BOZmail – 18th FEBRUARY

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2020 home of the BOZmail

Welcome to the BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet. 

TUESDAY FEBRUARY 18th  2020 

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 LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Currently standing at 20.3563 points

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TENNIS & TO FOLLOW HORSE TRADE STARTING BANK = 8 points

Currently standing at 9.2041 points

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OCCASIONAL ACCA STARTING BANK = 5 points

Currently standing at 5.07 points

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LESS IS MORE: Tuesday play

2-30 MUSSELBURGH

The weight of BOZmail money on Eureu Du Boulay affected the market I fancy and made the hero’s price a bit of a steal. Bonus points for those who noticed that and took advantage. Not a deliberate ploy by the BOZ as I fancied Eureu and he was ultimately pretty disappointing but the market was very revealing and I may utilise that aspect as we go on through the year. There are a lot of us at it and we will move the market at the smaller tracks I fancy.We did a bit this time last year. One I shall keep under my hat as a weapon of occasion. Meanwhile you can note that early staking for best price on the backs will be a feature for the time being. And value, especially on positively highlighted horses, should always be respected.   

Meanwhile a victory for heart over head. Wasn’t the Captain impressive again? Looked a million dollars in the paddock. Back on my to follow list where he belongs.

And his presence dominates the play on Tuesday at Musselburgh where colateral form on a line through his efforts at Carlisle gives First Account a potential advantage over the tissue fav Pogue.

Pogue has the champ elect aboard (which will compress price again as it did on Monday) and a couple of positives in that form LTO has been boosted and the McCain yard ought to have a line on First Account with him only just having left their yard. He was demolished by Captain Zebo however (27 lengths) whereas First Account made a decent fist only 3 and a bit lengths down and the latter is also quite unexposed and open to more improvement for his new stable after Chase debut LTO. 

If he jumps, very sound winning chance and the fav has the added negatives of 8lb penalty for win LTO and benefitting LTO from the second outing after a wind op factor.

Ground may also be softer than ideal for him which lets in course and distance winner I’m too Generous as decent LIM cover.

It is to First Account however that I turn for the back. His stable stat of 100% running to form over past 14 days is always a factor that I am encouraged by. Taxmeifyoucan ran better than expected in Carlisle’s race yesterday.

Get the best prices that you can.

Recommendation:

0.15pt LAY on POGUE (around 3.0 or preferably less. Open to your discretion)

0.075pt BACK on FIRST ACCOUNT

LIM 2020 Strike Rates: Lays: 8/13 = 61.53%  Backs: 1/6 = 16.66%

THE BOZ’s daily LIM record for FEBRUARY:

1st:  +0.196  (+0.196) Lay @ 3.3

2nd: +0.147 (+0.343) Lay @ 2.28

3rd: +0.196 (+0.539) Lay @ 2.9

4th:  NO BET DAY

5th: NO BET DAY

6th: +0.097 (+0.636) Lay @ 2.5 : Back @ 15.0

7th: -0.288 (+0.348) Lay @ 1.96

8th:   -0.2 (+0.148) Back @ 2.56

9th: RACING ABANDONED

10th: -0.21 (-0.062) Lay @ 2.4

11th: -0.191 (-0.253) Lay @ 1.94 : Back @ 14.0

12th: +0.6223 (+0.3693) Lays @ 2.64 & 3.04 : Back @ 6.4

13th:  -0.14 (+0.2293) Lay @ 2.4

14th:  +0.147 (+0.3763) Lays @ 4.2 & 4.65(in running) : Back @ 14.0

15th:  -0.204 (+0.1723) Lay @ 2.36

16th:  +0.098 (+0.2703) Lay @ 2.4

17th:  +0.086 (+0.3563) Lay @ 2.7 : Back @ 6.6

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WINTER NH HORSES TO FOLLOW for TRADING or LIM PURPOSES:

Unwin VC* 

Tea Clipper* 

Black Op – Entered for RSA & Marsh Novices (Mar 11&12)

Verdana Blue – Entered for Champion Hurdle & Mares Hurdle (Mar 10)

Maire Banrigh* – Entered for Arkle (Mar 10) & Marsh Novices (Mar 12)

Wenceslaus* – Entered for Huntingdon (Feb 20)

Thyme Hill* – Entered for Ballymore & Albert Bart(Mar 13)

Nordano* 

Indian Opera

Lady Bowes 

Vinndication 

Lostintranslation* – Entered for Gold Cup at Cheltenham (Mar 13)

Cat Tiger* – Entered for Ballymore (Mar 11) & Albert Bartlett (Mar 13)               

Welsh Saint* 

Normandy Soldier* 

Jatiluwih 

Esprit Du Large – Entered for The Arkle (Mar 10) & Marsh Novices (Mar 12)

Magic of Light* – Entered for Punch(Feb 19), Chelt (Mar 10) & Grand National (Apr 4)

Defi Sacre* 

Lieutenant Rocco – Entered for Warwick (Feb 21) & the Albert Bartlett Novice (Mar 13)

Israel Champ

Soaring Glory 

Ambion Hill 

Quick Wave

It’safreebee – Entered for Doncaster (Feb 19)

Sporting John – Entered for Exeter (Feb 21) & Supreme & Ballymore at Cheltenham

Captain Zebo

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ANTE POST ACCA FOR CHELTENHAM FESTIVAL:

Lostintranslation @ 8/1

Verdana Blue @ 33/1

Marie Banrigh @ 25/1

Thyme Hill @ 6/1

0.01pt WIN ACCA with acca edge accepted. 

 Good Luck with your bets.

BOZ

The BOZmail golden rules:

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(the boz’s job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a lay price or if a specified low lay tissue price goes on a significant drift. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges. The recommendation is always to secure a price (if possible) when actually placing the lay bet. Your discretion based on personal form study and watching the markets develop also encouraged to ensure you maximise returns.The staking advices are a general rather than rigid dictate – mainly for the less experienced and those not able to spend time watching markets develop and practising the optimum betting time skill. Remember also that a lay price available at a significantly lower level than stated on the sheet offers opportunity to increase lay stake without increasing calculated safe lay liability. This can be a key profit optimising tool in the long term if your form study agrees with that published by The Boz.

5/ Always keep in mind the long term ‘importance of  breaking even’ philosophy and practice. This is very much used by The Boz in his staking advices and is recommended in your betting practices – especially during the down spells – in order to maintain a healthy and consistent bank.

6/ Always remember the BOZ does traditionally suffer from Murphys Law. If he expresses his opinion but states that he won’t be betting on it himself and isn’t making it an official tip, remember that historically these can be his best advices! The 2019 Grand National opinion expressed paid a £2,260-93 tricast for a £60 (£1×60) permed stake (five selections). 

7/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been the BOZ’s mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year he packs in.

“I play cautiously and strategically with bank management always in mind.”  Boz 

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