BOZmail – 18th JUNE

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Welcome to the new BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet.

TUESDAY JUNE 18th  2019

LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Stood at 26.0 points after month 1

Stood at 25.83 points after month 2

Stood at 27.28 points after month 3

Stood at 36.0395 points after month 4

Stood at 40.8925 points after month 5

Stands at 43.0503 points after month 6

LESS IS MORE: TUESDAY PLAY

4-05 STRATFORD

With Royal Ascot starting today, BOZmail rule number one comes sharply into focus and I think I’ve found a good race for that today. Keep your eye on the market and smell out the value as I was doing at the tennis yesterday! I will be continuing main focus on the tennis for a few weeks now until Wimbledon is done as encouraged by French Open scores, I piled into my favoured grass court season yesterday on the Rodina trade (more below) and I can do seriously well on the tennis (grass & clay) when I’ve got gen to work with. Been there and smelled the sweat yesterday and now have a pocket full of cash. The Boz is at war! And I won’t be doing my conkers at Royal Ascot (more on that below) as is very much my way!!

Will still be keeping LIM on the horses going small however. Ticking over and benefiting from the deflecting spotlight that shines on Royal Ascot this week. Weird weather continues a concern but glad to be back summer jumping today and I thought we were unlucky in yesterday’s play with both heavy ground horses giving us a good value run and the lay was accurate for a change. Thwarted by the cover horse but another smidgeon of profit which will do for now. See if we can’t get the result aswell today.

I think the market may well steam into Newland’s fav – Ronava – but I have a couple of negatives for it and consider it very short and no value at the 2.26 it has already traded this morning. Newland stable is in form and always powerful but this is a floater for him. A horse he hasn’t quite worked out yet. New to the yard. He puts up claimer Charlie Hammond when traditionally he uses his big jocks when confident (STD or Bowen) suggesting that he thinks Ronava is heftily weighted and I agree.

Time of that first run for the yard was ok but on a collateral par with that of the main danger – Well Smitten – who we have tried to get in already this season but we try again today because he is well weighted and has a parallel ratings and figures chance. Can be a bit of a monkey (tried to shy away back to the stables when we backed him at Plumpton last time) but knows how to win and Conor Brace knows him now and is a claimer I like. Ready to win now and although the market was with him a bit last night, I see a drift already this morning as the cash for Newland traditionally piles high. I think that may continue. Staggered staking a play today to get your value. Tread lightly and don’t alarm the market which will have its eyes on the fav and Royal Ascot. Well Smitten could seriously drift out if we don’t rock the boat our end!!

The main reason I’m quite sweet on him – apart from a handy 8lb weight pull when you take jockeys claims into account – is the ground although to be fair that is a law to itself at the moment. Flagged up this morning as soft and that will suit Well Smitten but is a big question mark for Ronava. Brings them very close on considerations and tips towards the Murphy horse. Trouble is, I was in the area yesterday and no rain all day. Drying weather. Sun was hot when it poked out for an hour or two during the day.

Obviously plenty of lush ground around from last week’s deluges but I doubt true soft ground now. Could be wrong of course. That uncertainty keeps me small on the horses at the moment. If it is definitely still soft, and we might get that info from earlier races, I like the chance of Well Smitten and I might go strong. I could do with being there and smelling the sweat again. I came back to Cumbria to write this instead!

So small on the horses and bullish at the tennis. We don’t have much in the way of LIM cover as the other two horses in the race are pointers or hunters who might step up but more likely won’t. Johnson’s ride is an interesting dark horse who the market likes (likely because he’s up). I can find little encouragement in the form but he does indeed know his stuff around the pointing trainers so no surprise to see Streets of Milan run well. Back clever today. Back canny. Keep your head down and imitate the action of the trader!! Place your stake in small increments as the prices yoyo!

Recommendation:

0.25pt LAY on RONAVA (around 2.4 : take lower and no greater than 2.6)

0.15pt BACK on WELL SMITTEN (around 4.7 but as big as you get offered.)

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This month plays so far:

8th:      -0.1 (-0.1) Back @ 4.8

9th:   +1.691(+1.591) Lay @ 2.82 : Back @ 6.0

10th: +0.095(+1.686) Lay @ 3.0 : Back @ 3.1

11th:  NON-RUNNER NO PLAY

12th:  +0.34 (+2.026) Half Lay @ 4.4 : Back @ 26.0

             — Whole race played as trade–

13th:   +0.3 (+2.326) Back @ 2.2

14th:   -0.286 (+2.04) Lay @2.24 : Back @11.0

15th:   +0.049(+2.089) Lays @ 3.4 & 4.5 : Back @11.0

16th:    -0.09 (+1.999) Lay @ 1.09

17th:   +0.045(+2.044) Lay @ 2.9 : Backs @ 7.5 & 8.0

BLWM LIM strike rates:  LAYS: 111/166 = 66.86% :   BACKS: 29/108 = 26.85%

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2019 BOZMAIL TENNIS POT TO PLAY WITH AT WIMBLEDON:

