BOZmail – 18th MARCH (part one)

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2020 home of the BOZmail

Welcome to the BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet. 

WEDNESDAY MARCH 18th  2020 

QUOTE OF THE DAY:

Comes from legendary Queen guitarist Brian May who was bemoaning the discrimination meted out to over 70 year olds who have been asked not to leave their homes for twelve weeks:

“ When I asked what on earth was I going to do with myself,a friend informed me that during his quarantine from the Plague, a certain William Shakespeare spent the time writing King Lear……”

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 LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Currently standing at 22.8778 points

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TENNIS & TO FOLLOW HORSE BACK/TRADE STARTING BANK = 8 points

Currently standing at 10.4606 points

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OCCASIONAL ACCA STARTING BANK = 5 points

Currently standing at 4.90 points

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BOZmail 2020 cycle current overall profit = +5.2384 points

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LESS IS MORE: 

 Well, I rather enjoyed our one day behind closed doors! Not surprised that the BHA has already changed its mind and decided on a total ban on all UK horse racing until end of April at the earliest. In line with what is going on elsewhere in the world whatever else you might say about it. I might say “Right in the middle of The Boz’s first concerted effort at a winning streak for the year!” But I won’t say that. I do voluntary work where I live and have seen the crisis looming and seen the depths of the anxiety and what we are heading towards and it is right that we need to focus on self preservation for a while. I saw a man die yesterday. It wasn’t pretty. It never is.

The potential for that to escalate into millions around the world in the next few months is no joke. Time to get our priorities right.

That said, The Boz is an old style Vaudevillian and even through times of hardship and want, the show must go on. The BOZmail is contracted to publish every day and publish every day it will whilst the publishing network remains intact and available and I’m still breathing and compos mentis enough to write my copy.

Changes are imminent of course. Temporary changes forced upon us but – as in the equine flu crisis last year – I shall still scour what opportunity there is for a daily tip.

I have back up areas of dog racing and US horses (still taking place behind closed doors at time of writing) that I follow as well as tennis and australian horse racing that I also play in. I expect to be flagging up some interesting bets in these areas in the days ahead. Not every day perhaps but on days of no betting activity, I intend to run a BOZmail forum where members can email in questions or observations and I’ll endeavour to answer and publish question and answer herein wherever it is likely to be of interest to the membership as a whole. Several of you have partaken in that activity in the cycle so far -off the record. That becomes centre stage for a bit if there is nothing else doing. One of you has also mentioned a correspondence course in Boz’s best betting practice and whilst I don’t intend any large scale publishing on that topic, I’m always up for talking about issues of interest in the general sector of betting opinion and education. Always learning myself and enjoy these exchanges with Bozmailers wanting to share their experiences and concerns.

So the next few days will be a case of see how it goes. I’ll assess betting opportunities on a daily basis and publish mornings from now and until further notice on the publication date with anything I find of interest and worth our supporting.

The official LIM service will be suspended as from March 17th until such time as UK horse racing restarts and the recommended and advised banks and profits will be ringfenced. That is my main specialism and that is primarily what you have signed up to and paid for and that will be honoured on the basis that the 2020 publishing cycle will now extend on past December 31st for the exact number of days we lose due to this coronavirus interruption to UK horse racing.   

I hope that seems fair and right to everyone and feel free to comment especially with any issues I haven’t yet thought of. An unprecedented time for all of us no doubt although it does remind me of a time in the late 1970s when I was working in the bank and a pandemic was briefly touted and we did a lot of what we are doing now without quite the same need as the threat quickly fizzled out that time. I remember having to incinerate shed loads of pound notes because they were deemed at risk of carrying and transmitting the virus. My manager of the time nearly fainted at the prospect!

So the Boz’s serious betting programme temporarily suspended and a few lesser schemes and bets will arise on tomorrow’s sheet. Not dissimilar to the Penny Arcade approach I ran through early January as those who witnessed that will recall. Depending on how things go next few weeks, I may consider publishing throughout September now to make up for what we miss if that seems wise. Likewise for those following the shortlist system’s calendar, I shall extend that into September and possibly beyond to ensure you receive exact number of days publications that you paid for.

These things happen and The Boz can always be relied upon to make best of them.

You’ll see from the above that in just over six weeks since this cycle started we are up on banks between 2 and 7 points depending how good your price optimising has been. At £100 per point that should mean £200 in the pot at the very least which has covered your sub already (and if you are not quite at that level, I’m guessing there is no-one out there now showing a minus although I know a few of the newcomers did experience teething troubles) and hopefully that encourages all enough to take this blow to the plans on the chin. To stay patient and safe. And to come back with gusto and all guns blazing once UK horse racing starts up again.

