BOZmail – 18th JANUARY

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2019 home of the BOZmail

 

Welcome to the new BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet.

 

FRIDAY JANUARY 18th 2019

 

LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Stands at 25.5 points after month 1

 

LESS IS MORE: FRIDAY PLAY

1-45 MUSSELBURGH

Just plain wrong on Thursday and I hold my hands up to an in and out patch following the 18 lay run prior to it. Such is the way but to have misread and misbacked two odds on shots in three days is most unlike me. Time to return to taking on favourites as this system was designed so to do.

Chosen this from the many on offer at Musselburgh for that purpose. Gettysburg Address must give weight to a couple that both have ratings and form at the weights on their side on my figures with Elmono my idea of a much needed winner. Has course and distance form also which is beneficial at this quick track whilst Gettysburg Address has looked sticky and slow and anything but a natural chaser.

With profit for January back around the level it was on the 6th, we are operating the importance of breaking even. Profit protection now very much in my strategy as I try to see out the last fortnight of a month that has always been traditionally trying. Alternative strategies on all weather and the tennis haven’t made things worse but aren’t helping either. Decidedly one of those times when it pays to stay resolute and tough. Rewarding times lie ahead and important we don’t start needing winners to pay for sloppy losers.

 

Two To Follow runners on Friday also listed below.

 

Recommendation:

0.2pt LAY on GETTYSBURG ADDRESS

0.1pt BACK on ELMONO

 

BLWM LIM strike rates:  LAYS: 35/43 = 81.39% :   BACKS: 6/26 = 23.07%

 

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NH TO FOLLOW LIST STARTING BANK = 15 points

Stands at 15.00 points

 

The Bozmail to follow list has a combination of simply the most exciting horses I’ve seen in current race watching and a selection of those I’ve gotten to know over the years who are getting close to the place where they can be expected to win again. The list is ever changing and I have a subs bench of horses waiting to get on all the time. Candidates also disappear with regularity if they underperform or look to have shot their bolt in the win. So a fluid list that you’ll see altering all the time. I’ll log entries on this sheet as they occur and recommend staking advices on the day they are due to run after I’ve had chance to assess the race they are competing in. These selections can be backed to fixed odds or traded either in or before running as is your preference. There is profit whichever way you play over time.

 

From June 2018, The Bozmail switched to recommending trading the majority of these runners, including inplay trading, to back at optimum prices and hedge accordingly when appropriate. Profit figures were increased on previous years because of that so if you feel confident enough to approach like that, by all means. I will certainly be playing that way. I shall however post as fixed odds selections and the service arbiter will settle all results to Betfair SP in line with his fairness to all policy.

 

2019 BOZmail NH JUMPERS TO FOLLOW:

(* indicates early candidates for Cheltenham Festival Glory)

Willoughby Court *

Waiting Patiently * – Entered for Leopardstown (Feb 2 & 3)

Rebel Og  

Return Ticket  

Adjourned

Dynamite Dollars  

Itchy Feet *

Frodon *

Ask Paddington

Lady Buttons *

Ribble Valley  

La Bague au Roi *  – Entered for Leopardstown (Feb 3)

Benatar *

Captain Zebo

Magic of Light  

Unwin VC

Nicolas Chauvin

Vinndication *

Valtor

Ruby Yeats

Lostintranslation*

Cliffs of Dover*

Ebony Gale

Zakharova  

Indian Opera

 

NH TO FOLLOW RUNNERS ON FRIDAY JAN 18:

2-10 CHEPSTOW – UNWIN VC – 0.1pt @ 16/1 or better

2-15 MUSSELBURGH – INDIAN OPERA – NO BET

Indian Opera has found another very uncompetitive race but has to give the penalty and at 2/5 is simply not worth the risk in the current position we hold. Could get beat at the weights so we abstain and use the occasion to watch and learn about a horse I do intend to follow.Unwin VC however is just the sort we need! Big price and further play into my Importance of breaking even policy. If he wins, it’ll be all profit with no losers to pay for. A big if maybe or maybe not. A horse I seriously liked when I watched him win his two bumpers – the second a most impressive carrying of his penalty. From a small and largely inactive stable but a canny trainer nevertheless who knows how to bring a good one on. Has been patient and taught him his jumping FTO this season and showed distinct improvement LTO. And is a horse sure to pay a profit for a level stakes follow if we are patient and consistent. This is the sort of big race field I never attempt to race read and only ever back in when I have a horse I believe in running. That is today. Watch and enjoy whatever the outcome. Unwin VC will do his best for you.

 

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AUSTRALIAN OPEN TENNIS – Thursday night at Midnight:

Konta paid us a trading profit courtesy of rescuing the second set in the tie-break and overall put up a good show I thought against a rejuvenated Muguruza who may go on to be dangerous in the tournament on that evidence. I found myself playing – with it not starting til after I’d had my lunch! A half past midnight start in Melbourne and the record for the latest (and most ridiculous) starting time in a slam ever!

Day 5 is a watch only day. I have done an extensive sweep of the remaining 32 and do have ideas for starting an outights portfolio but I’ll watch this night first to see whether the shocks that are still absent happen here. Nothing I wanted to take risks on. Sometimes it is about watching and seeing. Enjoy the night in bed if you have been staying up. More anon.  

 

                    

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STAGGERED ACCA RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 10 points

Stands at 9.5 points.

Staggered acca number 5:

 

Awaiting the emergence of the next weapons grade selection before setting out again

on leg 1.

 

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Good Luck with your bets.

 

BOZ

 

The BOZmail golden rules:

 

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(that’s my job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a price. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges)

5/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been my mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year I pack in.

 

I play cautiously and strategically with bank management also always in mind. The staggered acca is the attempt to win large from small stake. The LIM is the cashbuilder to gradually accumulate profit over a 12 month period.

 

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