Australian Open = +0.283

French Open      = +2.74

Nottingham P/L = Break even

Edgbaston P/L   = +4.3545

Current Total      = +7.3775 points

EDGBASTON REPORT:

TWO FIRST ROUND PLAYS AGAINST THE BOOK:

From the same eighth of the draw:

Rodina to beat Mladenovic @ best priced 49/11 – WON

I have written much over the years about the advantages of being at the event where you plunge. Football and tennis especially. You see stuff that doesn’t get seen by the great unwashed, sitting in their garrets. Smell the psyches of the protagonists. Perfectly placed to read and predict what may happen next. I was sat not twenty yards from Mladenovic on the tight number one court at Edgbaston – which used to be a grassy knoll when I first started going but is a smart seated stand now but just as intimate – when she slipped quite badly on the grass and looked to have twisted her ankle. Stayed down for a minute or two and a physio was called. I could see the beads of sweat and pain on her face. Could sense the vibe of a professional sports player and what was going through the noddle.

Betting wise I’d been big on Rodina as you know. I missed recommended stake out unintentionally on the sheet yesterday but whatever you started with in your play on this, stick with as your starter now for the duration of the match trades in the tournament. That consistency is important as you seek to build on what was hopefully a successful start for you. Even rookie practising traders will have turned a nice plus on this! I scored a bundle. I was already greened out as Rodina had bossed the first set as the seriously natural and experienced grass courter that she is. Superb low ground strokes that tall Mladenovic was struggling with. The 1/5 mega false fav played ok that first set. Serve creaked a bit but the rallies were long and intense. Rodina just the classier on the grass. I had a clear point start on the Russian and took 0.3pt back on Mladenovic at her inflated price end of first set to green out. Mladenovic was only just over break even. I was very keen to keep the slant on my outsider. When the slip occurred, Mladenovic had been making a spirited effort at recovery and was 3-2 second set. The market did what the market often does. It panicked and posted her at silly prices already a set down and now with a potential injury to carry. Didn’t look like she would retire (which scuppers fixed odds plays of course with many bookmakers – hence why you always trade on the exchanges when you can) as the physio massaged away ten feet under my nose. No screams of agony from Mladenovic but plenty from the market!! I took advantage and backed Mladenovic again at silly price for a 0.1 point and was thus beautifully placed to back Rodina again when as I suspected, Mladenovic got back up and carried on scrapping womanfully and won the second set. I was now roughly half my fixed odds target plus on Rodina up on both players and perfectly placed to get the value of backing Rodina again (almost at her start price!!) as they began the third set. I kept a 20% plus on Mladenovic just in case and it proved prudent as the third set was very tight. Mladenovic did not roll over and when her serve was clicking she looked a possible winner as she is nigh on unreturnable at her best with the serve on grass. Achieved that 40% of the time here and also fought back from a 0-40 on Rodina’s serve in the ninth game of the set as the Russian tried to serve out for the match. It was tense stuff!! I was sitting on a bundle if Rodina won and a nice earner if she didn’t and when she lost that ninth game, she looked deflated and had been a Puffing Billy throughout third set. Her grass class was always there however and she is also a fighter. Mladenovic isn’t always but she scrapped here and was let down ultimately by her serve reverting to its atypical weak flop into the net as she tired. Having fought back to 4-5, she then served a poor game to hand the match to Rodina with several missed first serves and a double fault but to her credit she was distracted by half the crowd in that intimate arena that is court one at Edgbaston getting up to leave before the end as it was announced that the doubles match featuring Venus Williams that they’d all come to bag their seats for was now moved to centre court!! Just like the train announcer at Piccadilly station! Farcical!

The Boz however was cat with the cream. I traded like a titan and I also have Rodina at big odds in the outrights. Doubt she has the steam to keep winning all week these days but a no lose for us second round because of the way I set it up after my draw study so another fabulous chance to trade. I trust those of you new to this and busy practising are enjoying yourselves!

Although I made considerably more on this play than the fixed odds return, I will play fair and settle on the sheet at fixed odds price to 1pt and keep that as my settling mode on all other recommended match plays this week. The outrights settled to 0.1pt as advised. And today’s bet is already written up as below!! More coming on wednesday though. I had an excellent day’s info gathering and I also got Iga Swiatek’s autograph! She is a charming young player and played her final qualifier with the requisite grit. Still very raw and inconsistent but the class oozes out. My confident prediction that she will win her slam in the fullness of time. And I have an autograph from when she was a gawky 17 year old which will be worth a mint in the future!! Another successful play!     

Goerges to beat Yastremska @ best priced 15/13

The 19 year old Ukranian is the current form and has won in Hua Hin and Strasbourg already this year as she continues to mature and is ranked 35 in the world now. Not got much grass pedigree however and takes on the world ranked 19 who was top ten last year and also comes to her form on grass and played very well here last year.

Surprised to see her odds against in this and that’s value. Might trade in this but if the German does make a solid start, I might sit tight and expect her to prevail.

