BOZmail – 17th SEPTEMBER

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2019 home of the BOZmail

Welcome to the new BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet. 

TUESDAY SEPTEMBER 17th  2019 

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 LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Stands at 57.0715 points after month 9 (+37.0715 points profit)

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2019 BOZMAIL TENNIS WINNINGS:

Current Total      = +7.5813 points

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THE BOZ’s 2019 TO FOLLOW & TENNIS TRADES P/L:

Current Total      = +12.3567 points

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BOZMAIL 2019 COMBINED PROFIT TOTAL = +57.0095 points

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LESS IS MORE: TUESDAY PLAY

4-30 REDCAR

Well that was an exciting finish and just what the doctor ordered on Monday with the satisfaction of a spot on race read, tremendous odds on our back as they came late for the lay & the sense that last week’s shortlist trial was not in vain. Sizing Platinum was the first nap of the week and only didn’t go staggered acca as I said yesterday because of the presence of Theo who did run a cracker too. Slight regret that I didn’t and that I didn’t back or tip the forecast either. I think if I’d expected to be getting over 13/2 the tissue fav, I may well have done! Happy enough to have done LIM repair work and although it doesn’t feel like it, that’s five winning days from past six and poised to complete the recovery now with a couple more jumps meetings scheduled for this week and a few decent to follow trades for the weekend.

Keeping tight meantime however and almost called a no play day Tuesday with the return to meagre flat fare. Is one race that attracts however so a very small play in that doing nothing to risk giving back Monday’s winnings. That was a hard won day after three and a half weeks of strife and struggle but I’m proud to have not lost my head (so important that is avoided) during that time and stuck with the principles to ensure that recovery was a possibility. Losing spells do happen. How you handle them determines your long term health. The hard work put into the shortlist trial was the key I’d say. Hopefully that will continue to bear fruit for a while now.

Tuesday’s race is a modest one with a seriously modest play recommended. My main premise for getting involved in a novice stakes on the flat, with my new resolution to prioritise the jumps, is that it is all that is on offer and that the form of the Jim Goldie yard does trouble me and has done so for a while since the poor summer shows of Get Out The Gate. Yard is afflicted in some way and although the presence of D.Tudhope here gives hope it also ensures a short price on a horse that has only modest all weather form to his name. Turf debut here and looks like they might be asking odds on! No evidence that he will act on it. Pure guesswork if you are backing it even with stable insight.

Not all that much up against it although Danzena and Critical Voltage could be better than they’ve shown so far whilst the interesting one is Desert Land with a decent stable/jockey combo who drops back in trip which seems a wise move despite breeding suggesting he’ll want further in time. Has stayed on in one finish but looked pedestrian in others over 7 furlongs and needs to get a head in front for confidence and has travelled well early in races so the try back at 6 is a potentially cute move.

Nothing more than that though and an absolute minimum stakes race play on what is likely to be an artificially short Goldie fav.

Recommendation:

0.15pt LAY on CALL ME GINGER (around 2.2 : no greater than 2.5)

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This month plays so far:

1st:    -0.24 (-0.24)  Lay @ 1.4 : Back @ 34.0  

2nd:   -0.25 (-0.49)  Back @ 2.2

3rd:    NO PLAY DAY 

4th:    +0.49 (+0.0) Lay @ 1.9  

5th:    -0.44 (-0.44) Lay @ 1.88    

6th:    -0.19 (-0.63) Lay @ 1.38

7th:    -0.542(-1.172) Lay @ 2.12 : Back @ 9.0

8th:     -0.6 (-1.772) Lay @ 3.0 : Back @ 12.0

9th:     +0.34(-1.432) Lay @ 1.75 : Backs @ 11.0 & 18.0

10th:   -0.483(-1.915) Lay @ 2.38

11th:   +0.095(-1.82) Lay @ 3.6 : Back @ 4.4

12th:   +0.13 (-1.69) Backs @ 4.8 & 4.8

13th:    -0.266(-1.956) Lay @ 1.76

14th:    +0.094(-1.862) Lay @ 4.0 : Back @ 6.6

15th:    +0.245(-1.617) Lay @ 3.7 

16th:    +0.954(-0.663) Lay @ 3.9 : Back @ 7.6

BLWM LIM strike rates:  LAYS: 159/242 = 65.70% :   BACKS: 46/164 = 28.04%

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STAGGERED ACCA RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 10 points

Stands at 10 points. 

Will shout when the new staggered acca first leg emerges.               

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SUMMER NH HORSES TO FOLLOW for TRADING or LIM PURPOSES:

Commodore Barry

Kaizer – Entered at Hamilton (Sep 22)

Caius Marcius – Entered at Newton Abbot (Sep 20)

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HORSES TO FOLLOW ON THE FLAT:

Eightsome Reel 

Raise You – Entered for Ascot (Oct 19)

Maydanny

Roseman – Entered for Ascot (Oct 19)

Waldpfad  – Entered for Ascot (Oct 19)

Miss Celestial – Entered at Curragh (Sep 28)

Deirdre – Entered at Longchamp (Oct 6) & Ascot(Oct 19)

Piedita 

James Watt – Entered for Ayr Bronze Cup(Sep 20) & Gold & Silver Cup (Sep 21)

Lord of the Lodge 

Mum’s Tipple – Entered for  Newbury (Sep 21) & Newmarket (Sep 28) & (Oct 12)

 Good Luck with your bets.

BOZ

The BOZmail golden rules:

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(the boz’s job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a lay price or if a specified low lay tissue price goes on a significant drift. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges. As from March 2019 onwards, advised not to take BETFAIR SP prices on lays following some adverse returns therein over the January/February period. The recommendation is always to secure a price (if possible) within the published parameters when actually placing the lay bet. Your discretion based on personal form study also encouraged to ensure you maximise returns.The staking advices are a general rather than rigid dictate – mainly for the less experienced and those not able to spend time watching markets develop and practising the optimum betting time skill.

5/ Always keep in mind the long term ‘importance of  breaking even’ philosophy and practice. This is very much used by The Boz in his staking advices and is recommended in your betting practices – especially during the down spells – in order to maintain a healthy and consistent bank.

6/ Always remember the BOZ does traditionally suffer from Murphys Law. If he expresses his opinion but states that he won’t be betting on it himself and isn’t making it an official tip, remember that historically these can be his best advices! The 2019 Grand National opinion expressed paid a £2,260-93 tricast for a £60 (£1×60) permed stake (five selections). 

7/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been the BOZ’s mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year he packs in.

“I play cautiously and strategically with bank management also always in mind. The staggered acca is the attempt to win large from small stake. The LIM is the cashbuilder to gradually accumulate profit over a 12 month period.”  Boz 

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