BOZmail – 17th JUNE

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Welcome to the BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet. 

THE BOZmail @ Royal Ascot: Day Two

WEDNESDAY JUNE 17th  2020 

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 LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Currently stands at : 18.7525 points (-1.2475 points)

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TENNIS & TO FOLLOW HORSE BACK/TRADE STARTING BANK = 8 points

Currently stands at : 8.72 points (+0.72 points)

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OCCASIONAL ACCA STARTING BANK = 5 points

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SPECIAL ROYAL ASCOT FESTIVAL BANK = 5 points

Currently stands at : 4.71 points

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Post Lockdown Litmus Test Bozbets = +0.085 points

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BOZmail 2020 cycle PART ONE(1/2 – 31/5) overall profit = +4.2876 points

                                      PART TWO(1/6 – 31/1 )  overall profit = -0.7325 points

PART ONE LIM 2020 Strike Rates: Lays: 25/41 = 60.97%  Backs: 9/29 = 31.03%

PART TWO LIM 2020 Strike rates: Lays 3/8 = 37.5%  Backs : 0/5 = 0%

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LESS IS MORE: 

NO BET ON DAY TWO OF ROYAL ASCOT

All you BOZmail Rule 6 aficionados who piled in to Pyledriver when you saw the rain can wave your whips and do a Frankie dismount in the deserted winners enclosure. I actually got the race read right but when I did it the weather was different! That’s me and Murphys Law for you. Hope you soaked up the gen and acted accordingly. Glad to say I did myself after the feelgood factor of Frankly Darling winning. Sadly can’t score the points on here for an LIM that desperately needs them. But it means a not too shabby first Day at Royal Ascot with Verdana Blue still to come. Shortlist shines too with its usual trick of running up 8 nowheres followed by an 18/1 winner (22.01 BSP traded at 40.0 in running in a six horse race)! You do have to keep the faith. I kept mine under intense pressure and some BOZmailers already giving up on me. It’s a long game. Always to be remembered. Off to shout home my nap of day one! 

And sadly she ran a belter on the softening ground which we know she doesn’t like.It caused the 5lb claimer to come and nut her. So having got a bit of my form back, I now need to work on my luck. Been out for months. Must work harder.

Decided on balance to give Day two at Royal Ascot a swerve. Had a really good look and with day one nap in the bank, I might have risked day two nap Juan Elcano with my possible but far from definite lay Japan. No outsiders grab me on Day two and I haven’t found a strong LIM either so on balance I’m having a trading day after the sheet received some positives in that quarter yesterday and my two runners of interest on Wednesday are both from the to follow list (see below). I’ll stick to playing them and see if I can’t do further repair work on the sheet.

THEBOZmail at Royal Ascot (5 point bank): Day one

The Nap: 4-40 VERDANA BLUE – 0.15pt WIN @ 4/1 or better – 2nd

The Lay of the Day: NO BET

The Value outsiders Acca: 1-15 FIRST CONTACT @ 20/1 – LOST

                                                  1-50 MUTASHRY @ 16/1 – LOST

                                                  2-25 WEST END GIRL @20/1 – LOST

                                                   A 0.01pt Each Way Patent is the recommended bet. Total bet stake of 0.14points – NIL RETURN

LIM Scores in June:

5th:  -0.355 (-0.355) Lay @ 2.02 : Back @ 9.4

6th-8th: NO BETS

9th:  +0.048 (-0.307) Lay @ 2.8 : Back @ 14.0

10th: +0.0735 (-0.2335) Lay @ 6.0

11th:  -0.23     (-0.4635) Lay @ 2.5 : Back @ 6.2

12th: +0.098  (-0.3835) Lay @ 1.66

13th: -0.24     (-0.6235) Lays @ 3.2 & 4.4 : Backs @ 5.0 & 7.0

14th: -0.216  (-0.8395) Lay @ 2.44

15th: -0.408  (-1.2475) Lay @ 2.54 : Backs @ 4.4 & 9.4

16th: NO BET

17th: NO BET

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BOZmail 2020 – Horses to follow on the flat:

