BOZmail – 18th NOVEMBER

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2019 home of the BOZmail

Welcome to the new BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet. 

MONDAY NOVEMBER 18th  2019 

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 LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Stands at 60.481 points after month 11 (+40.481 points profit)

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2019 BOZMAIL TENNIS WINNINGS:

Current Total      = +7.5813 points

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THE BOZ’s 2019 TO FOLLOW & TENNIS TRADES P/L:

Current Total      = +14.3557 points

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BOZMAIL 2019 COMBINED PROFIT TOTAL = +62.418 points

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LESS IS MORE: MONDAY PLAY

1-00 PLUMPTON

16 of the last 18 lays successful and thus the annual percentage gets back up to its 66.66% average of the past five years repairing the damage done mainly in late August and September. And I got the Al Dancer – Getaway Trump equation right enough but suffered a touch of my Murphys Law in not foreseeing that Put The Kettle On would make the running and be tough to pass. Might have been the 3lb or the lack of the hood hampering Al Dancer but I did mention that De Bromhead was coming because he fancied the stamina test and that’s what he won and on balance I tend to agree with the Ruby Walsh assessment that you can scrub the English horses for the Arkle on the strength of that. Ireland already have plenty that rate better than Put The Kettle On. So sadly Al Dancer goes straight back off the list. He ran ok and because of LIM, he was a winner but to be a horse to follow to the festival, I fear he had to win that.

So after the grinding period for LIM laying, back to what it was designed for most which is taking on odds on shots! They are odds on for a reason of course but the value is always in getting them beat and whilst it moves us a bit more into the speculative zone than of late, I think we have a chance here at Plumpton where Champagne Court – who did jump spectacularly at Sandown on debut – has to concede a penalty and thus a lot of weight to a couple with a serious chance. The obvious one is Paul Nicholls’ Mercy Mercy Me who had his warm up behind Happygolucky at Stratford in a novice hurdle over a couple of furlongs too far. He ran out of puff there and he looked the usual Nicholls sure to come on sort going chasing. Built with that in mind and an added plus of having run his best hurdle race in the Heavy at Lingfield behind Down The Highway. Unlike Getaway Trump yesterday, I’d be of the thinking that this one will make a much better chaser than he was hurdler. And he gets 13lb from Champagne Court (who has to carry the penalty in testing ground where he is unproven) whereas Gary Moore’s Gleno also gets the sex allowance and is thus receiving 201b. If you were watching Fontwell yesterday, you saw the value of Jamie Moore on a bottom weight win the Southern National. He threw the kitchen sink at One of Us and used that old AP McCoy trick of simply not letting his mount accept defeat. It worked and it might work again here at the rather astonishing William Hill early tissue odds of 16/1. You have been warned. A Gary Moore second string according to the market with Diable De Sivola and younger brother Josh  the first string but that would be because Gleno has not shone over chase fences so far coming last on debut on ground too quick and unshipping Josh LTO. I think you can forgive those and you’ll see a different show here with pumpalong Jamie in the saddle on the heavy ground she’d prefer. There is a sneaky bit of hurdle form if you look at Sandown in March on soft where Gleno beat Duc de Beauchene who sluiced up at Cheltenham on Sunday. And Gleno has chase experience to boot if you accept that he hasn’t yet just taken a dislike to fences (always a possible). Not a 16/1 shot anyways and I go dutch with him and Mercy Mercy Me to beat the fav. The times suggest it although the fav can be expected to jump the best of the three. May not be enough giving so much weight away in this ground. Gleno won his bumper in heavy ground before he arrived in the Moore yard who are coming back to the boil with a classy winner at Fontwell yesterday. Need I say Moore!?

Recommendations:

0.35pt LAY on CHAMPAGNE COURT (around 1.9 or shorter: No greater than 2.2)

0.1pt BACK on MERCY MERCY ME (11/4 with SKYBET)

0.05pt BACK on GLENO (now best priced 20/1 with BET365)

BLWM LIM strike rates:  LAYS: 196/294 = 66.66% :   BACKS: 53/195 = 27.17%

This month’s scores so far:

1st:    +0.343 (+0.343) Lay @ 2.6

2nd:   +0.245 (+0.588) Lay @ 2.62

3rd:    +0.098 (+0.656) Lay @ 4.2

4th:    NO PLAY DAY

5th:    +0.096 (+0.752) Lay @4.4 : Back @ 3.85

6th:    +0.147 (+0.899) Lay @ 1.75

7th:    +0.196 (+1.095) Lay @ 4.2

8th:    +0.343 (+1.438) Lay @ 2.1

9th:    -0.475 (+0.963) Lay @ 2.9

10th:  -0.3425(+0.6205) Lay @ 1.97 : Back @ 5.0

11th:  +0.144 (+0.7645) Lay @ 2.6 : Back @ 5.0

12th:  +0.196 (+0.9605) Lay @ 3.85

13th:  +0.596 +(1.5565) Lay @ 2.48 : Back @ 5.0

14th:  +0.147 (+1.7035) Lay @ 3.0

15th:   +0.095 (+1.7985) Lay @ 3.2 : Back @ 14.5

16th:   +0.245 (+2.0435) Lay @ 2.6

17th:   +0.143 (+2.1865) Lay @ 2.4 : Back @ 3.0

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STAGGERED ACCA RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 10 points

Stands at 9.75 points. 