Meantime a few dog races or tennis matches or american nags to have an interest in and whilst I don’t pretend to be as clued up at them as I am with UK horse racing, the betting and market principles are the same and the Boz can still hold his own in that quarter.

Until tomorrow. I plan to publish around 10am. Feel free to email thoughts and reactions in the meantime.

Cheers

BOZ  

LIM 2020 Strike Rates: Lays: 23/36 = 63.88%  Backs: 9/26 = 34.61%

THE BOZ’s daily LIM record for MARCH:

1st:    +0.196 (+0.196) Lay @ 2.2

2nd:   -0.04   (+0.156) Lay @ 1.4

3rd:    +0.047 (+0.203) Lay @ 2.4 : Back @ 7.4

4th:    +0.146 (+0.349) Lay @ 2.1 : Back @ 5.2

5th:    -0.435 (-0.086)  Lay @ 2.8 : Back @ 34.0

6th:    +0.735 (+0.649) Lay @ 3.0 : Back @ 12.0

7th:     -0.34 (+0.309) Lays @ 4.9 & 1.66 : Backs @ 9.0 & 24.0

8th:     +0.22 (+0.529) Lay not matched : Back @ 3.2

9th:     -0.208 (+0.321) Lay @ 1.79 : Back @ 4.1

10th:   -0.1 (+0.221) Back @ 12.0

11th:   +0.735 (+0.956) Lay @ 1.28 : Backs @ 10.0 & 13.0

12th:    RACING ABANDONED

13th:   -0.175 (+0.781) Lay @ 1.7

14th:   +0.147 (+0.928) Lay @ 2.1 : Back @ 12.0

15th:   +0.147 (+1.075) Lay @ 5.0

16th:   +0.196 (+1.271) Lay @ 3.1

17th:   +0.2572 (+1.5282) Lay @ 2.82 : Back @ 2.5

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WINTER NH HORSES TO FOLLOW for TRADING or LIM PURPOSES:

Unwin VC* 

Tea Clipper* 

Black Op 

Verdana Blue 

Maire Banrigh*  

Thyme Hill* 

Nordano* 

Indian Opera

Lady Bowes 

Lostintranslation* 

Normandy Soldier* 

Magic of Light* – Entered for Grand National (Apr 4)

Defi Sacre* 

Lieutenant Rocco*

Soaring Glory 

Ambion Hill 

Quick Wave 

It’safreebee 

Captain Zebo

Ellens Way

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NH HORSE to FOLLOW/TRADE on TUESDAY:

5-10 TAUNTON – AMBION HILL – 0.1pt BACK

(Backed at 6.0 : hedged in running at 3.8) = P/L = 0

Faded again after travelling strongly and well. Might need to be saved for chasing or might just be a ponderous sort. Goes off the list for that despite never actually losing me any money. Mainly because the list itself will be disbanded now with the rest of the jumps season suspended. I will start up a Summer jumping To Follow list as and when it is appropriate.

 Good Luck with your bets.

BOZ

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LIM Monthly Scores:

February: + 1.3496 points

March (truncated): + 1.5282 points

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The BOZmail golden rules:

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(the boz’s job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a lay price or if a specified low lay tissue price goes on a significant drift. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges. The recommendation is always to secure a price (if possible) when actually placing the lay bet. Your discretion based on personal form study and watching the markets develop also encouraged to ensure you maximise returns.The staking advices are a general rather than rigid dictate – mainly for the less experienced and those not able to spend time watching markets develop and practising the optimum betting time skill. Remember also that a lay price available at a significantly lower level than stated on the sheet offers opportunity to increase lay stake without increasing calculated safe lay liability. This can be a key profit optimising tool in the long term if your form study agrees with that published by The Boz.

5/ Always keep in mind the long term ‘importance of  breaking even’ philosophy and practice. This is very much used by The Boz in his staking advices and is recommended in your betting practices – especially during the down spells – in order to maintain a healthy and consistent bank.

6/ Always remember the BOZ does traditionally suffer from Murphys Law. If he expresses his opinion but states that he won’t be betting on it himself and isn’t making it an official tip, remember that historically these can be his best advices! The 2019 Grand National opinion expressed paid a £2,260-93 tricast for a £60 (£1×60) permed stake (five selections). 

7/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been the BOZ’s mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year he packs in.

“I play cautiously and strategically with bank management always in mind.”  Boz 

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