BOZmail – 18th AUGUST

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2019 home of the BOZmail

Welcome to the new BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet. 

SUNDAY AUGUST 18th  2019 

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 LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Stands at 55.451 points after month 8 (+35.451 points profit)

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2019 BOZMAIL TENNIS WINNINGS:

Current Total      = +8.3313 points

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THE BOZ’s 2019 TO FOLLOW & TENNIS TRADES P/L:

Current Total      = +4.7952 points

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LESS IS MORE: SUNDAY PLAY

4-00 PONTEFRACT

I can hear you saying that LIM rejects are rejects for a reason and you may have a point as two of the three favs win. The one I did stick with got chinned after a bad jump at the last. Anyone see whether Dr Newland was there? I hedged out on the monkey the champ rode so didn’t do any damage personally but must admit it has questioned the wisdom of the approach. Narrowing to one LIM a day has always been the way. Perhaps shouldn’t mess with what works. Will think on.

Meanwhile, a quiet Sunday and not opposing the Jonjo fav at Southwell for obvious reasons which leaves this Global Hunter to take on at odds on. Drops back in trip for handicap debut but unknown on the ground and won his debut on a disqualification so can’t say I see him as bombproof. Dalaalaat and Global Gift have times to challenge him with and I wouldn’t rule Smile A Mile out either in calmer waters and with a push from the front.

Small oppose of the Suroor inmate.

Recommendations:

0.25pt LAY on GLOBAL HUNTER (around 1.96 ; no greater than 2.2)

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This month plays so far:

1st:       +1.244(+1.244) Lay @ 1.85 : Back @ 4.8

2nd:      -0.5465(+0.6975) Lay @ 1.99 : Back @ 3.3

3rd:       -0.024 (+0.6735) Lays @2.08 & 2.08 : Back @ 11.5

4th:       +0.045(+0.7185) Lay @ 3.45 : Back @ 11.0

5th:       +0.196(+0.9145) Lay @ 2.08

6th:        -0.48 (+0.4345) Lay @ 3.4

7th:        +0.39 (+0.8245) Lay @ 1.69 : Back @ 11.0

8th:        -0.4425(+0.382)  Lay @ 1.55 : Backs @ 6.4 & 4.1

9th:        +0.245 (+0.627) Lay @ 2.2

10th:       -0.655 (-0.028)  Lay @ 1.71 : Back @ 5.6

11th:       +0.147(+0.119) Lay @ 4.4

12th:       +0.145(+0.264) Lay @ 1.73 : Back @ 55.0

13th:       +0.145(+0.409) Lay @ 4.1 : Back @ 6.2

14th:       +1.434(+1.843) Lay @ 2.06 : Back @ 8.6

15th:        -0.3 (+1.543) Lay @ 1.6

16th:        NON RUNNER

17th:        +0.565(+2.108) Lay @ 1.55 : Back @ 4.2

BLWM LIM strike rates:  LAYS: 147/218 = 67.43% :   BACKS: 44/149 = 29.53%

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SUMMER NH HORSES TO FOLLOW for TRADING or LIM PURPOSES:

Commodore Barry

Kaizer 

Caius Marcius 

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HORSES TO FOLLOW ON THE FLAT:

Eightsome Reel 

Dee Ex Bee – Entered for Qipco Cup at Ascot (Oct 19)

Raise You – Entered for Ascot (Oct 19)

Maydanny

Roseman – Entered for Ascot (Oct 19)

Light Up Our Stars 

Waldpfad – Entered in Haydock Sprint Cup (Sep 7) & Ascot (Oct 19)

Miss Celestial – Entered for Pontefract (Aug 18)

Deirdre – Entered for Irish Champion Stakes at Leopardstown (Sep 14)&Ascot(Oct 19)

Piedita – Entered at Kempton (Aug 21)

James Watt – Entered for Ayr Gold Cup (Sep 21)

Lord of the Lodge – Entered at York (Aug 21) & in the Gimcrack (Aug 23)

HORSE TO FOLLOW/TRADE on SATURDAY

4-45 NEWBURY – POUR ME A DRINK @ 3/1 or better (Backed @ 7.0 ; hedged @ 2.92 = zero P/L)

Showed briefly to allow the hedge but a disappointing run alongside Sir Dragonet on Friday and the to follow list has undergone a subsequent cull!!

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STAGGERED ACCA RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 10 points

Stands at 9.12 points.

 Acca number 18: 

Back to the drawing board on that I think! Tennis staggered acca to attempt a mend to the bank and then maybe all hands to the LIM deck from then on. Tis LIM that knows what it is doing I think you’ll agree!!

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US OPEN PORTFOLIO:
 

Recommendations: 

1.5pt LAY on SERENA at around 6.4 

0.25pt BACK on AMANDA ANISIMOVA at 40/1 

0.25pt BACK on CORI GAUFF at 80/1 

0.25pt BACK on SOFIA KENIN at 66/1 

0.25pt BACK ON DANIELLE COLLINS at 250/1  

 Good Luck with your bets.

BOZ

The BOZmail golden rules:

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(the boz’s job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a lay price or if a specified low lay tissue price goes on a significant drift. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges. As from March 2019 onwards, advised not to take BETFAIR SP prices on lays following some adverse returns therein over the January/February period. The recommendation is always to secure a price (if possible) within the published parameters when actually placing the lay bet. Your discretion based on personal form study also encouraged to ensure you maximise returns.The staking advices are a general rather than rigid dictate – mainly for the less experienced and those not able to spend time watching markets develop and practising the optimum betting time skill.

5/ Always keep in mind the long term ‘importance of  breaking even’ philosophy and practice. This is very much used by The Boz in his staking advices and is recommended in your betting practices – especially during the down spells – in order to maintain a healthy and consistent bank.

6/ Always remember the BOZ does traditionally suffer from Murphys Law. If he expresses his opinion but states that he won’t be betting on it himself and isn’t making it an official tip, remember that historically these can be his best advices! The 2019 Grand National opinion expressed paid a £2,260-93 tricast for a £60 (£1×60) permed stake (five selections). 

7/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been the BOZ’s mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year he packs in.

“I play cautiously and strategically with bank management also always in mind. The staggered acca is the attempt to win large from small stake. The LIM is the cashbuilder to gradually accumulate profit over a 12 month period.”  Boz 

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