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WINTER NH HORSES TO FOLLOW for TRADING or LIM PURPOSES:

La Bague au Roi – Entered for the King George & The Gold Cup!

Unwin VC – Entered at Ffos Las (Nov 22)

Kaizer 

Tea Clipper 

Nube Negra 

Black Op – Entered for Stayers Hurdle (Mar 12)

Verdana Blue – Entered for Champion Hurdle

Maire Banrigh 

Wenceslaus 

Tokaramore 

Flic Ou Voyou 

Thyme Hill 

Nordano 

Indian Opera

Lady Bowes 

Floressa 

Vinndication –Entered for King George & Gold Cup!

Lostintranslation – Entered for Haydock (Nov 23),King George,Ryanair & Gold Cup

Cat Tiger – Entered for Haydock (Nov 23)

Welsh Saint 

Normandy Soldier

Ribble Valley

Kid Commando

Up The Straight

Flaming Charmer

Jatiluwih

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PLANS for the 2020 BOZmail:

The main development for next year is an annual subscription service only which will become available for purchase from December 1st 2019 and will be limited to first 150 purchasers. Membership will be closed when that number is reached or on January 31st 2020. Activity will begin on 1st February 2020.

The 2020 service will not be covering horseracing during January 2020 nor September 2020 as statistics have shown these to be negative months for LIM.

The 2020 BOZmail cycle will thus be a 10 month cycle completing on December 31st 2020.

The reason for annual subscription membership only is so that all members will be at same bank management level throughout. This enables The Boz to practice greater profit reinvestment in his staking levels (thus increasing overall profitability). Something that has not been possible in the 2019 cycle where new members were joining all the time and members were thus at varying bank levels throughout – leading The Boz to be more cautious in his staking levels than was ideal.

Membership of the 2020 BOZmail is recommended for those with some experience of how the service works although new members will be admitted up to the subscription closing date on January 31st 2020 if places are still available. First chance to purchase subscription however will be made to current members only. The service will only be advertised to non members after December 31st 2019 if some places are still available. The capping of numbers for the service is hopefully self explanatory to those who have experience of the service.

There will be some changes to content although the main focus will remain on the daily LIM service and the to follow trading advices in UK horse racing. Tennis coverage of the women’s Grand Slams will be limited to Wimbledon and the French Open only in 2020. There will be ad hoc accumulator advices throughout the cycle as they arise. The staggered acca approach practised in 2019 however will be discontinued. Simply hasn’t been as successful as hoped.

Never afraid to cull its dead wood is the BOZmail!

There are plans to introduce a paddock watching element to the service and to organise various days at the races during the year for those interested in advancing paddock watching skills and using these as an enhancement to their punting profitability generally. Details of these days will be available to BOZmail annual subscriber members only and will come at no extra charge (other than responsibility for paying own course entrance fee). The Boz is also publishing a guide to UK paddock watching in 2020 and will thus be in attendance at all UK racecourses at some point during the year collecting material for the book.

If you have any questions or queries about 2020 BOZmail annual membership at this stage, please feel free to contact The BOZ direct as always via email (garyboswell@hotmail.com). TGH Trading will be in touch in the coming weeks with personal invites to all current members to purchase first chance 2020 membership detailing cost etc. Opening date for purchasing 2020 membership will be December 1st 2019. First come,first served. 

With thanks to all who have supported the service in 2019 and here’s to a highly profitable and enjoyable 2020!

Cheers

THE BOZ

 Good Luck with your bets.

BOZ

The BOZmail golden rules:

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(the boz’s job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a lay price or if a specified low lay tissue price goes on a significant drift. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges. As from March 2019 onwards, advised not to take BETFAIR SP prices on lays following some adverse returns therein over the January/February period. The recommendation is always to secure a price (if possible) within the published parameters when actually placing the lay bet. Your discretion based on personal form study also encouraged to ensure you maximise returns.The staking advices are a general rather than rigid dictate – mainly for the less experienced and those not able to spend time watching markets develop and practising the optimum betting time skill.

5/ Always keep in mind the long term ‘importance of  breaking even’ philosophy and practice. This is very much used by The Boz in his staking advices and is recommended in your betting practices – especially during the down spells – in order to maintain a healthy and consistent bank.

6/ Always remember the BOZ does traditionally suffer from Murphys Law. If he expresses his opinion but states that he won’t be betting on it himself and isn’t making it an official tip, remember that historically these can be his best advices! The 2019 Grand National opinion expressed paid a £2,260-93 tricast for a £60 (£1×60) permed stake (five selections). 

7/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been the BOZ’s mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year he packs in.

“I play cautiously and strategically with bank management also always in mind. The staggered acca is the attempt to win large from small stake. The LIM is the cashbuilder to gradually accumulate profit over a 12 month period.”  Boz 

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