BOZmail 17th SEPTEMBER

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2020 home of the BOZmail

Welcome to the BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet 

THURSDAY SEPTEMBER 17th  2020 

BOZmail 2020 cycle : 2020 overall score = +15.5377 points

*************************************************

 LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Currently stands at : 24.9769 points (+4.9769 points)

*************************************************

TENNIS & TO FOLLOW HORSE BACK/TRADE STARTING BANK = 8 points

Currently stands at : 19.5363 points (+11.5363 points)

*************************************************

OCCASIONAL ACCA STARTING BANK = 5 points

Currently stands at : 5.1635 points (+0.1635 points)

*************************************************

SPECIAL ROYAL ASCOT fixed odds bets = (-0.554 points)

******************************************

Post Lockdown Litmus Test Bozbets = (+0.085 points)

*************************************************

Local Track Factor Section = (-0.68 points)

*************************************************

LESS IS MORE

LIM 2020 Strike rates: Lays 77/109 = 70.64%  Backs : 20/64 = 31.25%

3-30 AYR

Rubytwo has to lose his place on the to follow list again after that. Well done if you got over the 3/1 on your market watch so you at least got value and joined the stable in a right old punt down to evens by the off. Definitely primed and ran for his win that was clearly expected by the yard but simply didn’t jump well enough again in the early parts of the race and bumped into a wind op improver that he ought really to have finished ahead of. That he never really looked likely so to do suggests a perennial nearly horse and I’m prepared to give up on him for that. Had his chance.

You see again why part of me promotes the trade option because profit was easy to make again that way. Betting on them always comes with these sort of frustrations!

Hence my new service for next year being called THE TRADE PAPER! In response to several of you converted now to trading and will put up four or five per day where the trade profit looks a guaranteed outcome. The way of the future methinks.

Meanwhile gambler BOZ does keep trekking for the rest of this year and The BOZmail will also continue on its traditional course next year too but on a downscaled version just for those devotees who have followed it loyally for a long time now.

And flat racing will come back into it gradually I think. Certainly the current situation is that flat racing is now at offering several LIM qualifiers per day to choose from where NH racing is not. That may just be September talking. We shall have to see whether large fields in NH racing becomes the new norm once the winter really kicks in. With reduced fixtures and opportunity and interest, it would seem a possibility.

So for now, The BOZmail tentatively goes back to having a go at LIM flat opportunities to see how we go. You don’t have to follow if you still don’t trust what you are seeing and I will certainly be ducking out again if that is how it goes. Neither am I going back in at risky stake levels. Decidedly modest. But I have been scanning the possibilities for a while again now each day and must say I do fancy a go at this one at Ayr simply because the market does look top heavy.

Wondrous Words did win well LTO and travels a long way from Newmarket under his nine pound penalty – five of which is offset by the excellent claimer Ray Dawson – and you can see why they are posting at odds on. That doesn’t mean it’s a sure winner however as we saw with the market on Rubytwo on Wednesday and there are some value encouragements in this market to suggest he’s a fav worth taking on. First up the race he won at Redcar might well have been a micky mouse contest and the second has been out since and got made mincemeat of. Hardly a form boost. Time looks ok but that race might easily have been a flatterer and thus a nine pound rise is quite harsh. Second fav Salsada has a smaller penalty to carry but I look at the stables aspect and last year’s winner of the race sends Sootability posted at 14/1 whilst the 2018 winner of the race – Sarvi – is posted at 12/1 and finally back down at a mark he can be expected to win at again.He ran in it last year off a much higher mark and finished a decent fifth after having been checked in running. It is a race the stable definitely like to win. Jim Goldie also sends Sister Midnight and posts his ace jockey Kevin Stott on that and I take the hint that Mister Goldie is quite keen to win this race again. On form I take Sarvi over Sister Midnight and the jockey booking could be a deflector but all in all, I’d say there’s a reasonable amount with which to take on the price of Wondrous Words.

