BOZmail 17th OCTOBER

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2020 home of the BOZmail

Welcome to the BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet 

SATURDAY OCTOBER 17th  2020 

BOZmail 2020 cycle : 2020 overall score = +32.2842 points

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 LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Currently stands at : 26.3149 points (+6.3149 points)

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TENNIS & TO FOLLOW HORSE BACK/TRADE STARTING BANK = 8 points

Currently stands at : 35.1548 points (+27.1548 points)

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OCCASIONAL ACCA STARTING BANK = 5 points

Currently stands at : 4.9635 points (-0.0365 points)

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SPECIAL ROYAL ASCOT fixed odds bets = (-0.554 points)

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Post Lockdown Litmus Test Bozbets = (+0.085 points)

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Local Track Factor Section = (-0.68 points)

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LESS IS MORE

LIM 2020 Strike rates: Lays 90/126 = 71.42%  Backs : 24/77 = 31.16%

2-11 MARKET RASEN

Young Wolf showed the difficulties of carrying weight penalty yesterday.One bad jump and you’re buggered! Classic LIM that with all the rules being upheld. Be wary of chasing debutantes and those carrying a penalty and always consider backing the rag if he has a chance. Sadly I didn’t give him much of one! Two out of three correct for me!

Will try and learn from that as penalty carriers at the head again here and both pretty equally matched on my figures making Alpha Carinae the value lay. Is second time after wind op but that benefit already used up I’d say and vulnerable here to all three receiving weight. Aggy With It the obvious one with course form and from a stable in scorching form on Friday. I do also give a shout however at a price to Bourbon Beauty if he jumps well on debut. Also from stable in cracking form. Serenisa not without talent if jumping so good LIM cover for taking on the fav.

Muker still to run as I write. Got some 6/1. Off to watch and roar the Newcastle dumper home!

Recommendation:

0.25pt LAY on ALPHA CARINAE (around 2.3)

0.1pt BACK on AGGY WITH IT (around 3.3)

0.05pt BACK on BOURBON BEAUTY (around 8.0)

LIM SCORES FOR OCTOBER:

1st: NO BET

2nd: +0.196  (+0.196) Lay @ 4.1

3rd:  -0.18     (+0.016) Lay @ 2.2

4th:  +0.147  (+0.163) Lay @ 4.4

5th: NO BET

6th: NO BET

7th:  -0.54     (-0.377) Lay @ 3.2 : Back @ 16.5

8th:  -0.392  (-0.769) Lay @ 2.12

9th: +0.441  (-0.328) Lay @ 1.25 : Back @ 8.0

10th: -0.1     (-0.428) Back @ 2.4

11th: +0.294 (-0.134) Lay @ 1.94 : Back @ 4.0

12th: NO BET

13th: +0.1558 (+0.0218) Back @ 2.59

14th: +0.098   (+0.1198) Lay @ 2.4

15th:  +0.245  (+0.3648) Lay @ 2.7 (averaged and after 22% Rule 4 deduction)

16th:  +0.196  (+0.5608) Lay @ 2.7

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BOZmail 2020 – Horses to follow on the flat:

Muker – Entered @ Dundalk (Oct 16)

Ransom

Battleground – Entered for Doncaster (Oct 24)

Royal Air Force – Entered in the 2021 Derby (June 5)

Plainchant(FR) – WON @ Chantilly (Oct 10) – Evens

Aramhes(FR)

TO FOLLOW/TRADE horse on Friday at Dundalk:

7-45 – MUKER @ 13/2 – 0.25pt BACK (Get the best price that you can)

Bit of a bolt from the blue to see Muker entered for a Listed Sprint on the all weather in Ireland after all this time. Missed Plainchant winning in France the other day (well done if you spotted it) but don’t intend to miss this boy. He more than anyone signifies the 2020 BOZmail survival with his run at Royal Ascot and owes me not a bean. I’ve run a rule over the race and the fact he comes and has already proved on all weather are in his favour. The Ascot form and subsequent win boost his chance which leaves it just down to times. How does he compare on those? Reasonably to be considered in the top six but the key would be the weight for age he gets. As a two year old, he gets over a stone off most and 8lb off other British raider and potential main danger Rocket Action. The other thing for me is that back form has been boosted. Tactical who beat him in the Windsor Castle has won a Group 2 since. Both second and third he beat at York have gone on and won and he was the one giving weight all round that day. He’s smart. Two year old won this race last year but big field so I find it hard to be bullish with an unknown O’Brien horse also in the line up. Muker is just a to follow for life now and without any kind of confident form study back up, I just fancy him to run a big race. 0.25pt BACK for me. I may have a last furlong hedge below 2.0 if I get chance.He is a front runner so that bodes well.

But in general, I back to win! 

BOZmail 2020 – NH Horses to follow (Part Two):

Straw Fan Jack

McFabulous

Flic Ou Voyou 

Soaring Glory

Israel Champ

Bravemansgame

Sangha River -Entered @ Kempton (Oct 18)

Captain Tom Cat 

Saint Sam (FR)

Pisgah Pike – Entered @ Kempton (Oct 18) & Plumpton (Oct 19)

Young Wolf 

Sirobbie      

Soldier of Love 

Lady Bowes(soft) 

Captain Zebo

Defi Sacre

Leoncavallo 

Oscar Rose 

She’s a Rocca(heavy) 

Charm Offensive

Timetoroe(heavy)

Baby Jane

Caius Marcius 

Calum Gilhooly 

The Butcher Said

Leapaway  Entered @ Kempton (Oct 18)

Return Ticket(flat track) 

Redford Road

Not That Fuisse(good/good to soft)

Carroll’s Milan

Prettylittlething – Entered @ Hereford (Oct 21)

Wenceslaus

Boothill

Al Dancer

Onemorefortheroad

Stormy Ireland

Eldorado Allen

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LIM Monthly Scores:

February: + 1.3496 points

March      : + 1.5866 points

UK RACING LOCKDOWN

April         : – 0.1733 points

May          : – 0.8359 points

UK RACING RESTARTED

June         : + 0.0428 points

July          : + 0.8046 points  

August    :  +1.9726 points   (+4.747 points)

September : +1.0071 points (+5.7541 points)

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The BOZmail golden rules:

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(the boz’s job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a lay price or if a specified low lay tissue price goes on a significant drift. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges. The recommendation is always to secure a price (if possible) when actually placing the lay bet. Your discretion based on personal form study and watching the markets develop also encouraged to ensure you maximise returns.The staking advices are a general rather than rigid dictate – mainly for the less experienced and those not able to spend time watching markets develop and practising the optimum betting time skill. Remember also that a lay price available at a significantly lower level than stated on the sheet offers opportunity to increase lay stake without increasing calculated safe lay liability. This can be a key profit optimising tool in the long term if your form study agrees with that published by The Boz.

5/ Always keep in mind the long term ‘importance of  breaking even’ philosophy and practice. This is very much used by The Boz in his staking advices and is recommended in your betting practices – especially during the down spells – in order to maintain a healthy and consistent bank.

6/ Always remember the BOZ does traditionally suffer from Murphys Law. If he expresses his opinion but states that he won’t be betting on it himself and isn’t making it an official tip, remember that historically these can be his best advices! The 2019 Grand National opinion expressed paid a £2,260-93 tricast for a £60 (£1×60) permed stake (five selections). 

7/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been the BOZ’s mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year he packs in.

“I play cautiously and strategically with bank management always in mind.”  Boz 

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