BOZmail – 18th FEBRUARY

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2019 home of the BOZmail

 

Welcome to the new BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet.

 

MONDAY FEBRUARY 18th 2019

 

LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Stood at 26.0 points after month 1

Stands at 25.83 points after month 2

 

LESS IS MORE: MONDAY PLAY

5-30 NEWCASTLE

Still smarting over the error of mixing my LIM and my to follow plays in the Betfair Chase yesterday (and breaking what looked a possible start to a winning lay streak again) but the pain lessened a little by noting that Cyrname broke the Ascot course record in beating Waiting Patiently 17 lengths and it has permeated belatedly that we witnessed something special. I have decided to be gracious and include Cyrname on the to follow list and intend to recoup my losses from him in the months and years ahead! Waiting Patiently also retains his place on the list despite being trounced. Don’t quite know where he goes from that but I give him one more chance. Soft ground a must now it would seem.

LIM returned to its roots on Sunday and Mixchievous lived up to her name and behaved like a proper madame! And so damage immediately repaired and Rainy Day Dylan also ran with promise and will come on again I’d say on softer ground and when the Mulholland stable returns to form. Keep an eye on that. May happen soon now.

And Monday sees us desert the UK turf with no qualifiers at Carlisle or Lingfield and hop over to an all weather sprint at Newcastle where Giacomo Casnaova looks worth taking on with Sister of the Sign and One One Seven. Giacomo won easily over course and distance LTO but ran an inferior time to Sister of the Sign who was impressive in leading all the way in its race. Not an easy thing to do at Newcastle.

Giacomo is also penalised more heavily for its win and has to give weight to both rivals and looks very underpriced to me at even money. Snap it up pronto. One One Seven is held on LTO form behind Sister of the Sign but hails from a stable in form and may have needed the run LTO carrying his win penalty. Previous course and distance win also outgunned the Giacomo time and he may well be much more competitive this time round.

 

Recommendation:

0.45pt LAY on GIACOMO CASANOVA (at around 2.0 and no greater than 2.6)

0.15pt BACK on SISTER OF THE SIGN (around 4.5)

0.1pt BACK on ONE ONE SEVEN (around 6.0)

BLWM LIM strike rates:  LAYS: 48/66 = 72.72% :   BACKS: 8/43 = 18.60%

 

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NH TO FOLLOW LIST STARTING BANK = 15 points

Stands at 14.2875 points

 

The Bozmail to follow list has a combination of simply the most exciting horses I’ve seen in current race watching and a selection of those I’ve gotten to know over the years who are getting close to the place where they can be expected to win again. The list is ever changing and I have a subs bench of horses waiting to get on all the time. Candidates also disappear with regularity if they underperform or look to have shot their bolt in the win. So a fluid list that you’ll see altering all the time. I’ll log entries on this sheet as they occur and recommend staking advices on the day they are due to run after I’ve had chance to assess the race they are competing in. These selections can be backed to fixed odds or traded either in or before running as is your preference. There is profit whichever way you play over time.

 

From June 2018, The Bozmail switched to recommending trading the majority of these runners, including inplay trading, to back at optimum prices and hedge accordingly when appropriate. Profit figures were increased on previous years because of that so if you feel confident enough to approach like that, by all means. I will certainly be playing that way. I shall however post as fixed odds selections and the service arbiter will settle all results to Betfair SP in line with his fairness to all policy.

 

2019 BOZmail NH JUMPERS TO FOLLOW:

(* indicates early candidates for Cheltenham Festival Glory)

Waiting Patiently * – Entered for Ryanair Chase (Mar 14)

Return Ticket  

Adjourned

Itchy Feet * – Entered for Supreme Novices (Mar 12)

Frodon * – Entered for Ryanair (Mar 14) & Gold Cup (Mar 15)

Ask Paddington

Lady Buttons * – Entered for OLBG (Mar 12) & Queen Mother (Mar 13)

Ribble Valley  

La Bague au Roi *  – Entered for RSA (Mar 13) & JLT (Mar 14)

Benatar

Captain Zebo

Magic of Light  – Entered for  Grand National (Apr 6)

Unwin VC

Nicolas Chauvin

Vinndication * – Entered for RSA (Mar 13) & JLT (Mar 14)

Valtor – Entered for Albert Bartlett (Mar 15) & Grand National (Apr 6)

Lostintranslation* – Entered in JLT (Mar 14)

Cliffs of Dover

Ebony Gale

Zakharova  

Indian Opera – Entered for OLBG (Mar 12)

Happy Diva

Elegant Escape – Entered for Gold Cup (Mar 15) & Grand National (Apr 6)

Kaiser Black

Le Richebourg* – Entered for the Arkle (Mar 12) & JLT (Mar 14)

Parlour Maid

Good Man Pat – Entered for the JLT (Mar 14)

All Currencies

Master Dino*

Knocknanuss* – Entered in the Arkle (Mar 12)

The Mighty Ash

Pistol Whipped – Entered for Lingfield (Feb 18)

Cyrname

Rainy Day Dylan

 

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STAGGERED ACCA RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 10 points

Stands at 9.5 points.

Staggered acca number 6:

 

Will shout when the new one is ready to start.

 

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Good Luck with your bets.

 

BOZ

 

The BOZmail golden rules:

 

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(that’s my job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a lay price or if a specified low lay tissue price goes on a significant drift. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges)

5/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been my mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year I pack in.

 

I play cautiously and strategically with bank management also always in mind. The staggered acca is the attempt to win large from small stake. The LIM is the cashbuilder to gradually accumulate profit over a 12 month period.

 

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