Let’s see whether I’ll be eating them and heading back to flat race abstainence after this modestly staked effort!

Recommendation:

0.15pt LAY on WONDROUS WORDS (around 2.0 or shorter if you can get)

0.05pt BACK on SARVI (around 13.0 or bigger)

LIM SCORES FOR SEPTEMBER:

1st:  +0.196  (+0.196) Lay @ 3.55

2nd: NO BET

3rd:  -0.345  (-0.149) Lay @ 3.3

4th: NO BET

5th: NO BET

6th:  +0.1764 (+0.0274) Lay @ 1.84

7th: NO BET

8th:  -0.1       (-0.0726) Back @ 12.0

9th:  +0.3234 (+0.2508) Back @ 3.2

10th: NO BET

11th: NO BET

12th: -0.465 (-0.2142) Lay @ 2.86

13th: NO BET

14th: NO BET

15th: +0.4441 (+0.2299) Lay @ 2.2 : Back @ 3.45

16th: NO BET

******************************************************************        

BOZmail 2020 – Horses to follow on the flat:

Muker 

Ransom

Battleground – Entered for Newmarket (Sep26) & (Oct 10)

Royal Air Force – Entered in the 2021 Derby (June 5)

Alicestar

Custard The Dragon 

BOZmail 2020 – NH Horses to follow (Part Two):

Check My Pulse 

Balagan 

Sangha River 

Captain Tom Cat 

Saint Sam (FR)

Pisgah Pike 

Hiconic 

Young Wolf 

Sirobbie 

Little Jessture 

Soldier of Love 

Lady Bowes(soft) 

Captain Zebo

Defi Sacre

Sporting Press 

Samsons Reach 

Leoncavallo – Entered in the Cesarewitch (Oct 10)

Longhouse Sale 

Oscar Rose 

She’s a Rocca(heavy)

Charm Offensive

Timetoroe(heavy)

Baby Jane

Caius Marcius

Calum Gilhooly

The Butcher Said

Leapaway

Return Ticket

NH TO FOLLOW on WEDNESDAY:

4-10 KELSO – RUBYTWO @ 9/4 – 0.15pt BACK – 2nd : P/L = -0.15pts

**********************************************************************************

LIM Monthly Scores:

February: + 1.3496 points

March      : + 1.5866 points

UK RACING LOCKDOWN

April         : – 0.1733 points

May          : – 0.8359 points

UK RACING RESTARTED

June         : + 0.0428 points

July          : + 0.8046 points  

August    :  +1.9726 points   (+4.747 points)

***************************************************************************

The BOZmail golden rules:

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(the boz’s job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a lay price or if a specified low lay tissue price goes on a significant drift. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges. The recommendation is always to secure a price (if possible) when actually placing the lay bet. Your discretion based on personal form study and watching the markets develop also encouraged to ensure you maximise returns.The staking advices are a general rather than rigid dictate – mainly for the less experienced and those not able to spend time watching markets develop and practising the optimum betting time skill. Remember also that a lay price available at a significantly lower level than stated on the sheet offers opportunity to increase lay stake without increasing calculated safe lay liability. This can be a key profit optimising tool in the long term if your form study agrees with that published by The Boz.

5/ Always keep in mind the long term ‘importance of  breaking even’ philosophy and practice. This is very much used by The Boz in his staking advices and is recommended in your betting practices – especially during the down spells – in order to maintain a healthy and consistent bank.

6/ Always remember the BOZ does traditionally suffer from Murphys Law. If he expresses his opinion but states that he won’t be betting on it himself and isn’t making it an official tip, remember that historically these can be his best advices! The 2019 Grand National opinion expressed paid a £2,260-93 tricast for a £60 (£1×60) permed stake (five selections). 

7/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been the BOZ’s mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year he packs in.

“I play cautiously and strategically with bank management always in mind.”  Boz 

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *