BOZmail – 18th APRIL

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2019 home of the BOZmail

Welcome to the new BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet.

THURSDAY APRIL 18th 2019

LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Stood at 26.0 points after month 1

Stood at 25.83 points after month 2

Stood at 27.28 points after month 3

Stands at 36.0395 points after month 4

LESS IS MORE: THURSDAY PLAY

2-05 CHELTENHAM

I wasn’t wrong about the guesswork on Wednesday. Would never have been able to predict Fraser Island as an even money fav! That time of year. Early season flat horses making their invisible improvement on the course. Reason for sticking to laying. Educated guesswork involved in that so always a chance of coming right.

And six in a row now to put the month back where it should be. Keen to try and build on that now rest of April.

Did consider Posh Trish for the staggered acca as this step back in class makes her a possible good thing with the step back up in distance also likely to help her back to top form. Got her second bit of black type for us on the first day of this service and franked it later under penalty beating Indefatigable but that form was reversed at the Festival where Poh Trish went off 3/1 for the Mares novice but faded into eighth looking a possible candidate for not being a Cheltenham horse. That form still holds up in the context of this race and with Indefitagable stable not firing and the step up in trip a question mark for her, can still be hopeful of a Posh Trish win giving weight all around. Not enough to be weapons grade selection however.

There is also a dark horse in the race at a price. That is Our Dot’s Baby who has a time figure of interest and hails from the Jeremy Scott stable which is bubbling nicely and had an improving winner on Wednesday.

As I’m writing, Posh Trish has just been declared a non-runner and that changes the dynamic considerably. I had been thinking a double lay on second and third favs The Cull Bank (who is taking the step up in class and could be anything but is now the very short fav) and Indefatigable. Now I’m inclined to keep Indefatigable on my side. Her Cheltenham form is handy.The stake on The Cull Bank could be reduced too because I’d been happy Posh Trish was going to beat her whatever improvement she showed. Now there is more risk involved but at a shorter price so maybe not major readjustment. And that time posted at Newbury by Our Dot’s Baby keeps me interested in her – no longer 14/1 but 9/1 in a five runner race still represents value. She may also be better suited by the quickening ground.

Recommendation:

0.35pt LAY on THE CULL BANK (around 2.4 : not greater than 2.9)

0.15pt BACK on OUR DOT’S BABY (10.0 or greater)

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This month plays so far:

1st: NON RUNNER  

2nd:   +0.355 (+0.355) LAY @ 1.9 : BACK @ 2.6

3rd:     -0.6 (- 0.245) LAY @  2.5 : BACK @ 10.0

4th:     +0.24 (- 0.005) LAY @  3.8

5th:     +0.044(+0.039) LAY @ 3.5 : BACK @ 3.5

6th:     +0.343(+0.382) LAY @ 2.2

7th:     +0.39 (+0.772) LAY @ 2.52 : BACK @ 12.0

8th:     – 0.52 (+0.252) LAYS @ 3.6 & 4.7 : BACK @ 9.2

9th:     – 0.26 (- 0.008) LAY @ 1.8 : BACK @ 8.0

10th:   – 0.276(- 0.284) LAY @ 1.88 : BACK @ 22.0

11th:   – 0.34 (- 0.624) LAY @ 2.2  : BACK @ 10.5

12th:   +0.343 (- 0.281) LAY @ 3.2

13th:   +0.294 (+0.013) LAY @ 3.4

14th:   +0.243 (+0.256) LAY @ 3.2 : BACK @ 7.0

15th:   +0.545 (+0.801) LAY @ 4.0 : BACK @ 4.5

16th:   +0.193 (+0.994) LAY @ 2.86 : BACK @ 6.0

17th:   +0.098 (+1.092) LAY @ 4.0

BLWM LIM strike rates:  LAYS: 86/122 = 70.49% :   BACKS: 19/79 = 24.05%

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STAGGERED ACCA RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 10 points

Stands at 9.15 points.

Staggered acca number 9: (LEG 2)

Will shout as soon as second leg emerges.

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Good Luck with your bets.

BOZ

The BOZmail golden rules:

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(the boz’s job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a lay price or if a specified low lay tissue price goes on a significant drift. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges. As from March 2019 onwards, advised not to take BETFAIR SP prices on lays following some adverse returns therein over the January/February period. The recommendation is always to secure a price (if possible) within the published parameters when actually placing the lay bet. Your discretion based on personal form study also encouraged to ensure you maximise returns.The staking advices are a general rather than rigid dictate – mainly for the less experienced and those not able to spend time watching markets develop and practising the optimum betting time skill.

5/ Always keep in mind the long term ‘importance of  breaking even’ philosophy and practice. This is very much used by The Boz in his staking advices and is recommended in your betting practices – especially during the down spells – in order to maintain a healthy and consistent bank.

6/ Always remember the BOZ does traditionally suffer from Murphys Law. If he expresses his opinion but states that he won’t be betting on it himself and isn’t making it an official tip, remember that historically these can be his best advices! The 2019 Grand National opinion expressed paid a £2,260-93 tricast for a £60 (£1×60) permed stake (five selections).

7/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been the BOZ’s mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year he packs in.

“I play cautiously and strategically with bank management also always in mind. The staggered acca is the attempt to win large from small stake. The LIM is the cashbuilder to gradually accumulate profit over a 12 month period.”  Boz

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