BOZmail – 17th JULY

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2020 home of the BOZmail

Welcome to the BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet. 


FRIDAY JULY 17th  2020 

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 LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Currently stands at : 20.3217 points (+0.3217 points)

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TENNIS & TO FOLLOW HORSE BACK/TRADE STARTING BANK = 8 points

Currently stands at : 14.0733 points (+6.0733 points)

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OCCASIONAL ACCA STARTING BANK = 5 points

Currently stands at : 4.385 points (-0.615 points)

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SPECIAL ROYAL ASCOT fixed odds bets = (-0.554 points)

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Post Lockdown Litmus Test Bozbets = (+0.085 points)

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BOZmail 2020 cycle PART ONE(1/2 – 31/5) overall profit  = +4.2876 points

                                      PART TWO(1/6 – 31/1 )  overall profit = +5.311 points

                                          BOZmail 2020 overall score = +9.5986 points

PART ONE LIM 2020 Strike Rates: Lays: 25/41 = 60.97%  Backs: 9/29 = 31.03%

PART TWO LIM 2020 Strike rates: Lays 21/29 = 72.41%  Backs : 2/11 = 18.18%

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LESS IS MORE: 

1-40 BEVERLEY

I suppose you know what I’m going to say here! If you didn’t hedge that play, you are completely crackers or you just don’t want to win at this game! The market put it in your lap drifting the Skelton horse out from 1.98 to 3.95 and those of you arguing that you don’t have time for market watch have no excuse there. You didn’t need any time.A three year old child could have effected the trade (I know because I employ one!) and because of Captain Tom Cat setting the double up nicely the trade there was a doddle too. Knowing Bryony would try to poach from the front, you only had to leave a 1.5 hedge on the system to be creaming in if you got the 4.1 on offer last night.

And if you didn’t trade and are feeling hard done by because I got the result call wrong well I do feel for you because I spent 38 years of my gambling life rueing defeats like that – which was totally unpredictable. But for the horse refusing to settle, Bryony would easily have won – until I suddenly realised that such plays could be made decent winners if only you keep the hedging option on your side. You don’t always have to use it if you are mega confident about your selection and the way it looks in play. The dangers with this one were pretty obvious. Bryony was having to give weight. Harry knew that and rode canny and Jonjo stirred the King horse up so it started using petrol when it didn’t need to. And the best horse on the day thus got beat. Happens quite a lot. The gambler who doesn’t cover himself on that is genuinely missing a trick I’m afraid. Period.

You were fifty-fifty in your responses to whether I need to specify traditional LIM or trade in future. The staking and the bank management are the only issues really because the race read gives you your lay and your back. You then only need to work out your stakes in relation to your bank. It is an important aspect of the game but very much a personal one given that we all have different banks and different approaches to and feelings about liability. You know mine. Cautious all the way. If you want to copy that, you have my blessing. Going gung ho likewise. Your call.

And I do have sympathy with those who claim no time for market watch. Of course.

You are thus handicapped into playing the traditional way. And isn’t every bookmaker in the land rubbing their hands with glee. Would you leave your money in a bank that prevented you from looking after your money to the best of your ability? Bookmakers

had that privilege of doing what they liked with our money taken away when the exchanges appeared. The onus is now on us to take control of our own destinies.

Trading your bets is part of that. It really is. I’ve banged on about that for over two years now to many a deaf ear. But I am going to cease after this year. It is galling me now to post Thursdays play as a loss when it was a cream cracker win. You see that I hope. Because of circumstances beyond my control, this year has been made very tough and I need the winnings pot boosting every which way I can if we are going to meet targets. So I make no more excuses. I settle the trade score on LIM from here on in when I’ve played it like I did that one. The way I see it, I’m doing you a disservice not to.

Those of you requesting me to stick to the spec and post the LIM as a non trade. I do think you are missing a trick but I will indeed honour that for the rest of this year. You know now that it is not my personal recommendation any more (hasn’t actually been for two years now) but is just me doing bookmakers donkey work and keeping a stubborn clientele, happy to lose, contented. I’ve never been happy to lose. I only really want to provide this service to those who feel the same.

When I wrote last night that I thought Bryony would win and was the value back, that was based on the prices at the time and without knowledge of what might happen in the race. We are able to manage our bets these days when both of those eventualities change. And turn potential losers into winners not far short and sometimes greater than original plays. Whilst same time negating any potential loss. Who wouldn’t choose that option? Only those handicapped by time and as indicated above even those have options to cope available to them. This play could only lose if you let it run as an old fashioned fixed odds one and the percentage you have robbed yourself of in relation to the alternatives is horrendous. Basically stealing from yourself. You can blame the tipster for getting his prediction wrong by all means.

