BOZmail – 17th OCTOBER

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2019 home of the BOZmail

Welcome to the new BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet. 

THURSDAY OCTOBER 17th  2019 

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 LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Stands at 57.666 points after month 9 (+37.666 points profit)

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2019 BOZMAIL TENNIS WINNINGS:

Current Total      = +7.5813 points

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THE BOZ’s 2019 TO FOLLOW & TENNIS TRADES P/L:

Current Total      = +13.2887 points

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BOZMAIL 2019 COMBINED PROFIT TOTAL = +58.536 points

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LESS IS MORE: THURSDAY PLAY

4-00 CARLISLE &

4-55 WINCANTON

Not the result we needed on Wednesday which takes us back to the start of the month. I’m more annoyed about my lack of patience in the four days before and the loss of the recovery buffer. Return Ticket ran ok whilst not jumping great and obviously far from wound up hence the price drift all day. But at three out with the class two both jumping poorly and the one he ought to beat covered, there was briefly a moment when Henry rousted him for a winning run. Little response and maybe the step up in distance won’t be required. Some encouragement in his getting safely round beating those he should. Will have his day.

And no taking it away from Sam Spinner who showed his class as a stayer and recovered from a proper horlicks early and looking outpaced 4 out. Skelton’s jumped worst of the three and thus we came unstuck but annoying for me again that it was an oppose the fav race as in the US the other night and the fav got stuffed in each. By reading early, we were on the wrong lay again. Not always great tipping so early. But if you saw that, hedging on Sam Spinner wasn’t hard. I didn’t take 2.8 but I did take some 2.4 when they started the run back in on him late. Sheet settled as a loser though. But then thought he was beat 4 out. Such is racing. A race we learned from. None of the runners make to follow. A result we didn’t need. And Thursday is a tough day again. Couldn’t settle on any one race so I’m playing the TWISTY version again. Split between two races. A lay in one to pay for a speculative punt in another. Worked ok for us last time if I remember right.

Memory not a strong point though these days!

The speculative punt is in the bumper at Carlisle at 4-00. Moffat has a classy one from his classy owners and breeders who bought in Highland Lodge to win the Bechers and Bon Chic to win at 33/1 at Aintree. 50/1 tomorrow but not a 50/1 shot because ran encouragingly on debut. Up with the pace for three quarters of the race and then running on again at the end after having become outpaced up the hill. That after badly misbehaving on way to start. Wasted vital energy doing that. If that taught her something, the Lady should run better this time. Will need to. Hot race again hence the price. The Boz has a fiver to risk after a measly five days and the two reasons for optimism are 1/ has the high action needed for soft ground. The improvement needed may well come from that. 2/ Nicky Richards’ top jock has been booked. They ain’t running for the sake of it. Having missed the Weatherby paddock watch because of awful weather on Wednesday, I’ll be at Carlisle tomorrow for this. Will be looking out for the madamish behaviour and placing most of my fiver after I’ve seen her behave proper!!

The lay is not a fav this time so abort it if Thunderstruck becomes fav!! Enrilo is a hot bumper horse and Nicholls will have a line so no laying that. Outstrips Thunderstruck’s bumper form who was beaten by a Nicholls horse LTO. Archimento has the experience and might act as cover winner carrying penalty if the other two can’t jump.

Largely guesswork day again though. Just going through a spell of it as happens this time of year. So very modest stakes after yesterday’s second bullish bet of the month going down. Bank management and caution time.

Recommendation:

0.15pt LAY on THUNDERSTRUCK (around 4.0 : no greater than 4.4) 

0.05pt BACK on  LADY BOWES (around 51.0 or better)

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BLWM LIM strike rates:  LAYS: 172/264 = 65.15% :   BACKS: 49/179 = 27.37%

This month’s scores so far:

1st:    -0.838 (-0.838) Lay @ 2.68 : Back @ 3.3

2nd:   -0.216 (-1.054) Lay @ 2.08

3rd:    +0.245(-0.809) Lay @ 1.66

4th:    +0.144(-0.665) Lay @ 2.6 : Back @ 12.0

5th:    +0.294 (-0.371) Lay @2.62

6th:    +0.145 (-0.226) Lay @ 4.09 : Back @ 5.0

7th:    -0.408 (-0.634) Lay @ 1.88 : Back @ 13.0

8th:    +0.558(-0.076) Lay @ 2.8 : Back @ 2.76

9th:    +0.196(+0.12) Lay @ 3.75

10th:  +0.49 (+0.61) Lay @ 1.76

11th:  +0.343(+0.953) Lay @ 3.0

12th:  -0.2   (+0.753) Back @ 1.99

13th:  RACING ABANDONED-WATERLOGGING

14th:  -0.64 (+0.113) Lay @ 2.8 : Back @ 32.0

15th:  -0.1   (+0.013) Back @ 6.0

16th:  -0.895 (-0.882) Lay @ 1.86 : Back @ 17.0

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STAGGERED ACCA RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 10 points

Stands at 10.41 points. 

Will shout as soon as third leg emerges.

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WINTER NH HORSES TO FOLLOW for TRADING or LIM PURPOSES:

La Bague au Roi

Unwin VC

Commodore Barry

Kaizer 

Raya Time

Tea Clipper

Nube Negra

Ballymoy

Verdana Blue

Maire Banrigh

Wenceslaus

Tokaramore 

Flic Ou Voyou

Thyme Hill

Nordano

Indian Opera

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WINTER ALL WEATHER HORSES TO FOLLOW ON THE FLAT:

The Grey Goat

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HORSES TO FOLLOW ON THE FLAT:

Raise You – Entered for Ascot (Oct 19)

Roseman – Entered for Ascot (Oct 19)

Waldpfad  – Entered for Ascot (Oct 19)

Deirdre – Entered at Ascot(Oct 19)

 Good Luck with your bets.

BOZ

The BOZmail golden rules:

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(the boz’s job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a lay price or if a specified low lay tissue price goes on a significant drift. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges. As from March 2019 onwards, advised not to take BETFAIR SP prices on lays following some adverse returns therein over the January/February period. The recommendation is always to secure a price (if possible) within the published parameters when actually placing the lay bet. Your discretion based on personal form study also encouraged to ensure you maximise returns.The staking advices are a general rather than rigid dictate – mainly for the less experienced and those not able to spend time watching markets develop and practising the optimum betting time skill.

5/ Always keep in mind the long term ‘importance of  breaking even’ philosophy and practice. This is very much used by The Boz in his staking advices and is recommended in your betting practices – especially during the down spells – in order to maintain a healthy and consistent bank.

6/ Always remember the BOZ does traditionally suffer from Murphys Law. If he expresses his opinion but states that he won’t be betting on it himself and isn’t making it an official tip, remember that historically these can be his best advices! The 2019 Grand National opinion expressed paid a £2,260-93 tricast for a £60 (£1×60) permed stake (five selections). 

7/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been the BOZ’s mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year he packs in.

“I play cautiously and strategically with bank management also always in mind. The staggered acca is the attempt to win large from small stake. The LIM is the cashbuilder to gradually accumulate profit over a 12 month period.”  Boz 

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