BOZmail – 18th DECEMBER

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2019 home of the BOZmail

 

Welcome to the new BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet.

 

TUESDAY DECEMBER 18th 2018

 

LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

 

LESS IS MORE: TUESDAY PLAY

2-40 CATTERICK

The importance of breaking even is a crucial concept/philosophy in the BOZmail and LIM strategy especially regarding daily play. Important to be either side of break even in the leaner spells so that when you do land a big pricer, it’s all profit and not having to be used to pay for losers. So ok on Monday on a very tough day to see a way ahead. Llantaris did come to have his go. Just wasn’t quite good enough. No further damage done and still on the trail to recovering Saturday’s mistake.

And I do have a big pricer in this. I’d like to have seen Richard Johnson booked for Nicolas Chauvin as he rode a masterclass on this ex-Henderson inmate last time he won. Sadly the champ has a full book at Fakenham for Olly Murphy which is probably a tip. I stick with Chauvin anyways despite the poor stable form. Moffatt known for just coming out when he’s ready and he runs a few at Catterick tomorrow of which this is most interesting. On an excellent mark now so just has to be ready and fit to run his race. Not the greatest jumper but class of sorts when he consents to show it. That just happens to be very rarely but price in accordance with that and this is how you back a big pricer in the knowledge that his mark is magnificent. Just got to be bouncing to have a real chance here. Of the rest, I lay to pay for on Midnight Chill who has to overcome his penalty and back up what was a wind op improved run LTO. Doesn’t always happen and the time of the Sedgefield win wasn’t great.

Breeding also suggests he’ll need further. Catterick a fast track and Halcyon Days holds the better time figure in my book and also holds Middlebrow at the weights on its Carlisle run so is a value bet in the field. I do therefore also play strategic and lay Middlebrow small here as I actually fancy all three of the outsiders with Buyer Beware having distinct scope for improvement over the shorter trip after his encouraging run at the track LTO. Like the Chauvin however, his stable also on a bit of a cold list spell.

 

There is a need to break the barren spell with backs now so playing strategic on that and also looking at introducing the BOZmail NH horses to follow on to this service with sporadic backs or recommended trades over the Xmas and New Year period. I will recommend a separate bank for when that starts and more details to follow. Meanwhile keep your eye on our darts bet which swings into action on Wednesday this week.

 

Recommendation:

0.5pt LAY on MIDNIGHT CHILL

0.15pt LAY on MIDDLEBROW

0.1pt BACK on HALCYON DAYS

0.1pt BACK on NICOLAS CHAUVIN

 

BLWM LIM strike rates:  LAYS: 13.5/17 = 79.41% :   BACKS: 1/11 = 9.09%

 

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STAGGERED ACCA RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 10 points

 

STAGGERED ACCA NUMBER 2:

(remember that stake of successful first leg bet is always returned directly to bank and that stake for leg two is simply the winnings from leg one.)

 

Joe Cullen available to lay at 80.0 this morning on Betfair so those that do like to play risk free and got the 100/1 I recommended can hedge out now for a free bet over

the Xmas period. I personally will be hanging on until after first game played – which I expect him to win –  with a view to hedging out with profit to use on the second leg of the staggered acca.

 

Good Luck with your bets.

 

BOZ

 

The BOZmail golden rules:

 

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(that’s my job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a price. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges)

5/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been my mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year I pack in.

 

I play cautiously and strategically with bank management also always in mind. The staggered acca is the attempt to win large from small stake. The LIM is the cashbuilder to gradually accumulate profit over a 12 month period.

 

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