections). 

7/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been the BOZ’s mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year he packs in.

“I play cautiously and strategically with bank management also always in mind. The staggered acca is the attempt to win large from small stake. The LIM is the cashbuilder to gradually accumulate profit over a 12 month period.”  Boz 

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