BOZmail 18th AUGUST

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2020 home of the BOZmail

Welcome to the BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet. 

TUESDAY AUGUST 18th  2020 

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 LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Currently stands at : 22.0682 points (+2.0682 points)

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TENNIS & TO FOLLOW HORSE BACK/TRADE STARTING BANK = 8 points

Currently stands at : 15.5237 points (+7.5237 points)

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OCCASIONAL ACCA STARTING BANK = 5 points

Currently stands at : 4.655 points (-0.345 points)

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SPECIAL ROYAL ASCOT fixed odds bets = (-0.554 points)

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Post Lockdown Litmus Test Bozbets = (+0.085 points)

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Local Track Factor Section = (-0.53 points)

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BOZmail 2020 cycle PART ONE(1/2 – 31/5) overall profit  = +4.2876 points

                                      PART TWO(1/6 – 31/1 )  overall profit = +8.2479 points

                                          BOZmail 2020 overall score = +12.5355 points

PART ONE LIM 2020 Strike Rates: Lays: 25/41 = 60.97%  Backs: 9/29 = 31.03%

PART TWO LIM 2020 Strike rates: Lays 42/54 = 77.77%  Backs : 7/24 = 29.16%

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LESS IS MORE:

2-15 FONTWELL

I spent much of my study time on this trying to decide whether the lay on Easyrun de Vassy was too big a price to risk but the more I’ve gone in, the more I think the wise way is to simply take the odds on fav on small.

Much depends on jumping as you’d expect in a Novices Handicap Chase and from the Nicholls and Henderson stables it is predictably hard to split them given the two differing types that personify their yards as they are. Much depends how it goes on the day. Jen’s Boy looks the whippier and was the faster hurdler but didn’t look overly like a chasing natural on Southwell debut and failed to give the winner considerable weight and gets punished a further 4lb for that effort. In opposing him we also have the cover of Friends Don’t Ask who gets a further 10lb for an 11 length beating last time which therefore doesn’t rule him out and he undoubtedly represents the value back in the race. Easyrun de Vassy hasn’t jumped fences under Rules but comes from the Point to Point field and can thus be expected to do better as a chaser than did as a hurdler albeit that LTO hurdle effort was ok in context of weight conceded again. Hurdle times are slower than Hendersons’ but gets 6lb here and is a serious stamina plug – the sort Nicholls has excelled with over the years and if he sets out to ‘do a Denman’ you could see him running Jen’s Boy into the ground if his jumping is sound and Henderson’s fiddles as he did a fair few times LTO.

Fascinating contest in many ways but yet another LIM difficult to be bullish about in the current climate. And the only qualifier on the day once more. I tread warily still playing the odds as much as anything.

Recommendations:

0.2pt LAY on JEN’S BOY (around 1.8 maybe and anything under 2.0 or thereabouts ok. Get the best price you can)

0.05pt BACK on FRIENDS DON’T ASK (around 15.0)

LIM scores for August:

1st :  NO BET

2nd : +0.0886  (+0.0886) Lay @ 1.93 : Back @ 7.0

3rd:   +0.0245  (+0.1131) Lay @ 3.75

4th:   +0.385    (+0.4981) Lays @ 3.75 & 3.3 :Backs @ 15.0 & 3.75

5th:   +0.0671 (+0.5652) Lay @ 2.38 & 14.0 : Backs @ 19.0 & 4.0

6th:    NON RUNNER

7th:    +0.049  (+0.6142) Lay @ 4.4 : Back @ 7.0

8th:    -0.475 (+0.1392) Lay @ 2.5 : Back @ 6.4

9th:    NO BET

10th:  +0.441 (+0.5802) Lay @ 3.75 : Back @ 8.0

11th:  +0.686 (+1.2662) Back @ 6.6

12th:  +0.0392 (+1.3054) Lay @ 3.75 : Back @ 5.9 

13th:   NON RUNNER

14th:   +0.0294 (+1.3348) Lay @ 1.94 : Back @ 2.2

15th:   NO BET

16th:    -0.124  (+1.2108) Lays @ 2.8 & 4.2

17th:   NO BET

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BOZmail 2020 – Horses to follow on the flat:

Muker – Entered for York ( Aug 20)

Ransom

Uncle Jumbo – Entered for York (Aug 20) & Doncaster (Sep 10)

On My Way 

Battleground – Entered for  Curragh (Aug 22&Sep13)

Royal Air Force – Entered in the 2021 Derby (June 5)

Alicestar 

Custard The Dragon

BOZmail 2020 – NH Horses to follow (Part Two):

Check My Pulse 

Balagan 

Ashutor – Entered for Stratford (Aug 19)

Sangha River – Entered for Stratford (Aug 19)

Captain Tom Cat 

Lord Condi 

Saint Sam (FR)

Rubytwo 

Pisgah Pike – Entered for Newton Abbot(Aug 21)

Hiconic

Young Wolf

Sirobbie

Little Jessture – Entered for Stratford (Aug 19)

Soldier of Love 

Lady Bowes 

Captain Zebo

Defi Sacre

Sporting Press

Global Tour – Entered for Stratford (Aug 19)

Samsons Reach

Leoncavallo

Longhouse Sale

Oscar Rose

NH TO FOLLOW HORSES at Uttoxeter on MONDAY:

2-10 Sangha River @ 2/5 – 2nd 

      & Check My Pulse @ 7/1 – 0.1pt BACK – 1st

Backed @ 10.0 : P/L = +0.882pts

I don’t often involve in writing about might have beens or behind the scenes descriptions of what I go through to arrive at my copy each day but I’ve decided to share this one as an insight to simply how tough life is at the moment (not perhaps that you need any telling! I’m aware no-one is having a ball and I take this opportunity to thank those who have shared their year 2020 stories with me. I always like to hear however good or bad. It is part of the service for both of us I always feel and appreciate the bond this builds between us).

