BOZmail 18th JULY

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2020 home of the BOZmail

Welcome to the BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet. 


SATURDAY JULY 18th  2020 

AN ANNOUNCEMENT ON PLANS FOR THE BOZMAIL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE 2020 CYCLE.

Things are becoming clearer and with the caveat that all could change again depending on how the global situation develops, here at least is the BOZ’s recommendations for how we proceed. 

The majority in our poll taken in June voted to trust the BOZ’s advice about when it was safe to start resuming traditional LIM play again. The banks have been reopened and tentative measures to get back to how it was have resumed but clearly the continued erratic performance on the flat and the continued very high incidence of runners at a limited number of tracks has interfered with the competence of the approach. It does look likely now that attempts to carry on in the manor normally adopted are not guaranteed to achieve the expected scores. That is not a given however as The BOZ is adapting as you have seen and the return of jumps racing practice has steadied things. As that continues to stabilize, there would be hope that traditional scores could be achieved with the bulk of the NH season ahead.

His recommendation that a move to trading LIM on certain days when LIM traditional selection has been interfered with or simply prohibited by the circumstances we find ourselves in is now the official line. Those days will be clearly marked and members will continue to have the choice whether to proceed on that recommendation or stick to the traditional non trading LIM method. The BOZ will be preparing daily race reads on the same race for both respecting those who have stated their wish to stick to the traditional non trading advice approach. That state of affairs will continue for the rest of this cycle and stats will be kept for both approaches. When those who choose generally to follow the trading option should consider switching back to the non trading advice (because confidence in the race read is strong and it presents a better chance to optimise profit) will be flagged up by The BOZ.  

That plan does in general seem best way to keep profits moving forward for both groups. Those wishing to stick to the traditional approach and those wishing to switch to the trading option. A similar choice will remain with the to follow advices. They are generally trading advices but the option to back without trading is always there as a choice for those who prefer that option. The horses are selected with both approaches in mind and which approach scores better has varied over the two years or so that operation has been in practice. The BOZ will again flag there when he considers his more normal trading preference is switching to a strong back only recommendation.

The good news to be announced is that tennis comes back on to the sheet in September with the announcement that both US Open and French Open will now go ahead in that month. They will be different events to normal of course and a very good chance of completely different participants in each event. Quite an exciting prospect however. For some reason the upheaval created in tennis looks likely to be less problematic than that caused in horse racing. To the punter at least. We shall see if that proves true. The BOZ looks forward to that challenge in any case whereas the horses still have him scratching his head!

And so September – a month traditionally missed by LIM because in the normal cycle that’s when its effectiveness is in question (January also in a normal year) – will be full steam ahead. January likewise. Goodness knows what plans for the 2021 cycle will be. We’ll cross that bridge when we get to it!

Stay safe.

BOZ  

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 LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Currently stands at : 20.3364 points (+0.3364 points)

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TENNIS & TO FOLLOW HORSE BACK/TRADE STARTING BANK = 8 points

Currently stands at : 14.0733 points (+6.0733 points)

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OCCASIONAL ACCA STARTING BANK = 5 points

Currently stands at : 4.385 points (-0.615 points)

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SPECIAL ROYAL ASCOT fixed odds bets = (-0.554 points)

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Post Lockdown Litmus Test Bozbets = (+0.085 points)

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BOZmail 2020 cycle PART ONE(1/2 – 31/5) overall profit  = +4.2876 points

                                      PART TWO(1/6 – 31/1 )  overall profit = +5.3257 points

                                          BOZmail 2020 overall score = +9.6133 points

PART ONE LIM 2020 Strike Rates: Lays: 25/41 = 60.97%  Backs: 9/29 = 31.03%

PART TWO LIM 2020 Strike rates: Lays 22/30 = 73.33%  Backs : 2/11 = 18.18%

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LESS IS MORE: 

7-35 BATH

Friday’s Recommendation:

0.15pt LAY on ANYONECANHAVEITALL ( around 3.3 or preferably lower to be hedged as and when preferential odds are available)

Laid @ 3.0 : Hedged 0.135pt @ 3.3 : P/L = 0.0147pts

My play for Saturday is to take on Anno Maximo in a very low grade race at Bath. Did struggle in the final furlong LTO and Bath is sure to test that resolve again and my figures give better time chances to Costello,Lafontaine and to a lesser extent Global Agreement.

