BOZmail – 17th NOVEMBER

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2019 home of the BOZmail

Welcome to the new BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet. 

SUNDAY NOVEMBER 17th  2019 

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 LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Stands at 60.481 points after month 11 (+40.481 points profit)

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2019 BOZMAIL TENNIS WINNINGS:

Current Total      = +7.5813 points

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THE BOZ’s 2019 TO FOLLOW & TENNIS TRADES P/L:

Current Total      = +14.3557 points

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BOZMAIL 2019 COMBINED PROFIT TOTAL = +62.418 points

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LESS IS MORE: SUNDAY PLAY

1-50 CHELTENHAM

The market says there are three negatives in the Al Dancer v Getaway Trump rematch.1/ The obvious three pound weight he’s got to give. 2/The fact that Getaway Trump will come on for the run and 3/ Al Dancer goes without his hood this time which has been a negative in the past over hurdles.

With that in mind, Skybet offer 15/8 Al Dancer and I for one am on! A value price indeed with the form in the book and the likelihood of the other two not being quite in same class.

I was very impressed with Al Dancer over fences. Looked a real Twisty Cheltenham speciality act. I was also underwhelmed with Getaway Trump who is a typical Nicholls stand upright type who jumped neatly early in the race and came upsides easy enough so that you could indeed say he’ll improve for the run. Of course he will but so indeed will Al Dancer who was sketchy early and only really came into his own when asked for his effort. He flew the last two fences under an inspired STD ride whereas Getaway Trump was careful and a bit awkward jumping Cheltenham fences at pace which is not really what you want to see. Most crucially though, Getaway Trump didn’t look to me like he came up the hill. Skelton’s came past him in full flight and Caius Marcius was also close by. Yes, Getaway Trump probably blew up but was well beaten to my eye with a fair bit needed to turn the form. He may get a more positive front running ride this time perhaps and that might suit but still his jumping of the last three, so crucial at Cheltenham, would worry me at short odds and if STD – who is a much better jockey for these kind of races than he used to be when on Nicholls’ horses – flies the last again at full tilt, I’d fancy him to pick the Nicholls horse up on the hill. Just something about their respective actions. One made for Cheltenham. The other less so. Getaway Trump may be vulnerable to the De Bromhead horse on the run in as well. The Irish horse is a stayer thought quick enough to go in this no doubt with the hill in mind. Al Dancer however for me. Soft ground would also suit him better it. The hood being off the only small niggle but I trust Nigel knows what’s what on that one. You don’t really want to see a hood on a top chaser and he’s won without it before and indeed lost with it on. Whatever caused them to use it in the first place is hopefully something they think Al Dancer has grown out of.

Recommendations:

0.35pt LAY on GETAWAY TRUMP (around 2.5 or shorter : no greater than 2.8)

0.2pt BACK on AL DANCER (2.87 or better)

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Quite a few nice races at Fontwell on Sunday and the specialist shortlist with additional Boz notes has already been sent to those signed up for the free trial. 

Newcomers not aware of that but wanting to be involved can email garyboswell@hotmail.com to get included until the end of 2019.

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Quite a hum dinger for our Saturday LIM and if I’m not mistaken, 1.01 was matched on Fingerontheswitch. Well done if you laid at that! My internet connection went through a wobble so I had to settle for my pre race bets which was ok. The result went the other way a minute later at Cheltenham as Legends Ryde came close to giving the Lady Bowes form a massive boost looking the winner turning in. Just got outstayed up the hill but an honourable second which still means good things for Lady Bowes fans. I have just accepted the job as secretary of the Lady Bowes fan club by the way and have had some T-shirts with ‘Lady Bowes for the 2024 Grand National’ emblazoned on them printed if you are looking for suitable Xmas pressies for loved ones! Usual email address! Proceeds to IJF.

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BLWM LIM strike rates:  LAYS: 195/293 = 66.55% :   BACKS: 53/194 = 27.31%

This month’s scores so far:

1st:    +0.343 (+0.343) Lay @ 2.6

2nd:   +0.245 (+0.588) Lay @ 2.62

3rd:    +0.098 (+0.656) Lay @ 4.2

4th:    NO PLAY DAY

5th:    +0.096 (+0.752) Lay @4.4 : Back @ 3.85

6th:    +0.147 (+0.899) Lay @ 1.75

7th:    +0.196 (+1.095) Lay @ 4.2

8th:    +0.343 (+1.438) Lay @ 2.1

9th:    -0.475 (+0.963) Lay @ 2.9

10th:  -0.3425(+0.6205) Lay @ 1.97 : Back @ 5.0

11th:  +0.144 (+0.7645) Lay @ 2.6 : Back @ 5.0

12th:  +0.196 (+0.9605) Lay @ 3.85

13th:  +0.596 +(1.5565) Lay @ 2.48 : Back @ 5.0

14th:  +0.147 (+1.7035) Lay @ 3.0

15th:   +0.095 (+1.7985) Lay @ 3.2 : Back @ 14.5

16th:   +0.245 (+2.0435) Lay @ 2.6

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STAGGERED ACCA RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 10 points

Stands at 9.75 points. 

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WINTER NH HORSES TO FOLLOW for TRADING or LIM PURPOSES:

Al Dancer 

La Bague au Roi – Entered for the King George & The Gold Cup!