I spent all of Sunday night and much of early Monday morning continuing my look into the 2-10 at Uttoxeter – as I often do most days relating the market watch info to what I have already published – and in this case fluctuating madly to and fro about whether to shift the race to an LIM as I became increasingly of the opinion that Sangha River might get beat. LIM was founded on getting strong odds on shots beat.

It is the thing I do best and the more I looked. The more the market didn’t waver. The more I wrestled with whether to post out a 2pt LAY on Sangha River. I wasn’t going to change the stake on Check My Pulse and ultimately as much as I did fancy him, the reason I ultimately shied away from the update this morning after a restless and tossing sleepless night was that he remained my only realistic winner outside of Sangha River.There was no betting cover. Pianissimo had a squeak but needed to prove jumping ability (which he didn’t), Cuillin became a non runner (was getting a stone and half from Sangha as the hope for him) and Le Crunch was likely to need soft ground. There was a doubt for Check my Pulse too in whether he may not ultimately stay the two miles (does) but a balancing doubt for Sangha River too. Could he carry that much weight and win? I doubted it but I felt I had no cover and so the bet stayed as it was. Any other year again, that would have been a strong leap forward with the lay as well as the back coming in. And so a might have been.

But also no regrets because it’s all relative. In the way this year is going, it’s still a strong leap forward. At the moment, the leaps forward are about 40% of what they might normally be expected to be and that because the leap backs are likewise and still happening more often than required. And also it wasn’t an LIM race. I write this before I’ve decided on Tuesday’s LIM race but a good chance that there won’t be one again.

The incidence of LIM races remains severely compromised by what has happened and we have to accept that. I have adjusted downwards and am trying my bestest to carry on positively going forward. I am getting there. I’m sure this result shows it.

The ability to isolate NH horses to follow is not impaired and arguably should be the main focus now. LIM is compromised.No doubts about that. It’s still ahead but 40% is probably an optimistic projection of final tally now. We shall see.

Meanwhile I continue to look for alternative ways to safely operate. We have the tennis coming up. Check My Pulse and Sangha River both stay on the list having run sterling races. 9/1 was readily available on the Menzies horse throughout early market watch so I hope you got that and maybe some of the 10/1 that was around briefly or perhaps the 11/1.12/1 and 14/1 that happened in running. Or you reversed your forecast! That’s hindsight for me! I got none of them. Took my 9/1 early and was busy wrestling with whether or not to post and place the £200 lay on Sangha River.

Even though I got that wrong I did also get it right. There wasn’t any cover. It only needed Check My Pulse to fall and we lost another £80 odd that we didn’t need after I got Little Stevie wrong. The blips in NH are still there. Gonna take me a little while yet it would seem to exorcise them. At least you will have noted that Little Stevie’s success pointed to the confidence in Check My Pulse’s jockey. It’s all intertwined.

All holistic. And we remain going forward like the tortoise. As it said on the tin that we would. And I’ll find us another Muker from somewhere. I promise I will!! 

We made just over four points profit in the first four months of the 2020 cycle including lockdown time of no UK racing. Up over eight points now for this second stretch just two and a half months in. I shall combine those two totals into one soon now to embark on the second phase of the year when we start reinvesting profits. Only do that once confidence in race reading and consistency of results is at premium. Over 40% on the way to that now these past two weeks. Just a question of whether LIM will give us an August boost or not. I’d been very optimistic about these four days of NH in a row and the return of Fontwell to boot. Off now to see if that optimism is realised.

The high incidences again are a serious bummer!

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LIM Monthly Scores:

February: + 1.3496 points

March      : + 1.5866 points

UK RACING LOCKDOWN

April         : – 0.1733 points

May          : – 0.8359 points

UK RACING RESTARTED

June         : + 0.0428 points

July          : + 0.8046 points  (+2.7744points)

The BOZmail golden rules:

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(the boz’s job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a lay price or if a specified low lay tissue price goes on a significant drift. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges. The recommendation is always to secure a price (if possible) when actually placing the lay bet. Your discretion based on personal form study and watching the markets develop also encouraged to ensure you maximise returns.The staking advices are a general rather than rigid dictate – mainly for the less experienced and those not able to spend time watching markets develop and practising the optimum betting time skill. Remember also that a lay price available at a significantly lower level than stated on the sheet offers opportunity to increase lay stake without increasing calculated safe lay liability. This can be a key profit optimising tool in the long term if your form study agrees with that published by The Boz.

5/ Always keep in mind the long term ‘importance of  breaking even’ philosophy and practice. This is very much used by The Boz in his staking advices and is recommended in your betting practices – especially during the down spells – in order to maintain a healthy and consistent bank.

6/ Always remember the BOZ does traditionally suffer from Murphys Law. If he expresses his opinion but states that he won’t be betting on it himself and isn’t making it an official tip, remember that historically these can be his best advices! The 2019 Grand National opinion expressed paid a £2,260-93 tricast for a £60 (£1×60) permed stake (five selections). 

7/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been the BOZ’s mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year he packs in.

“I play cautiously and strategically with bank management always in mind.”  Boz 

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