BOZmail – 17th JUNE

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2019 home of the BOZmail

Welcome to the new BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet.

MONDAY JUNE 17th  2019

LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Stood at 26.0 points after month 1

Stood at 25.83 points after month 2

Stood at 27.28 points after month 3

Stood at 36.0395 points after month 4

Stood at 40.8925 points after month 5

Stands at 43.0503 points after month 6

LESS IS MORE: MONDAY PLAY

7-20 NOTTINGHAM

Can’t say I’m bristling with enthusiasm to play in the flat racing markets at the moment with the weather still pretty unreliable so gear up for some tennis coverage for a while now as Wimbledon looms and The Boz is at Edgbaston today where I have done a draw study and report below for a fascinating event this year. The best quality entry at Birmingham in many a year. Vekic is in the middle of a titanic third set struggle for the Nottingham title as I write and I may have news before I finish scribing.

Meanwhile I keep LIM racing entries happening and of course we have Royal Ascot and a return to summer jumps coming up so The BOZmail will be double handed for the next four weeks or so.

Just playing small in this Nottingham handicap where I fancy the two bottom weights with winning form on the heavy ground against the field.Dienonychus has course and distance form and rates the value in the race alongside Overtrumped who has the benefit of Hayley Turner doing the steering and who looked ready for a return to winning ways LTO. Hayley brought in to capitalise on that I would say.

Bet paid for with a lay on Bristol Missile who wouldn’t be the worst in the field but with Richard Price’s stable scoring low on the in running form table at the moment I consider him no value in relation to chance. Unproven on heavy and still struggling with the penalty gained from his win over a mile end of April.

Recommendation:

0.25pt LAY on BRISTOL MILE (around 4.0 ; no greater than 4.2)

0.1pt BACK on OVERTRUMPED (7.5 or better)

0.1pt BACK on DIENONYCHUS (8.0 or better)

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This month plays so far:

8th:      -0.1 (-0.1) Back @ 4.8

9th:   +1.691(+1.591) Lay @ 2.82 : Back @ 6.0

10th: +0.095(+1.686) Lay @ 3.0 : Back @ 3.1

11th:  NON-RUNNER NO PLAY

12th:  +0.34 (+2.026) Half Lay @ 4.4 : Back @ 26.0

             — Whole race played as trade–

13th:   +0.3 (+2.326) Back @ 2.2

14th:   -0.286 (+2.04) Lay @2.24 : Back @11.0

15th:   +0.049(+2.089) Lays @ 3.4 & 4.5 : Back @11.0

16th:    -0.09 (+1.999) Lay @ 1.09

BLWM LIM strike rates:  LAYS: 110/165 = 66.66% :   BACKS: 29/107 = 27.10%

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2019 BOZMAIL TENNIS POT TO PLAY WITH AT WIMBLEDON:

Australian Open = +0.283

French Open      = +2.74

Current Total      = +3.023 points

EDGBASTON PREVIEW:

A really good field of 32 in prospect in Birmingham this week with the world’s top three – Osaka,Barty & Pliskova turning out with Venus Williams making a rare wild card appearance pre-Wimbledon plus Konta,Goerges,Ostapenko,Sabalenka,Vekic& Qiang Wang adding depth of quality with exciting youngsters Yastremska in the main draw already and Swiatek and Sharma battling to get through the qualifiers.

I’ve had a good pre-tournament look at the draw and whilst I’ll know more in tomorrow’s BOZmail after having been at the day on Monday (Tuesday BOZmail will appear am on TUESDAY) I’ve sorted out two quality single bet plays in the first round draw plus a value five for my initial play in the outrights portfolio. I had hoped to be paying for all that with my Nottingham winnings on Vekic but she just lost two tie breaks v Garcia in a very close match to mean my hedge proved wise! Hey ho.

