BOZmail – 17th MAY

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2020 home of the BOZmail

Welcome to the BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet. 

SUNDAY MAY 17th  2020 

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 LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Currently standing at 22.8785 points 

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TENNIS & TO FOLLOW HORSE BACK/TRADE STARTING BANK = 8 points

Currently standing at 10.4606 points

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OCCASIONAL ACCA STARTING BANK = 5 points

Currently standing at 4.90 points

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BOZmail 2020 cycle current overall profit = +5.2391 points

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LESS IS MORE: 

1-35 Auteuil

Seconditis is the most peculiar of all the tipping/gambling phenomena especially in those races where you’ve done a bang on race read like that. And that might be the eighth race this week where my carefully considered outsider has run a belter and still got beat. Murphy sure knows how to get yer. Six weeks now since I tipped a winner of a race. Still running around my usual 60%  plus on lays but just can’t get that winner and over 50% of them finishing second. How they always come in clusters beggars belief. There was an Australian dog this week started 60/1 in a five dog race and led all the way round and looked a cert off the final bend but managed to get chinned on the line by the fav. I’ve been considering taking up crying!

But not the first time I’ve endured seconditis – only marginally nicer than poliomyelitis is what my Dad used to say. Not far wrong. Part of the game. I thought when Feu Follet sailed past Figuero after the last, we were gonna start after lockdown with a winner. Looked on. Murphy still there though. Still pulling the strings.

But I got both my odds on favs beat so no complaints really and a bit more confidence now after a good week overall on French jumps to confirm the move back into daily LIM in advance of the UK start up. Just two months out of action and the plan remains to fill those in the 2020 BOZmail cycle with September and January 2021 to include the tennis slams should we get lucky enough to get a clean run through on the fixture list from hereon in. Won’t be French jumps every day but should still keep us ticking over rest of May and keep my practising sharp to hopefully come into the tricky UK post lockdown with a least a confident stride. Got most of the April US loss back with getting Figuero beat. Now just a case of finding that winner! Try again Sunday!

The Prix Girofla is my Sunday race which is arguably a carve up between Nicolle’s horses and the Munir and Suede pair. The collateral form between all runners – although only one outing – is also pretty extensive so I have been able to make a table of likely outcome. Because I’m publishing early, prices may be inaccurate but they proved so on yesterday as well as the Betfair market on French racing is pretty volatile. Feu Follet never proved as unnoticed in the market as the English media press predicted and that would be true of my general perception of French Racing. English tissues are fairly worthless so market watch remains paramount. 

My lay in this race is Nicolle’s Pamela Des Mottes who has a few negatives in second string jockey, having to give 3lbs to Ladyville on LTO running and a time figure not as impressive as others in the race. Might also have benefited from distance and going LTO as stamina looks in the pedigree. This should be more about speed and the Nicolle Sainte Candy would be my pick of his three with stable jock on board. He’s 2/1 second fav on one tissue and 6/4 fav on the other whilst Pamela Des Mottes is 7/4 and 11/4. I’m ok with the upper end of the PDM price because I think the better form is from the Sainte Candy race where the second from therein is my pick to try for a winner – albeit very small stakes. Anita Du Berlais gets three pound for 3 lengths and can thus expect to turnaround with Sainte Candy given normal improvement and has red hot jockey/trainer combo in Nabet/Cottin who are 3/5 this week at time of writing. Given the owners, be no surprise to see this one go off fav come race time so market watch again and take best price you can. Between 3/1 and 5/1 on my two tissues. Doubt it will start longer but Munir and Suede’s other one Havane Du Berlais might so think about the possibility of dutching those two as this is French racing after lockdown. Form isn’t everything here. French racing does like to get its favs beat except when there is serious money for a French horse. Moves for the M&S two should be noted.

Recommendation:

0.2pt LAY on PAMELA DES MOTTES (could be any price but wouldn’t want over 4.0)

0.05pt BACK on ANITA DU BERLAIS (staying small until I’ve got that tipped winner on the board!)

LIM 2020 Strike Rates: Lays: 24/37 = 64.86%  Backs: 9/27 = 33.33%

THE BOZ’s LIM record for May:

16th:  +0.1156  (+0.1156) Lay @ 1.96 : Back @ 8.0 

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LIM Monthly Scores:

February: + 1.3496 points

March      : + 1.5866 points

April         : –  0.1733 points

May          : + 0.1156 points   

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The BOZmail golden rules:

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(the boz’s job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a lay price or if a specified low lay tissue price goes on a significant drift. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges. The recommendation is always to secure a price (if possible) when actually placing the lay bet. Your discretion based on personal form study and watching the markets develop also encouraged to ensure you maximise returns.The staking advices are a general rather than rigid dictate – mainly for the less experienced and those not able to spend time watching markets develop and practising the optimum betting time skill. Remember also that a lay price available at a significantly lower level than stated on the sheet offers opportunity to increase lay stake without increasing calculated safe lay liability. This can be a key profit optimising tool in the long term if your form study agrees with that published by The Boz.

5/ Always keep in mind the long term ‘importance of  breaking even’ philosophy and practice. This is very much used by The Boz in his staking advices and is recommended in your betting practices – especially during the down spells – in order to maintain a healthy and consistent bank.

6/ Always remember the BOZ does traditionally suffer from Murphys Law. If he expresses his opinion but states that he won’t be betting on it himself and isn’t making it an official tip, remember that historically these can be his best advices! The 2019 Grand National opinion expressed paid a £2,260-93 tricast for a £60 (£1×60) permed stake (five selections). 

7/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been the BOZ’s mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year he packs in.

“I play cautiously and strategically with bank management always in mind.”  Boz 

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