BOZmail 18th OCTOBER

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2020 home of the BOZmail

Welcome to the BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet 

SUNDAY OCTOBER 18th  2020 

BOZmail 2020 cycle : 2020 overall score = +35.6701 points

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 LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Currently stands at : 26.7608 points (+6.7608 points)

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TENNIS & TO FOLLOW HORSE BACK/TRADE STARTING BANK = 8 points

Currently stands at : 38.0948 points (+30.0948 points)

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OCCASIONAL ACCA STARTING BANK = 5 points

Currently stands at : 4.9635 points (-0.0365 points)

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SPECIAL ROYAL ASCOT fixed odds bets = (-0.554 points)

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Post Lockdown Litmus Test Bozbets = (+0.085 points)

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Local Track Factor Section = (-0.68 points)

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LESS IS MORE

LIM 2020 Strike rates: Lays 91/127 = 71.65%  Backs : 25/78 = 32.05%

2-22 KEMPTON

I’ve been moaning for so long now about limited LIM opportunity each day that I’ve forgotten the other problem of two really good ones to go at and having to choose between the two. That’s the issue for Sunday and I’ve pondered on the back of my first 100% win LIM week in ages (first of the year? Can’t actually remember pre March 17 any more!) with 6/6 and one No bet day since last Saturday. And the adrenalin from the Muker run is also still coursing through my veins (mixed with the Guinness – see below) so I’ve taken my time deciding which way to go on Sunday.

Basically things are settling back down now. I recognise the racing landscape again. The moved goalposts have been gotten used to (not quite used to the 2-22 as a race starting time yet!) and having ridden a stake up LIM losing blip start of October, I’m keen to kick the month on now in these last two weeks and see if we can’t get an old style monthly score the like of which we haven’t had since this time last year. So it’s been a serious business getting the which race to play issue right.

I don’t pass over the 3-32 lightly as I know the Verdana Blue/Silver Streak situation like the back of my hand and so the value on Silver Streak is very tempting with his record of having finished in front of VB both times they’ve met. Both in the top drawer 2019 Champion & Xmas Hurdle on his preferred soft ground. But giving the weight both times. Very hard to argue that that doesn’t make him the better horse of the two but I’m such a Verdana Blue fan and regulars will know I’ve always postulated her as champion hurdler the day it comes up good ground at the Festival. Two years in a row now that it hasn’t happened and didn’t even run this year as she was saved for an Aintree that didn’t happen when the ground came up soft again. She ain’t quite top drawer on soft. But this is good ground and thus could be considered her test. Gets the weight again from Silver Streak and is fit from the flat campaign she has been entered on in the absence of her two chances at being champion hurdler. Done great on the flat and but for the price, she would be my gilt edged nap of the day. Of the year perhaps. Even money is short given that she hasn’t proved herself better than Silver Streak yet. Just my hunch that she is. And he does have a win over this course and distance in October 2019 which suggests he is a better horse than Verdana on paper at least. On good ground. A better time than she has ever achieved. So on strict LIM criteria, Verdana Blue is the lay and Silver Streak the back! He has a lay off to overcome though so I couldn’t have had that even if there wasn’t an alternative! But there is. So the 3-32 is a watch only and if Verdana wins it, she is a shoo in for the 2021 Champion hurdle so long as it comes up good ground at last!  

The 2-22 is a Novices Listed race in which the red hot Nicholls yard saddle Fidelio Vallis who is understandably very short at 5/4 despite not having gone yet on ground without juice in it and thus arguably very much the less proven of two very impressive horses at the top of the market given that For Pleasure is proven on the ground and has been improving at a rate of knots and has the much better time figure over the distance of the two. Up in weights but not class and runs off levels with Fidelio and does not to me look to have hit his ceiling yet so can be fancied against the heavyweight yard hotpot who is penalised by the market simply because of who trains and rides him. For Pleasure the better value.

Plus there is good LIM cover in the race with our to follow horse Sangha River lining up. LTO under penalty was disappointing but likely to do better in this arena with the form of previous wins over Pisgah Pike and Captain Tom Cat boosted. And Aidan Coleman back from injury to ride is also a plus. Slight improvement required to match the top two but that very feasible under Coleman’s patient care.

And then there’s Mrs Hyde as well who is absolutely no slouch and can be expected to be competitive with her 7lb mare’s allowance and De Boinville on board.

The clincher is that all three of Fidelio’s main rivals have the fitness edge whilst he has a 218 day lay off to overcome. Not easy to select a back but a doddle to pick the lay which makes it play of the day. Only proved wrong if he wins and Silver Streak does likewise! Can the Boz keep his winning run going?

Recommendation:

0.25pt LAY on FIDELIO VALLIS (around 2.3)   

LIM SCORES FOR OCTOBER:

1st: NO BET

2nd: +0.196  (+0.196) Lay @ 4.1

3rd:  -0.18     (+0.016) Lay @ 2.2

4th:  +0.147  (+0.163) Lay @ 4.4

5th: NO BET

6th: NO BET

7th:  -0.54     (-0.377) Lay @ 3.2 : Back @ 16.5

8th:  -0.392  (-0.769) Lay @ 2.12

9th: +0.441  (-0.328) Lay @ 1.25 : Back @ 8.0

10th: -0.1     (-0.428) Back @ 2.4

11th: +0.294 (-0.134) Lay @ 1.94 : Back @ 4.0

12th: NO BET

13th: +0.1558 (+0.0218) Back @ 2.59

14th: +0.098   (+0.1198) Lay @ 2.4

15th:  +0.245  (+0.3648) Lay @ 2.7 (averaged and after 22% Rule 4 deduction)

16th:  +0.196  (+0.5608) Lay @ 2.7

17th:  +0.4459 (+1.0067) Lay @ 1.7 : Back @ 3.05

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BOZmail 2020 – Horses to follow on the flat:

Muker 

Ransom

Battleground – Entered for Doncaster (Oct 24)

Royal Air Force – Entered in the 2021 Derby (June 5)

Plainchant(FR) 

Aramhes(FR)

TO FOLLOW/TRADE horse on Friday at Dundalk:

7-45 – MUKER @ 13/2 – 0.25pt BACK – 2nd

Backed @ 7.0 : Hedged 3.25pts @ 1.2 : P/L = +2.94 points

Would you Adam and Eve it? They say lightning doesn’t strike twice! What do they know? 