Unwin VC 

Kaizer 

Tea Clipper 

Nube Negra 

Black Op – Entered for Stayers Hurdle (Mar 12)

Verdana Blue – Entered for Champion Hurdle

Maire Banrigh 

Wenceslaus 

Tokaramore 

Flic Ou Voyou 

Thyme Hill 

Nordano 

Indian Opera

Lady Bowes 

Floressa 

Vinndication –Entered for King George & Gold Cup!

Lostintranslation – Entered for Haydock (Nov 23),King George,Ryanair & Gold Cup

Cat Tiger – Entered for Haydock (Nov 23)

Welsh Saint 

Normandy Soldier

Ribble Valley

Kid Commando

Up The Straight

Flaming Charmer

Jatiluwih

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HORSES TO FOLLOW/TRADE AT CHELTENHAM on SATURDAY:

12-05 THYME HILL @ 11/8 – WON

12-40 – NORDANO @ 8/1 – 0.1pt BACK to LAY – 4th

(Backed @ 11.0 : hedged in running @ 7.0) P/L on the day = 0

Apologies for missing Thyme Hill off the sheet yesterday. Just testing whether you read this list for yourselves or not!! But in truth, I hadn’t noticed that the race had been moved lock,stock and barrel from Friday’s abandoned card where I still had Thyme Hill down as a non runner. Ran well again and stays on the list. Jumps best when the pace is on which is what you want at Cheltenham. Stays and has the ideal pilot who got after him when he bundled his landing after the last but the rousting got him back rolling pretty quick and he certainly came up the Cheltenham hill. Number one on the list for the festival so far. Was a short priced fav so wouldn’t have been much of a one to trade on anyways but well done if you spotted he was running and had a few quid on. Always pays to have the to follow list buzzed into a computer reminder programme to alert you when they are entered. The Boz still does his by hand which is how it got missed!

PLANS for the 2020 BOZmail:

The main development for next year is an annual subscription service only which will become available for purchase from December 1st 2019 and will be limited to first 150 purchasers. Membership will be closed when that number is reached or on January 31st 2020. Activity will begin on 1st February 2020.

The 2020 service will not be covering horseracing during January 2020 nor September 2020 as statistics have shown these to be negative months for LIM.

The 2020 BOZmail cycle will thus be a 10 month cycle completing on December 31st 2020.

The reason for annual subscription membership only is so that all members will be at same bank management level throughout. This enables The Boz to practice greater profit reinvestment in his staking levels (thus increasing overall profitability). Something that has not been possible in the 2019 cycle where new members were joining all the time and members were thus at varying bank levels throughout – leading The Boz to be more cautious in his staking levels than was ideal.

Membership of the 2020 BOZmail is recommended for those with some experience of how the service works although new members will be admitted up to the subscription closing date on January 31st 2020 if places are still available. First chance to purchase subscription however will be made to current members only. The service will only be advertised to non members after December 31st 2019 if some places are still available. The capping of numbers for the service is hopefully self explanatory to those who have experience of the service.

There will be some changes to content although the main focus will remain on the daily LIM service and the to follow trading advices in UK horse racing. Tennis coverage of the women’s Grand Slams will be limited to Wimbledon and the French Open only in 2020. There will be ad hoc accumulator advices throughout the cycle as they arise. The staggered acca approach practised in 2019 however will be discontinued. Simply hasn’t been as successful as hoped.

Never afraid to cull its dead wood is the BOZmail!

There are plans to introduce a paddock watching element to the service and to organise various days at the races during the year for those interested in advancing paddock watching skills and using these as an enhancement to their punting profitability generally. Details of these days will be available to BOZmail annual subscriber members only and will come at no extra charge (other than responsibility for paying own course entrance fee). The Boz is also publishing a guide to UK paddock watching in 2020 and will thus be in attendance at all UK racecourses at some point during the year collecting material for the book.

If you have any questions or queries about 2020 BOZmail annual membership at this stage, please feel free to contact The BOZ direct as always via email (garyboswell@hotmail.com). TGH Trading will be in touch in the coming weeks with personal invites to all current members to purchase first chance 2020 membership detailing cost etc. Opening date for purchasing 2020 membership will be December 1st 2019. First come,first served. 

With thanks to all who have supported the service in 2019 and here’s to a highly profitable and enjoyable 2020!

Cheers

THE BOZ

 Good Luck with your bets.

BOZ

The BOZmail golden rules:

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(the boz’s job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a lay price or if a specified low lay tissue price goes on a significant drift. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges. As from March 2019 onwards, advised not to take BETFAIR SP prices on lays following some adverse returns therein over the January/February period. The recommendation is always to secure a price (if possible) within the published parameters when actually placing the lay bet. Your discretion based on personal form study also encouraged to ensure you maximise returns.The staking advices are a general rather than rigid dictate – mainly for the less experienced and those not able to spend time watching markets develop and practising the optimum betting time skill.

5/ Always keep in mind the long term ‘importance of  breaking even’ philosophy and practice. This is very much used by The Boz in his staking advices and is recommended in your betting practices – especially during the down spells – in order to maintain a healthy and consistent bank.

6/ Always remember the BOZ does traditionally suffer from Murphys Law. If he expresses his opinion but states that he won’t be betting on it himself and isn’t making it an official tip, remember that historically these can be his best advices! The 2019 Grand National opinion expressed paid a £2,260-93 tricast for a £60 (£1×60) permed stake (five selections). 

7/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been the BOZ’s mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year he packs in.

“I play cautiously and strategically with bank management also always in mind. The staggered acca is the attempt to win large from small stake. The LIM is the cashbuilder to gradually accumulate profit over a 12 month period.”  Boz 

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