Frankly Darling – Entered for The Oaks (July 4)

Muker – Entered for York (Aug 20)

Significantly – Entered for Redcar (June 18), York (Aug 20) & Doncaster (Sep 10)

Martineo 

Malotru

English King – Entered for The Derby (July 4)

Ransom

Run Wild – Entered for The Oaks (July 4)

Virgin Snow

TRADE PLAY OF THE DAY FOR TUESDAY:

2-25 ASCOT – Frankly Darling @ 6/4 – 0.5pt BACK

Bet Placed @ 2.7 : Hedged in Running @ 1.26 : P/L = +0.72 points

Can’t tell you what a relief it is to be back working as a trader after the past three months. Did my homework and fancied it after what we saw at Newcastle. Horse clearly showed it had an engine there and the market both in the lead up and on the day was bullish. When that happens on a Gosden charge, you have to take note. Frankie chose the ride over Miss Yoda and my plan was that if he had a good sit, I’d trust him to bring it home. Because of the pulling a bit free early I did decide on a saver in the home straight in case he emptied but that proved unnecessary and cost me 0.13points of my hard earned 2.7 achieved on market watch Monday night. No regrets though. Just had such a tough run as a fixed odds tipster that it was like coming home to be trading the spotted good things again. Done my confidence and belief a power of good. The outsiders and the shortlist drew a blank but The Boz bought home a fav! Often best I can hope for at Royal Ascot!! Roll on the Oaks for this horse. Stays on the list.

TRADE PLAYS OF THE DAY FOR WEDNESDAY:

4-10 ASCOT – Muker @ 40/1 – 0.05pt BACK

6-20 CHELMSFORD – Martineo @ 3/1 – 0.2pt BACK

Usual advice of get the best price you can and consider hedging when offered preferential odds or at your discretion in running.

Muker is just a left field Royal Ascot pick of whom not much is perhaps expected unless he takes a dump again before the off! Keep those eyes peeled. Significantly didn’t over advertise the form at the weekend but also didn’t run badly at very short odds and I’ve decided to keep him on the to follow list until he wins his race whereas Muker goes off if he does nothing here. Sure to be a big price on the exchanges so take early and hedge when offered preferential I’d say. Then back him again if you see him doing a dump! Keeping the back stake low.

Martineo is the more astute fancy. He is very much on his winning mark and was spotted swinging on the bit at Yarmouth when consistently denied a passage through. Has run well at Chelmsford before and John Butler is scoring 78% horses running to form over past 14 days so very much primed this one you’d have thought.

Meatier stake accordingly and if the market stays bullish I’d be tempted to take the trade into running and see how he goes. With a clear passage, I’m hopeful of a big run.

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The BOZmail golden rules:

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(the boz’s job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a lay price or if a specified low lay tissue price goes on a significant drift. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges. The recommendation is always to secure a price (if possible) when actually placing the lay bet. Your discretion based on personal form study and watching the markets develop also encouraged to ensure you maximise returns.The staking advices are a general rather than rigid dictate – mainly for the less experienced and those not able to spend time watching markets develop and practising the optimum betting time skill. Remember also that a lay price available at a significantly lower level than stated on the sheet offers opportunity to increase lay stake without increasing calculated safe lay liability. This can be a key profit optimising tool in the long term if your form study agrees with that published by The Boz.

5/ Always keep in mind the long term ‘importance of  breaking even’ philosophy and practice. This is very much used by The Boz in his staking advices and is recommended in your betting practices – especially during the down spells – in order to maintain a healthy and consistent bank.

6/ Always remember the BOZ does traditionally suffer from Murphys Law. If he expresses his opinion but states that he won’t be betting on it himself and isn’t making it an official tip, remember that historically these can be his best advices! The 2019 Grand National opinion expressed paid a £2,260-93 tricast for a £60 (£1×60) permed stake (five selections). 

7/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been the BOZ’s mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year he packs in.

“I play cautiously and strategically with bank management always in mind.”  Boz 

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