My five for the outrights pre-tournament are as follows:

Sabalenka – 11/1 or better – ELIMINATED

The Belarussian is confidently crossed off my future slam winner list now. Saw her close to aswell and not impressed by the mindset. Hsieh outhought her. Force was not enough. Sabalenka really does hit a thunderball but tennis is about much more.

Off the list until she shows evidence of maturity. Have an inkling now that there may be not enough marbles to work out how to win a slam. Good coach might help. Might not. Currently under Tursonov. Wasn’t impressed by him either. As a player similar to how he performed as a coach yesterday. You get to see and hear the on court coaching that is not allowed at slams. Very,very instructive also. Take my advice. Get to a WTA event pronto if you wanna take betting in women’s tennis seriously. Eastbourne next week and rest of Edgbaston this week. I love the first days of tournaments. You learn so much that can be squirrelled away for the future. Watching on Eurosport also now rest of week. My work is done and cash made. Now to enjoy and plan for the future!  

Goerges – 22/1 or better

Yastremska – 25/1 or better

Qiang Wang – 50/1 or better

Rodina – 60/1 or better (Got 89/1)

Take all at 0.1pt to win at this stage pre-tournament. Guaranteed one in the second round with Yastremska and Goerges playing each other but both are value to go all the way and I do consider the winner is key to the tournament. Winner plays the winner of Rodina v Mladenovic so can only have one QF player from those three but am optimistic one will prevail with Mladenovic least fancied in that foursome.

Sabalenka is bottom half of the draw along with Qiang Wang and has a tough first round v Hsieh but get through that and playing the form she showed here last year and I would fancy her for SF at least. 11/1 is short so try to beat that price if you can.

Qiang Wang is in a quarter with Venus and Barty so is accordingly huge in the outrights playing Lauren Davis first round. She is a back to lay really as are all in the way of my outright portfolio play.

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SUMMER NH HORSES TO FOLLOW for TRADING or LIM PURPOSES:

Get out the Gate

Commodore Barry

Nietzsche

Caius Marcius

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HORSES TO FOLLOW ON THE FLAT:

Moonlight Spirit – Entered for the Queens Vase at Ascot (June 19)

Eightsome Reel – Entered for Ascot (Jun 20)

Dee Ex Bee – Entered for Ascot Gold Cup (June 20)

Sir Dragonet- Entered for Irish Derby (June 29) & King Edward (June 21)

Raise You

Charl Brune

Barney Roy

Ocean Paradise

Maydanny

Roseman – Entered for Ascot (June 20)

Pour Me A Drink

Gold Stick

Light Up Our Stars – Entered for Goodwood (June 21)

DAY ONE TRADE AT ROYAL ASCOT:

2-30 BARNEY ROY @ 6/1 – 0.1pt BACK to LAY

Don’t do your conkers at Royal Ascot!! Serious advice. Some of the most competitive and hardest to predict racing in the world. Great sport and fabulous to watch. I try to do just that. Rarely bet. Look elsewhere is my way. Do have an unusually high stable of to follows entered this year however. Particularly keen on Dee Ex Bee. Start with Barney Roy in the Queen Anne. He proved a shit sire so is back racing with a bang & the turn of foot shown in France LTO was eyecatching. Very small starter play for me with money being kept for the tennis but my play here will be to back small on the off and maybe double stake in running if he trades large with the hope of a strong run in the final furlong. If he then goes very short in running,lay some off late as each way tip only really (but not each way starting price) such is the competitiveness of these races. Trade the only way to play I think and only if you must. Other stuff on this sheet represents much better betting fare!! For the most part, watch and enjoy!

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STAGGERED ACCA RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 10 points

Stands at 10 points.

Staggered acca number 11: (LEG 1)

Will shout when I’m ready to start another go at the acca

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Good Luck with your bets.

BOZ

The BOZmail golden rules:

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(the boz’s job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a lay price or if a specified low lay tissue price goes on a significant drift. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges. As from March 2019 onwards, advised not to take BETFAIR SP prices on lays following some adverse returns therein over the January/February period. The recommendation is always to secure a price (if possible) within the published parameters when actually placing the lay bet. Your discretion based on personal form study also encouraged to ensure you maximise returns.The staking advices are a general rather than rigid dictate – mainly for the less experienced and those not able to spend time watching markets develop and practising the optimum betting time skill.

5/ Always keep in mind the long term ‘importance of  breaking even’ philosophy and practice. This is very much used by The Boz in his staking advices and is recommended in your betting practices – especially during the down spells – in order to maintain a healthy and consistent bank.

6/ Always remember the BOZ does traditionally suffer from Murphys Law. If he expresses his opinion but states that he won’t be betting on it himself and isn’t making it an official tip, remember that historically these can be his best advices! The 2019 Grand National opinion expressed paid a £2,260-93 tricast for a £60 (£1×60) permed stake (five selections).

7/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been the BOZ’s mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year he packs in.

“I play cautiously and strategically with bank management also always in mind. The staggered acca is the attempt to win large from small stake. The LIM is the cashbuilder to gradually accumulate profit over a 12 month period.”  Boz

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