BOZmail 18th DECEMBER

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2020 home of the BOZmail

Welcome to the BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet

FRIDAY DECEMBER 18th  2020

 LESS IS MORE

LIM 2020 Strike rates: Lays 123/175 = 70.28%  Backs : 35/110 = 31.81%

3-35 ASCOT

Poor call Thursday I’m afraid and glad to be back amongst the quality at Ascot where a good day’s racing looks assured. Doesn’t make it any easier of course and a particularly hard set of races to call so that I’ve ended up in the bumper which looks especially tasty quality wise and we have a lively to follow chance to trade in Marble Sands (see below). I was mega impressed with the attitude of this one LTO under a terrific ride from Lily Pinchin and seemed to relish the conditions which will get again here. My race read however says might have it to do with Wonderwall so we’ll trade Marble Sands and lay the fav here from the Nicholls yard. Stage Star has had form from debut bumper win franked since (as has Marble Sands) but has a lesser time figure to boast and might also be second string from the Nicholls yard for whom Megan rides a dark horse that is difficult to evaluate in comparison to the others. Won its debut well but on good ground so that handling these conditions will be an unknown for Knappers Hill. Could prove the value however if its price drifts so keep an eye on that.

I stick with the course form and am laying Stage Star here and also playing up with a straight forecast on Wonderwall to beat Marble Sands.

Recommendations:

0.2pt LAY on STAGE STAR (around 2.7)

0.01pt STRAIGHT FORECAST – WONDERWALL to beat MARBLE SANDS

*****************************************************

BOZmail 2020 – NH Horses to follow (Part Two):

Parramount – Entered for Huntingdon (Dec 22)

Tamar Bridge

Wild Polly 

Straw Fan Jack 

Israel Champ

Bravemansgame 

Young Wolf 

Lady Bowes(soft) 

Captain Zebo 

Leoncavallo

Oscar Rose 

Charm Offensive 

Return Ticket(flat track) 

Boothill 

Lilly Pedlar

Getaway Luv

Across The Line

For Pleasure 

Shan Blue – Entered for Cheltenham (Mar 17 & 18)

Shang Tang 

Snow Leopardess 

Marble Sands 

Dusart 

Bobby Bow (heavy) 

Ga Law – Entered for Cheltenham (Mar 16,17 & 18)

First Flow 

Get Your Own

Thyme Hill – Entered for Ascot (Dec 19) & Cheltenham (Mar 17 & 18)

Floressa – Entered for Cheltenham (Mar 16)

Cheddleton – Entered for Haydock (Dec 19)

Le Bateau

BOZmail Winter All Weather Horses To Follow:

Sealed Offer

********************

NH HORSES TO FOLLOW/TRADE at Ascot on FRIDAY:

12-45 – SHANG TANG @ 7/1 – 0.25pt BACK

3-35  –  MARBLE SANDS @ 12/1 – 0.25pt BACK

Get the best prices you can and hedge as appropriate and/or when preferential odds are offered.

Two very competitive heats but I like both of ours from LTO runs and both have a strong each way chance if reproducing the form. Trades are the way to go however and the usual advice to get best prices and hedge when the run comes on ours which looks guaranteed in the time before the off. I may save some hedge for inplay if movement isn’t mega but mainly look to get a robust pre race trade leaving me plenty for the 1.1 and 1.01 at the death plays. I expect both to be involved still at the finish. 

 *******************

LIM Monthly Scores:

February: + 1.3496 points

March  : + 1.5866 points

UK RACING LOCKDOWN

April     : – 0.1733 points

May      : – 0.8359 points

UK RACING RESTARTED

June     : + 0.0428 points

July      : + 0.8046 points 

August :  +1.9726 points   (+4.747 points)

September : +1.0071 points (+5.7541 points)

October : + 2.1487 points (+7.9028 points)

November : +4.468 points (+12.3708 points)

****************************************************

LIM Scores for December:

1st:   +0.098   (+0.098) Lay @ 3.2

2nd:  +0.098 (+0.196) Lay @ 2.04 : Back @ 7.0

3rd:   NO BET

4th:    -0.16    (+0.036) Lay @ 1.8

5th:    -0.308  (-0.272) Lay @ 2.98 : Back @ 8.0

6th:    +0.147 (-0.125) Lay @ 2.66

7th:    +0.147 (+0.022) Lay @ 2.24 : Back @ 8.0

8th:    -0.374   (-0.352) Lay @ 2.62 : Back @ 9.0

9th:   +0.7056 (+0.3536) Back @ 7.0

10th:  +0.049  (+0.4026) Lay @ 2.96 : Back @ 9.4

11th:  +0.098  (+0.5006) Lay @ 4.5

12th:   -0.225   (+0.2756) Lay @ 2.5

13th:   +0.882  (+1.1576) Back @ 7.0

14th:    +0.147 (+1.3046) Lay @ 1.76 : Back @ 100.0

15th:    NO BET

16th:    +0.0735 (+1.3781) Lay @ 2.2 : Back @ 300.0

17th:     -0.13      (+1.2481) Lays @ 3.3 & 5.5

*****************************************************

BOZmail 2020 cycle : 2020 overall score = +53.8671points

*************************************************

 LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Currently stands at : 33.6189 points (+13.6189 points)

*************************************************

TENNIS & TO FOLLOW HORSE BACK/TRADE STARTING BANK = 8 points

Currently stands at : 50.1987 points (+42.1987 points)

*************************************************

OCCASIONAL ACCA STARTING BANK = 5 points

Currently stands at : 4.1985 points (-0.8015 points)

*************************************************

SPECIAL ROYAL ASCOT fixed odds bets = (-0.554 points)

******************************************

Post Lockdown Litmus Test Bozbets = (+0.085 points)

*************************************************

Local Track Factor Section = (-0.68 points)

*************************************************

The BOZmail golden rules:

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(the boz’s job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a lay price or if a specified low lay tissue price goes on a significant drift. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges. The recommendation is always to secure a price (if possible) when actually placing the lay bet. Your discretion based on personal form study and watching the markets develop also encouraged to ensure you maximise returns.The staking advices are a general rather than rigid dictate – mainly for the less experienced and those not able to spend time watching markets develop and practising the optimum betting time skill. Remember also that a lay price available at a significantly lower level than stated on the sheet offers opportunity to increase lay stake without increasing calculated safe lay liability. This can be a key profit optimising tool in the long term if your form study agrees with that published by The Boz.

5/ Always keep in mind the long term ‘importance of  breaking even’ philosophy and practice. This is very much used by The Boz in his staking advices and is recommended in your betting practices – especially during the down spells – in order to maintain a healthy and consistent bank.

6/ Always remember the BOZ does traditionally suffer from Murphys Law. If he expresses his opinion but states that he won’t be betting on it himself and isn’t making it an official tip, remember that historically these can be his best advices! The 2019 Grand National opinion expressed paid a £2,260-93 tricast for a £60 (£1×60) permed stake (five selections).

7/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been the BOZ’s mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year he packs in.

“I play cautiously and strategically with bank management always in mind.”  Boz

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *