BOZmail – 18th JUNE

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THE BOZmail@Royal Ascot: Day Three

THURSDAY JUNE 18th  2020 

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 LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Currently stands at : 18.7525 points (-1.2475 points)

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TENNIS & TO FOLLOW HORSE BACK/TRADE STARTING BANK = 8 points

Currently stands at : 12.778 points (+4.778 points)

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OCCASIONAL ACCA STARTING BANK = 5 points

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SPECIAL ROYAL ASCOT FESTIVAL BANK = 5 points

Currently stands at : 4.71 points

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Post Lockdown Litmus Test Bozbets = +0.085 points

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BOZmail 2020 cycle PART ONE(1/2 – 31/5) overall profit = +4.2876 points

                                      PART TWO(1/6 – 31/1 )  overall profit = +3.3255 points

PART ONE LIM 2020 Strike Rates: Lays: 25/41 = 60.97%  Backs: 9/29 = 31.03%

PART TWO LIM 2020 Strike rates: Lays 3/8 = 37.5%  Backs : 0/5 = 0%

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LESS IS MORE: 

NO BET ON DAY THREE OF ROYAL ASCOT

THEBOZmail at Royal Ascot (5 point bank): Day Three

After successful trader on day two, back to the tougher game of being a Royal Ascot tipster on day three. Simply no to follow runners again now until Saturday. Of course, now you’ve learned the business, nothing to stop you playing trade on everything! Been my way for the most part for two years now. I even trade my multiples when they are going well! 

The Nap: 4-40 AFRICAN DREAM @ 2/1 – 0.1pt

The Lay of the Day: 3-35 STRADIVARIUS @ 8/13 – 0.1pt

The Value outsiders Acca:  2-25 MYSTERY POWER @ 14/1

                                                  3-35 NAYEF ROAD @ 14/1

                                                  4-10 SUN POWER @ 25/1

                                                    4-40 DUBAI LOVE @ 16/1

0.005pt EACH WAY LUCKY 15 = TOTAL STAKE of 0.15 points

Last race of the day looks a Gosden carve up again with Frankie defecting to the Godolphin topweight who I have as an each way danger to the Gosden lightweight African Dream for whom Keiran O’Neill takes the ride and looks laid out for this. I go small stakes nap on that with Frankie in my Lucky 15 alongside Johnston’s Nayef Road who the shortlist suggests could upset the Stradivarius tune. The maestro might just be getting long in the tooth and has been beaten last twice although it’s hardly a strong lay play in light of the domination the Gosden horse has at the distance. Case of playing the price in view of the possible ending of the career. My other two for the each way lucky 15 are the Hannon King Power pair of Mystery Power and Sun Power who look value each way shouts in the usual very competitive races. Small stakes day all round after the repair work done to the sheet by Muker!                                                  

LIM Scores in June:

5th:  -0.355 (-0.355) Lay @ 2.02 : Back @ 9.4

6th-8th: NO BETS

9th:  +0.048 (-0.307) Lay @ 2.8 : Back @ 14.0

10th: +0.0735 (-0.2335) Lay @ 6.0

11th:  -0.23     (-0.4635) Lay @ 2.5 : Back @ 6.2

12th: +0.098  (-0.3835) Lay @ 1.66

13th: -0.24     (-0.6235) Lays @ 3.2 & 4.4 : Backs @ 5.0 & 7.0

14th: -0.216  (-0.8395) Lay @ 2.44

15th: -0.408  (-1.2475) Lay @ 2.54 : Backs @ 4.4 & 9.4

16th: NO BET

17th: NO BET

18th: NO BET

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BOZmail 2020 – Horses to follow on the flat:

Frankly Darling – Entered for The Oaks (July 4)

Muker – Entered for York (Aug 20)

Significantly – Entered for York (Aug 20) & Doncaster (Sep 10)

Martineo 

Malotru

English King – Entered for The Derby (July 4)

Ransom

Run Wild – Entered for The Coronation Stakes (June 20) & The Oaks (July 4)

Virgin Snow

TRADE PLAYS OF THE DAY FOR WEDNESDAY:

