BOZmail – 17th MARCH

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2020 home of the BOZmail

Welcome to the BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet. 

TUESDAY MARCH 17th  2020 

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 LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Currently standing at 22.6206 points

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TENNIS & TO FOLLOW HORSE BACK/TRADE STARTING BANK = 8 points

Currently standing at 10.4606 points

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OCCASIONAL ACCA STARTING BANK = 5 points

Currently standing at 4.90 points

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LESS IS MORE: Tuesday play

4-20 WETHERBY

Hard to know what, if anything, is affected by racing behind closed doors. No precedent and not in the formbook so presumably we carry on as normal. Interesting that France has cancelled all racing until April 15th and that could come here if our situation worsens but for now we carry on. Equine flu last year and we come to a halt to safeguard horses. Human flu, we carry on. Good to see we have got our priorities right at last!

Two to follow horses that I’ve been waiting a while to win on is the theme for Tuesday.

Commodore Barry has his best chance yet in this tight three way heat and despite the scare we received on Sunday on the outsider of three laywise, I’m looking at same here with Coole Hall my preferred oppose with him having slowest times and a stable not currently amongst the winners (despite running to form ok in most races). Bobo Mac has to give weight for his win at Ludlow but he is second best behind Commodore Barry on times and should struggle to concede that weight so may also be the lay if short enough in the betting. Still waiting on prices before I decide how to play and may yet opt to play the simple win on the Bailey horse who does look best in and overdue his win for a stable and jockey bang in form.

Early prices just in with Coole Hall longer than anticipated at 3/1 so I won’t tempt fate again there and lay Bobo Mac small at 6/4 and combine with small back on Commodore who does look likeliest winner. Keep Coole Hall as LIM cover. Small stakes all round however. Novice chase and not worth risking too much of the gains of the past three days.

Recommendation:

0.15pt LAY on BOBO MAC ( around 2.5 and no higher really than 2.8. Simple back on CB if price drifts significantly)

0.075pt BACK on COMMODORE BARRY

LIM 2020 Strike Rates: Lays: 22/35 = 62.85%  Backs: 8/25 = 32%

THE BOZ’s daily LIM record for MARCH:

1st:    +0.196 (+0.196) Lay @ 2.2

2nd:   -0.04   (+0.156) Lay @ 1.4

3rd:    +0.047 (+0.203) Lay @ 2.4 : Back @ 7.4

4th:    +0.146 (+0.349) Lay @ 2.1 : Back @ 5.2

5th:    -0.435 (-0.086)  Lay @ 2.8 : Back @ 34.0

6th:    +0.735 (+0.649) Lay @ 3.0 : Back @ 12.0

7th:     -0.34 (+0.309) Lays @ 4.9 & 1.66 : Backs @ 9.0 & 24.0

8th:     +0.22 (+0.529) Lay not matched : Back @ 3.2

9th:     -0.208 (+0.321) Lay @ 1.79 : Back @ 4.1

10th:   -0.1 (+0.221) Back @ 12.0

11th:   +0.735 (+0.956) Lay @ 1.28 : Backs @ 10.0 & 13.0

12th:    RACING ABANDONED

13th:   -0.175 (+0.781) Lay @ 1.7

14th:   +0.147 (+0.928) Lay @ 2.1 : Back @ 12.0

15th:   +0.147 (+1.075) Lay @ 5.0

16th:   +0.196 (+1.271) Lay @ 3.1

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WINTER NH HORSES TO FOLLOW for TRADING or LIM PURPOSES:

Unwin VC* 

Tea Clipper* 

Black Op 

Verdana Blue 

Maire Banrigh*  

Thyme Hill* 

Nordano* 

Indian Opera

Lady Bowes 

Lostintranslation* 

Normandy Soldier* 

Magic of Light* – Entered for Grand National (Apr 4)

Defi Sacre* 

Lieutenant Rocco*

Soaring Glory 

Ambion Hill 

Quick Wave 

It’safreebee 

Captain Zebo

Ellens Way

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NH HORSE to FOLLOW/TRADE on TUESDAY:

5-10 TAUNTON – AMBION HILL – 0.1pt BACK

Usual advice of take best price you can and hedge back when offered preferential odds either before the off or in running.

Last chance for Ambion Hill down in class and does look the main danger to fav Fair Kate who was however too strong a fav to take on as LIM. And so this is speculative time. I do think Ambion Hill retains the potential that got him on the list and it may be a case of staying patient. On the other hand the drop out LTO was a worry and possibility he’s not in love with the game or lacks resolution in a finish. This race should tell us more.

 Good Luck with your bets.

BOZ

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LIM Monthly Scores:

February: + 1.3496 points

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The BOZmail golden rules:

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(the boz’s job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a lay price or if a specified low lay tissue price goes on a significant drift. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges. The recommendation is always to secure a price (if possible) when actually placing the lay bet. Your discretion based on personal form study and watching the markets develop also encouraged to ensure you maximise returns.The staking advices are a general rather than rigid dictate – mainly for the less experienced and those not able to spend time watching markets develop and practising the optimum betting time skill. Remember also that a lay price available at a significantly lower level than stated on the sheet offers opportunity to increase lay stake without increasing calculated safe lay liability. This can be a key profit optimising tool in the long term if your form study agrees with that published by The Boz.

5/ Always keep in mind the long term ‘importance of  breaking even’ philosophy and practice. This is very much used by The Boz in his staking advices and is recommended in your betting practices – especially during the down spells – in order to maintain a healthy and consistent bank.

6/ Always remember the BOZ does traditionally suffer from Murphys Law. If he expresses his opinion but states that he won’t be betting on it himself and isn’t making it an official tip, remember that historically these can be his best advices! The 2019 Grand National opinion expressed paid a £2,260-93 tricast for a £60 (£1×60) permed stake (five selections). 

7/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been the BOZ’s mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year he packs in.

“I play cautiously and strategically with bank management always in mind.”  Boz 

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