BOZmail – 17th MAY

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2019 home of the BOZmail

Welcome to the new BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet.

FRIDAY MAY 17th 2019

LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Stood at 26.0 points after month 1

Stood at 25.83 points after month 2

Stood at 27.28 points after month 3

Stood at 36.0395 points after month 4

Stands at 40.8925 points after month 5

LESS IS MORE: FRIDAY PLAY

7-45 AINTREE

Big day it proved to be on Thursday with The Boz’s love affair with Fontwell coming once more to the rescue. I thought Murphy’s was coming to chin us after we got the front two beat and the rag looked to be going the best over the last. The jockey factor then kicked in however and we have a chance to rescue the month of May after all! The market was also a big assist on this one as they poured on Steeles Terrace late ensuring some great value on old Witness.

Friday sees a tremendously competitive event for a six runner Handicap Chase at Aintree so ideal LIM. All six have a chance and as often with me,the one carrying a penalty is the least fancied. I did the race read before I saw the tissue but am happy enough with the price on Van Gogh du Granit to stick to that choice of lay. Saw a well fancied Pipe horse capitulate at Perth today which adds fuel to the confidence.

Recommendation:

0.2pt LAY on VAN GOGH DU GRANIT (around 4.5 ; no greater than 4.8)

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This month plays so far:

1st:   -0.455 (-0.455) LAY @ 2.82

2nd:  -0.3    (-0.755) LAY @ 1.6

3rd:   -0.628 (-1.383) LAY @ 2.76 : BACK @ 34.0

4th:   -0.8    (-2.183) LAY @ 3.4 : BACK @ 7.0

5th:   +0.095 (-2.088) LAY @ 1.95 : BACK @ 9.0

6th:   -0.3    (-2.388) LAY @ 2.2

7th:   +0.095 (-2.293) LAY @ 1.94 : BACK @ 5.1

8th:   +0.19  (-2.103) BACK @ 1.95

9th:   -0.825  (-2.928) LAY @ 3.25 : BACK @ 8.4

10th: NO PLAY DAY

11th:  +0.195 (-2.733) LAY @ 2.92

12th:  -0.24  (-2.973) LAY @ 1.6

13th:  +0.52 (-2.453) BACK @ 6.2

14th:   -0.25 (-2.703) LAYS @ 3.5 & 3.9 : BACK @ 4.5

15th:   +0.196(-2.507) LAY @ 4.0

16th:   +0.996 (-1.511) Lay @ 2.62 : BACK @ 9.0

BLWM LIM strike rates:  LAYS: 101/147 = 68.70% :   BACKS: 25/95 = 26.31%

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SUMMER NH HORSES TO FOLLOW for TRADING or LIM PURPOSES:

Get out the Gate

Shoal Bay

Commodore Barry

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HORSES TO FOLLOW ON THE FLAT:

King of Comedy – Entered for St James Palace,Ascot (June 18)

Land of Legends- Entered for Newmarket (May 17) & the King Edward,Ascot (June 21)

Edaraat – Entered for Newmarket (May 17)

Moonlight Spirit – Entered for the King Edward,Ascot (June 21)

Eightsome Reel – Entered for Newmarket (May 18)

Dee Ex Bee – Entered for Epsom (May 31) & Ascot Gold Cup (June 20)

Sir Dragonet- Entered for King Edward (June 21) & Eclipse (July 6)

TO FOLLOW HORSES RUNNING FRIDAY:

4-15 NEWMARKET – LAND OF LEGENDS @ 15/8

                                   EDARAAT @ 8/1

Two back to lay trades for the Boz to show a profit. Very difficult race to be bullish about. Will take a trading profit on the race.

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STAGGERED ACCA RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 10 points

Stands at 11.3966 points.

Staggered acca number 10: (LEG 4)

2-35 PERTH – LAY on JERSEY BEAN at around 2.5 – WON

I think we have a really serious one to follow in Get Out The Gate. Beat a decent one here and totally trounced him giving weight albeit that Jersey Bean jumped stickily early on. Trounced Teddy Tee too and jumped so professionally for a Novice. Some good prizes to be won with him. That result also boosts the form of Commodore Barry who should also make our To Follow list now for the summer months.

Stake of 1.3966 points ready for next leg and a proper staggered acca building now.

Will shout when next leg emerges.

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Good Luck with your bets.

BOZ

The BOZmail golden rules:

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(the boz’s job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a lay price or if a specified low lay tissue price goes on a significant drift. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges. As from March 2019 onwards, advised not to take BETFAIR SP prices on lays following some adverse returns therein over the January/February period. The recommendation is always to secure a price (if possible) within the published parameters when actually placing the lay bet. Your discretion based on personal form study also encouraged to ensure you maximise returns.The staking advices are a general rather than rigid dictate – mainly for the less experienced and those not able to spend time watching markets develop and practising the optimum betting time skill.

5/ Always keep in mind the long term ‘importance of  breaking even’ philosophy and practice. This is very much used by The Boz in his staking advices and is recommended in your betting practices – especially during the down spells – in order to maintain a healthy and consistent bank.

6/ Always remember the BOZ does traditionally suffer from Murphys Law. If he expresses his opinion but states that he won’t be betting on it himself and isn’t making it an official tip, remember that historically these can be his best advices! The 2019 Grand National opinion expressed paid a £2,260-93 tricast for a £60 (£1×60) permed stake (five selections).

7/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been the BOZ’s mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year he packs in.

“I play cautiously and strategically with bank management also always in mind. The staggered acca is the attempt to win large from small stake. The LIM is the cashbuilder to gradually accumulate profit over a 12 month period.”  Boz

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