4-10 ASCOT – Muker @ 40/1 – 0.05pt BACK

Backed @ 76.0 : Hedged before the off @ 48.0  (stood to win 1.4 if he won): Backed again in the parade ring @110.0 (now standing to win 6.85) and hedged twice in running : once for 0.1pt @ 5.0 (now standing to win 6.45) and half a furlong out with Tactical starting to loom 4pt @ 1.5 (now standing to win 4.45 or 4.05)  P/L = +3.96 points

Well I wasn’t joking about being delighted to be back in the traders ring after that! As good a horse race trade as I’ve done in years and all on the back of a fiver! I had thought my night before hedge was the end of activity but when I saw him being coltish in the paddock, I couldn’t resist going in again for some in play knowing that he was quick out of the blocks last time and had a good chance of leading here. And boy did he run a cracker. Didn’t actually see him dump this time (anybody else see it?) but he certainly ran like he had! When I took my 0.1pt @ 5.0, I actually thought he was going to win and in that fraction of a second also saw Tactical looming hence the 4pt at 1.5 which I had laid up before the off and activated pronto. He traded lower at 1.38 but I had no time for that also. You do have to be quick when it’s like that! It’s an hour later now and I’m still sweating!

A few of you mailed to ask whether I thought him worth an each way bet and I said if that was your bag, we could be hopeful. Well done to you too. Got chinned for second on the line but third will do! Hope some of you managed a good return on the trade. I know it is not everyone’s cup of tea but after all the shit of the past 3 months, it is most certainly mine! I’ve been over to trading since summer 2018. Two years now. The stats are clear that it is definitely the way to play the to follow list. It looks like horses that make the list because of winning after a dump are worthy of double staking! And he stays on the to follow list for that heroic performance.

I’m off to watch my actual preferred play of the day now. Am preparing myself for an anti-climax!!

6-20 CHELMSFORD – Martineo @ 3/1 – 0.2pt BACK

Backed @ 5.0 : Hedged in running @ 0.3pt @ 1.86 : P/L = +0.098 points 

And bit of an anti-climax he was but not just me expecting him to pick up at the end because he traded at 1.68. I got 1.86 but by that point was fairly sure he wasn’t going to win. Actually didn’t stay on at all but that’s even more of an argument for the trading approach. That you can post a profit on a loser. Two losers in fact on the day and over 4 points profit from 0.25pt stakes. What more can I say? Be converted basically!

And just in case you worry about the speed needed to get the odds thing. I actually posted my 0.3pt at 2.8 thinking I’d be ok spending 0.54 of my projected 0.8 profit but obviously somebody still thought he’d run on because I got matched at 1.86. And that’s the game. Don’t always get that part of things right of course and if he had stayed on, my lost 0.54 would have been a blow. Judgement is part of it. A life of watching horses run means I am ok at predicting in running outcomes. Not infallible by any means but when you’ve done your form study and seen the horse run before, you do get to know what to expect. And that knowing the horse before the race is key and why I mainly advise that you get into trading on your to follow horses. Not just an on paper exercise but an actual horse in the flesh that you have knowledge of. Preferably one who runs best after he has had a dump!  

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The BOZmail golden rules:

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(the boz’s job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a lay price or if a specified low lay tissue price goes on a significant drift. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges. The recommendation is always to secure a price (if possible) when actually placing the lay bet. Your discretion based on personal form study and watching the markets develop also encouraged to ensure you maximise returns.The staking advices are a general rather than rigid dictate – mainly for the less experienced and those not able to spend time watching markets develop and practising the optimum betting time skill. Remember also that a lay price available at a significantly lower level than stated on the sheet offers opportunity to increase lay stake without increasing calculated safe lay liability. This can be a key profit optimising tool in the long term if your form study agrees with that published by The Boz.

5/ Always keep in mind the long term ‘importance of  breaking even’ philosophy and practice. This is very much used by The Boz in his staking advices and is recommended in your betting practices – especially during the down spells – in order to maintain a healthy and consistent bank.

6/ Always remember the BOZ does traditionally suffer from Murphys Law. If he expresses his opinion but states that he won’t be betting on it himself and isn’t making it an official tip, remember that historically these can be his best advices! The 2019 Grand National opinion expressed paid a £2,260-93 tricast for a £60 (£1×60) permed stake (five selections). 

7/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been the BOZ’s mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year he packs in.

“I play cautiously and strategically with bank management always in mind.”  Boz 

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