BOZmail 18th MARCH (part two corrected)

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2020 home of the BOZmail

Welcome to the BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet. 

WEDNESDAY MARCH 18th  2020 

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 LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Currently standing at 22.8778 points (temporarily suspended)

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TENNIS & TO FOLLOW HORSE BACK/TRADE STARTING BANK = 8 points

Currently standing at 10.4606 points

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OCCASIONAL ACCA STARTING BANK = 5 points

Currently standing at 4.90 points

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BOZmail 2020 cycle current overall profit = +5.2384 points

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LESS IS MORE: (temporarily suspended)

LIM 2020 Strike Rates: Lays: 23/36 = 63.88%  Backs: 9/26 = 34.61%

US RACING

17-15 TAMPA BAY DOWNS

I recommend working from a 10% bank on US racing. Thus all stakes will be one tenth of that recommended on the UK version. We stick to LIM and one bet/race a day

but my back knowledge is limited here and so the risk factor is seriously increased. I play £10 per point rather than £100. Still make profit though in the long term sticking to the principles of playing the market and exploiting value in combination with careful selection of the race each day.

The only thing you have to watch for is the volatile market. I put tips up based on the UK pricing of the race but that does not always equate with the US tote system and so market watch is even more important here. Do not play silly prices and if odds offered are seriously askew from those recommended here, either abort or play with increased circumspection. Form race reads are easier in some respects because of uniform tracks and availability of sectional timing but that lack of back knowledge is

a leveller sometimes and I cannot boast scores in US racing equivalent to that achieved in UK racing. I do however still have my moments and because I play value, some of my best single wins occur here. Just my % scores that are not as good. Yet!

Practice of course does always improve things!

This maiden claimer has a potential very short fav in Highwaytwentyseven who has been touted in stronger events but hasn’t been able to sustain down the stretch and has now been off track for over six months. Reappears for new barn but is vulnerable to a decent newcomer and that is represented by Victorious Warrior who runs for an owner who does well with this trainer. David Wallace has a good score at the track.

Priced up at 8/1 in UK markets (although we may not get that on the exchanges – usual caveat. Get the best price you can.) is reported to have sparkled in workouts and has an experienced jockey up to capitalise if the desire for the game is strong.

Value play.

Recommended:

0.3pt LAY on HIGHWAYTWENTYSEVEN (aim for around 2.1 with upper limit of 3.0)

0.2pt BACK on VICTORIOUS WARRIOR

That’s a £3-00 lay and a £2 back from the BOZ’s bank of £100 (10 points) assigned to this special crisis corner which I aim to deliver daily until the end of April if allowed.

Might not make us rich but keeps us active and practising market watch and like I say,I usually manage some rewarding value wins along the way.  

Had some suggestions for forum points for discussion overnight so many thanks to those who posted in. Will take a few days to get my head around but look out for the first of those at the weekend.

 Good Luck with your bets.

BOZ

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LIM Monthly Scores:

February: + 1.3496 points

March (truncated): + 1.5282 points

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The BOZmail golden rules:

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(the boz’s job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a lay price or if a specified low lay tissue price goes on a significant drift. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges. The recommendation is always to secure a price (if possible) when actually placing the lay bet. Your discretion based on personal form study and watching the markets develop also encouraged to ensure you maximise returns.The staking advices are a general rather than rigid dictate – mainly for the less experienced and those not able to spend time watching markets develop and practising the optimum betting time skill. Remember also that a lay price available at a significantly lower level than stated on the sheet offers opportunity to increase lay stake without increasing calculated safe lay liability. This can be a key profit optimising tool in the long term if your form study agrees with that published by The Boz.

5/ Always keep in mind the long term ‘importance of  breaking even’ philosophy and practice. This is very much used by The Boz in his staking advices and is recommended in your betting practices – especially during the down spells – in order to maintain a healthy and consistent bank.

6/ Always remember the BOZ does traditionally suffer from Murphys Law. If he expresses his opinion but states that he won’t be betting on it himself and isn’t making it an official tip, remember that historically these can be his best advices! The 2019 Grand National opinion expressed paid a £2,260-93 tricast for a £60 (£1×60) permed stake (five selections). 

7/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been the BOZ’s mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year he packs in.

“I play cautiously and strategically with bank management always in mind.”  Boz 

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