BOZmail 18th JANUARY

JANUARY 2021 – 31 day extension to

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2020 home of the BOZmail

Welcome to the BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet

MONDAY JANUARY 18th  2021

EXTENSION DAY 18:

1-25 AYR

Ok, so I spent Sunday playing the Nuisance Neighbour dog system and winning my daily target thus getting my mojo back for LIM (drop me a mail if you ain’t in on NN dog system and want to be.The premise is published as a fully researched document now available to all BOZmailers whether you are staying or leaving for next year’s cycle). Reminded myself that the premise of LIM is to devise the best single play in the qualifying UK horse races of the day. Through the period of favs winning predominantly ( 12 from 16 in the Wednesday to Saturday spell last week) I have to shift from the instinct to find the best fav to lay and work on the second favs. That’s the rule I was ignoring on Friday when I saw Mr Carbonator was a lay but instead of isolating that and scoring a profit day, I let the other instinct to try end the year cycle with a big winner take over and laid the fav in aswell. A straight mistake at the end of the day. Easy to see with hindsight. Greed. Never a friend in betting (or life) and a positive enemy for LIM. I had my big winner in For Pleasure middle of November. There might be another before we are done but doesn’t pay to try to conjure it when its not there. Alright Marlene was an ok effort at that point but failed. Go back to the grind is the thing I didn’t do.

So with 0.7pt monthly profit still there, bank management is tight but not the emergency situation I had in June when I had to resort to the last ditch trade all selections just to claw back the bank loss into profit. So what I do is accept the fav winning stat and work with it. Carefully and moderately. No need to just blanket back the favs. That does stick in my craw as an option despite having some logic. Let’s stick to LIM principle and ride the tough spell. Keep as I have done to minimal stakes until the losing streak is busted. That’s the main immediate aim. To bust the losing streak. Then play out the month remembering the favs stat for second half of Jan.

For those pushing for switch to tennis or dogs, the former just isn’t there for LIM approach whilst the Grand Slam has been moved to February. And the dogs I can find no way of adapting the dog system to LIM tipping. I did try but it is so unlike the LIM approach. A polar opposite in fact. You can’t smash it into LIM and make just one race play a day and expect to win long term. You simply can’t. Those who asked me to contemplate that even if I didn’t decide to try and LIM it as a trial on the BOZmail and just send it to them privately each day. Answer is : not even a possibility. Not if you want to expect a long term profit. That comes from the NN approach only. You have to read my document if you don’t already understand why.

So I stick with LIM here. Looked at the 2nd fav in the 12.55 at Ayr and that is a possible play but I’m also staying with option three and sticking to normal when the fancy is quite strong and this one is. Cornerstone Lad’s win in the Fighting Fifth was a shock at the time but he backed it up with subsequent hurdle form. Especially on tomorrow’s heavy ground. And his chase debut behind Cheddleton was a piece of what I consider superior form as Cheddleton is on my stable of eight that I have compiled for an attempt at the staggered acca on the BOZmail in early 2021 cycle.

I’ve told those signing up for that next year already ( still a couple of places left if anyone has changed their mind about staying in for next year) and it comes from the realisation that my To Follow list for 2020 did come up with a larger incidence of top drawer prospects than a normal year. The surprise from what has been an otherwise poor to mediocre year. To suggest that we may well be in for a reactionary bonanza in 2021.

Often the way if you’ve been around in Racing a fair while. Its about surviving the poor year intact and with some ammo left to still go at the next wave. I’m suddenly feeling quite bullish about 2021. Will be even more so if I’ve got this one right.

Dame De Compagnie will probably start fav sent all the way from Henderson’s yard and does get the mare’s allowance.

But Cornerstone Lad is more than 7lb in on my hurdle figures and has that chase experience which might indeed turn out to be top drawer form. Cheddleton is not that far behind Shiskin. Second to him on Chase debut was very encouraging.

Hammond’s stable could be in better form. In fact he’s right out with his NH runners but the ground is an undoubted plus. Right jockey on board. And value price likely because of the stable form. I’m only aiming to break the losing streak still so stake remains miniscule. Profit protection at the fore. 

I’ve had my pep talk to myself though. Let’s see if we can’t start the new week with a winner!

Recommendation:

0.1pt BACK on CORNERSTONE LAD (around 2.3 or biggest price you get offered)

BOZmail 2020 cycle : 2020 overall score = +59.5102points

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 LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Currently stands at : 33.9211 points (+13.9211 points)

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LESS IS MORE

LIM 2020 Strike rates: Lays 134/194 = 69.07%  Backs : 38/125 = 30.4%

LIM Monthly Scores:

February: + 1.3496 points

March  : + 1.5866 points

UK RACING LOCKDOWN

April     : – 0.1733 points

May      : – 0.8359 points

UK RACING RESTARTED

June     : + 0.0428 points

July      : + 0.8046 points 

August :  +1.9726 points   (+4.747 points)

September : +1.0071 points (+5.7541 points)

October : + 2.1487 points (+7.9028 points)

November : +4.468 points (+12.3708 points)

December :  +0.8487 points (+13.2195 points)

January LIM Score:

1st:      +0.098 (+0.098) Lay @ 2.75

2nd:     +0.049 (+0.147) Lay @ 2.5 : Back @ 7.0

3rd:      +0.098 (+0.245) Lay @ 2.3

4th:      +0.147 (+0.392) Lay @ 2.6

5th:      NO BET

6th:      +0.098 (+0.49)   Lay @ 3.7 (averaged)

7th:      RACING ABANDONED

8th:      NO BET

9th:      +0.588 (+1.078) Lay @ 2.4 : Back @ 11.0

10th:    +0.098 (+1.176) Lay @ 2.26 : Back @ 5.0

11th:    +0.1176 (+1.2936) Lay @ 2.9

12th:     -0.218  (+1.0756) Lay @ 2.4 : Back @ 61.0

13th:     -0.131  (+0.9446) Lay @ 1.81 : Back @ 8.0

14th:     -0.1       (+0.8446) Back @ 3.1

15th:     -0.075   (+0.7696) Lays @ 2.0 & 3.8 : Back @ 18.0

16th:     -0.068   (+0.7016) Lay @ 2.06 : Back @ 4.0

17th:     NO BET

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