As you saw with yesterday’s race read, it is really hard at the moment to know which one’s to trust and which one’s to not so that my instinct more to trade this one or not – which has proved an incorrect instinct for the past two days – is based purely on caution. But even that is debatable in which is the greater risk as we saw yesterday with several of you having to accept damage limitation on Anyonecanhaveitall having missed the early price drift when traditional play or trading in play was perfectly feasible as the race read was correct. Such are the times we are in. The BOZ marginally considers the trading approach the more cautious because he has plenty of time to give to market watch. You must fit your choice around your preferences and circumstances. Either way, starting stake remains small on the flat. I will be increasing those only over jumps and/or when I have a strong confident play. 

Good Luck to us all.

Recommendation:

0.15pt LAY on ANNO MAXIMO (around 3.3 or lower if you can get it to be hedged when appropriate if trading is your chosen option. In play trading again not recommended here unless circumstance or markets change overnight)

This is the first race on which stats will be kept for both trading and non trading plays.

 LIM Scores in July:

1st:  +0.1054   (+0.1054) Lays @ 2.22 & 2.4 : Backs @ 3.1 & 2.56

2nd: -0.126      (-0.0206) Lay @ 1.48 : Backs @ 16.0 & 40.0

3rd:  +0.0232   (+0.0026) Lay @ 1.7 : Back @ 1.96

4th:   +0.1313  (+0.1339) Lay @ 2.76 : Back @ 4.0

5th:   -0.1         (+0.0339) Back @ 3.0

6th:   NO BET

7th:   +0.098   (+0.1319) Lay @ 2.5

8th & 9th: NO BET

10th: +0.1225 (+0.2544) Lay@ 3.05 : Back @ 5.5

11th: +0.0245 (+0.2789) Lay@ 4.0 : Back @ 5.4

12th: +0.098  (+0.3769) Lay@3.75

13th: +0.098  (+0.4749) Lay@3.08 : Back @ 4.13

14th: +0.049  (+0.5239) Lay@3.6 : Back @ 13.5

15th: NO BET

16th: -0.245  (+0.2789) Lay @ 1.98 

17th: + 0.0147 (+0.2936) Lay @ 3.0 : Back @ 3.3

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BOZmail 2020 – Horses to follow on the flat:

Muker – Entered for York ( Aug 20)

Significantly – Entered for York (Aug 20) & Doncaster (Sep 10)

Malotru 

English King 

Ransom

Virgin Snow – Entered for Newbury (July 18)

Collinsbay – Entered for Chepstow (July 21) & Doncaster (Sep 10)

Uncle Jumbo – Entered for York (Aug 20) & Doncaster (Sep 10)

On My Way 

Battleground – Entered for Doncaster (Sep 10) & Curragh(Sep13)

Waseem Faris 

Little Chance

Samwell (FR)

Royal Air Force – Entered in the 2021 Derby (June 5)

BOZmail 2020 – NH Horses to follow (Part Two):

Aleatoric – Entered for Market Rasen (July 20)

Check My Pulse – Entered for Perth (July 21)

Ginstrelli – Entered for Southwell (July 19)

Balagan 

Perle Rose

Ashutor – Entered for Stratford (July 21)

Sangha River – Entered for Market Rasen (July 20)

Captain Tom Cat 

Beholden

Lord Condi

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The BOZmail golden rules:

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(the boz’s job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a lay price or if a specified low lay tissue price goes on a significant drift. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges. The recommendation is always to secure a price (if possible) when actually placing the lay bet. Your discretion based on personal form study and watching the markets develop also encouraged to ensure you maximise returns.The staking advices are a general rather than rigid dictate – mainly for the less experienced and those not able to spend time watching markets develop and practising the optimum betting time skill. Remember also that a lay price available at a significantly lower level than stated on the sheet offers opportunity to increase lay stake without increasing calculated safe lay liability. This can be a key profit optimising tool in the long term if your form study agrees with that published by The Boz.

5/ Always keep in mind the long term ‘importance of  breaking even’ philosophy and practice. This is very much used by The Boz in his staking advices and is recommended in your betting practices – especially during the down spells – in order to maintain a healthy and consistent bank.

6/ Always remember the BOZ does traditionally suffer from Murphys Law. If he expresses his opinion but states that he won’t be betting on it himself and isn’t making it an official tip, remember that historically these can be his best advices! The 2019 Grand National opinion expressed paid a £2,260-93 tricast for a £60 (£1×60) permed stake (five selections). 

7/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been the BOZ’s mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year he packs in.

“I play cautiously and strategically with bank management always in mind.”  Boz 

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