How did you get on? All those that missed the Royal Ascot trade were hopefully poised! You don’t get long in a five furlong sprint. I had my 1.01 lay on from the start (didn’t get matched) but because he had played up in the stalls and missed his start a bit (would have won without that) I wasn’t expecting the getting involved last furlong until about two out and my punching 3.25pts at 1.2 was randomish ( I have a few worked out possibles in my head from before the race but why I chose that and not the 1.1 I also had lined up and would have got matched I couldn’t say! Once more in the blur I couldn’t remember as I saw he was beat whether I wanted that or him to win! Still don’t know either. Think I still actually wanted him to win although I win lots more again in defeat!) and didn’t get matched until it looked like he had won and I was busy scrabbling again trying to decide whether to be pleased or disappointed.

Think I’m getting too old for it! Let me know if you sat coolly there and collected your winnings without demur. I’ll be hiring you to do it for me in future if you are the sort that keeps a clear head! I am once more a physical wreck. Had to have a double brandy straight after the race. Been on the Guinness ever since!.

And all because I saw him dumping before the off on his debut at Newcastle!

What a star of a horse. One of these days of course he will also actually win a black type race. That was one hell of a run to get that close (and beating the fav) after missing the start. 

For the record, Betfair report trading £794 at 1.1. Seriously well done if you were one of those on at that. Any hedge price below 2.0 was good work. Give yourself a pat on the back.

Who still disagrees with me that this isn’t the way to bet?

BOZmail 2020 – NH Horses to follow (Part Two):

Straw Fan Jack

McFabulous

Flic Ou Voyou 

Soaring Glory

Israel Champ

Bravemansgame

Sangha River -Entered @ Kempton (Oct 18)

Captain Tom Cat 

Saint Sam (FR)

Pisgah Pike – Entered @ Plumpton (Oct 19)

Young Wolf 

Sirobbie      

Soldier of Love 

Lady Bowes(soft) 

Captain Zebo

Defi Sacre

Leoncavallo 

Oscar Rose 

She’s a Rocca(heavy) 

Charm Offensive

Timetoroe(heavy)

Baby Jane

Caius Marcius 

Calum Gilhooly 

The Butcher Said

Leapaway  Entered @ Kempton (Oct 18)

Return Ticket(flat track) 

Redford Road

Not That Fuisse(good/good to soft)

Carroll’s Milan

Prettylittlething – Entered @ Hereford (Oct 21)

Wenceslaus

Boothill

Al Dancer

Onemorefortheroad

Stormy Ireland

Eldorado Allen

NH TO FOLLOW/TRADE horse on Sunday at Kempton:

2-57 Leapaway @ 4/1 – 0.2pt BACK

Take the best price you can get and hedge as appropriate or when preferential odds offered.

Bit to do with Darling Maltaix – back up in class and with penalty to shoulder – but form from LTO franked by Return Ticket so I intend a 50% hedge only pre race to leave a bit of wiggle for in play hedge in expectation of a strong run and involvement in the finish. Absence of Johnson on board is a negative so won’t be taking any chances and the general advice is obtain your profit either way and be happy with it.

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LIM Monthly Scores:

February: + 1.3496 points

March      : + 1.5866 points

UK RACING LOCKDOWN

April         : – 0.1733 points

May          : – 0.8359 points

UK RACING RESTARTED

June         : + 0.0428 points

July          : + 0.8046 points  

August    :  +1.9726 points   (+4.747 points)

September : +1.0071 points (+5.7541 points)

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The BOZmail golden rules:

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(the boz’s job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a lay price or if a specified low lay tissue price goes on a significant drift. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges. The recommendation is always to secure a price (if possible) when actually placing the lay bet. Your discretion based on personal form study and watching the markets develop also encouraged to ensure you maximise returns.The staking advices are a general rather than rigid dictate – mainly for the less experienced and those not able to spend time watching markets develop and practising the optimum betting time skill. Remember also that a lay price available at a significantly lower level than stated on the sheet offers opportunity to increase lay stake without increasing calculated safe lay liability. This can be a key profit optimising tool in the long term if your form study agrees with that published by The Boz.

5/ Always keep in mind the long term ‘importance of  breaking even’ philosophy and practice. This is very much used by The Boz in his staking advices and is recommended in your betting practices – especially during the down spells – in order to maintain a healthy and consistent bank.

6/ Always remember the BOZ does traditionally suffer from Murphys Law. If he expresses his opinion but states that he won’t be betting on it himself and isn’t making it an official tip, remember that historically these can be his best advices! The 2019 Grand National opinion expressed paid a £2,260-93 tricast for a £60 (£1×60) permed stake (five selections). 

7/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been the BOZ’s mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year he packs in.

“I play cautiously and strategically with bank management always in mind.”  Boz 

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