TWO FIRST ROUND PLAYS AGAINST THE BOOK:

From the same eighth of the draw:

Rodina to beat Mladenovic @ best priced 49/11

This is a play against current form as the Russian hasn’t turned up in 2019 yet and is as big as 60/1 on the books in the outrights with 100+ on the exchange. Comes to the fore on grass however and had a good run at Wimbledon last year beating Madison Keys en route to her match up with Serena. Mladenovic is in form and is 1/5  to win this but more a doubles player now and always capable of being flighty. Big serve on grass and on her game justifies her price but I’ll take Rodina before the off and then get poised to trade in play.

Goerges to beat Yastremska @ best priced 15/13

The 19 year old Ukranian is the current form and has won in Hua Hin and Strasbourg already this year as she continues to mature and is ranked 35 in the world now. Not got much grass pedigree however and takes on the world ranked 19 who was top ten last year and also comes to her form on grass and played very well here last year.

Surprised to see her odds against in this and that’s value. Might trade in this but if the German does make a solid start, I might sit tight and expect her to prevail.

My five for the outrights pre-tournament are as follows:

Sabalenka – 11/1 or better

Goerges – 22/1 or better

Yastremska – 25/1 or better

Qiang Wang – 50/1 or better

Rodina – 60/1 or better

Take all at 0.1pt to win at this stage pre-tournament. Guaranteed one in the second round with Yastremska and Goerges playing each other but both are value to go all the way and I do consider the winner is key to the tournament. Winner plays the winner of Rodina v Mladenovic so can only have one QF player from those three but am optimistic one will prevail with Mladenovic least fancied in that foursome.

Sabalenka is bottom half of the draw along with Qiang Wang and has a tough first round v Hsieh but get through that and playing the form she showed here last year and I would fancy her for SF at least. 11/1 is short so try to beat that price if you can.

Qiang Wang is in a quarter with Venus and Barty so is accordingly huge in the outrights playing a qualifier first round. She is a back to lay really as are all in the way of my outright portfolio play.

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SUMMER NH HORSES TO FOLLOW for TRADING or LIM PURPOSES:

Get out the Gate

Commodore Barry

Nietzsche

Caius Marcius

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HORSES TO FOLLOW ON THE FLAT:

Moonlight Spirit – Entered for the Queens Vase at Ascot (June 19)

Eightsome Reel

Dee Ex Bee – Entered for Ascot Gold Cup (June 20)

Sir Dragonet- Entered for Irish Derby (June 29) & King Edward (June 21)

Raise You

Charl Brune

Barney Roy – Entered for Queen Anne(June 18) & Prince of Wales (June 19)

Ocean Paradise

Maydanny

Roseman

Pour Me A Drink

Gold Stick

Light Up Our Stars

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STAGGERED ACCA RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 10 points

Stands at 10 points.

Staggered acca number 11: (LEG 1)

Will shout when I’m ready to start another go at the acca

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Good Luck with your bets.

BOZ

The BOZmail golden rules:

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(the boz’s job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a lay price or if a specified low lay tissue price goes on a significant drift. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges. As from March 2019 onwards, advised not to take BETFAIR SP prices on lays following some adverse returns therein over the January/February period. The recommendation is always to secure a price (if possible) within the published parameters when actually placing the lay bet. Your discretion based on personal form study also encouraged to ensure you maximise returns.The staking advices are a general rather than rigid dictate – mainly for the less experienced and those not able to spend time watching markets develop and practising the optimum betting time skill.

5/ Always keep in mind the long term ‘importance of  breaking even’ philosophy and practice. This is very much used by The Boz in his staking advices and is recommended in your betting practices – especially during the down spells – in order to maintain a healthy and consistent bank.

6/ Always remember the BOZ does traditionally suffer from Murphys Law. If he expresses his opinion but states that he won’t be betting on it himself and isn’t making it an official tip, remember that historically these can be his best advices! The 2019 Grand National opinion expressed paid a £2,260-93 tricast for a £60 (£1×60) permed stake (five selections).

7/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been the BOZ’s mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year he packs in.

“I play cautiously and strategically with bank management also always in mind. The staggered acca is the attempt to win large from small stake. The LIM is the cashbuilder to gradually accumulate profit over a 12 month period.”  Boz

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