I’m charging you for that right. You happy with that?

That was my final attempt to make the case for change. I await the thoughts of those still inclined to dissent and I will of course abide with whatever you request. I think it possible now that I will prepare two BOZmails each day for the rest of this extraordinary year. The one for those adamantly against the notion of trading your bets. And the other one for those who’ve seen the light. Dunno why I haven’t proposed that option before.

Let me know which version you want!

No apologies about back to LIM trading for now as we head back to two more days on the flat. Jumping does start getting more frequent from Sunday onwards with the luxury of two meetings on Tuesday next week.Yippee!

Back on the flat here and I identify a chance to trade on Anyonecanhaveitall who is dropped down in class but is very much on a mark he has struggled with (and got it in the first place for coming second not first) so I think he is a lay to back trading possible with Dance to Paris under Hollie Doyle as a very feasible one to beat him. He is a Mark Johnston though so likely to lead and in play traders might prefer the back to lay in running. Either is ok I’d say. If you do play Lay to back, take the shortest price you can and look to hedge out before the off. And not a likely great margins or drift prediction. Be content with small pickings, especially if, like me, you cleaned up on Thursday’s play. Don’t go giving any of that back here. Plenty of jumps entries for the coming days on our to follow list as you’ll see. The more serious plays being saved for then.

Recommendation:

0.15pt LAY on ANYONECANHAVEITALL ( around 3.3 or preferably lower to be hedged as and when preferential odds are available)

 LIM Scores in July:

1st:  +0.1054   (+0.1054) Lays @ 2.22 & 2.4 : Backs @ 3.1 & 2.56

2nd: -0.126      (-0.0206) Lay @ 1.48 : Backs @ 16.0 & 40.0

3rd:  +0.0232   (+0.0026) Lay @ 1.7 : Back @ 1.96

4th:   +0.1313  (+0.1339) Lay @ 2.76 : Back @ 4.0

5th:   -0.1         (+0.0339) Back @ 3.0

6th:   NO BET

7th:   +0.098   (+0.1319) Lay @ 2.5

8th & 9th: NO BET

10th: +0.1225 (+0.2544) Lay@ 3.05 : Back @ 5.5

11th: +0.0245 (+0.2789) Lay@ 4.0 : Back @ 5.4

12th: +0.098  (+0.3769) Lay@3.75

13th: +0.098  (+0.4749) Lay@3.08 : Back @ 4.13

14th: +0.049  (+0.5239) Lay@3.6 : Back @ 13.5

15th: NO BET

16th: -0.245  (+0.2789) Lay @ 1.98 (Ouch, that really hurts!!)

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BOZmail 2020 – Horses to follow on the flat:

Muker – Entered for York ( Aug 20)

Significantly – Entered for York (Aug 20) & Doncaster (Sep 10)

Malotru 

English King 

Ransom

Virgin Snow – Entered for Newbury (July 18)

Collinsbay – Entered for Chepstow (July 21) & Doncaster (Sep 10)

Uncle Jumbo – Entered for York (Aug 20) & Doncaster (Sep 10)

On My Way 

Battleground – Entered for Doncaster (Sep 10) & Curragh(Sep13)

Waseem Faris 

Little Chance

Samwell (FR)

Royal Air Force – Entered in the 2021 Derby (June 5)

BOZmail 2020 – NH Horses to follow (Part Two):

Aleatoric – Entered for Market Rasen (July 20)

Check My Pulse – Entered for Perth (July 21)

Ginstrelli – Entered for Southwell (July 19)

Balagan 

Perle Rose

Ashutor – Entered for Stratford (July 21)

Sangha River – Entered for Market Rasen (July 20)

Captain Tom Cat  – Entered for Southwell (July 19)

Beholden

Lord Condi

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The BOZmail golden rules:

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(the boz’s job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a lay price or if a specified low lay tissue price goes on a significant drift. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges. The recommendation is always to secure a price (if possible) when actually placing the lay bet. Your discretion based on personal form study and watching the markets develop also encouraged to ensure you maximise returns.The staking advices are a general rather than rigid dictate – mainly for the less experienced and those not able to spend time watching markets develop and practising the optimum betting time skill. Remember also that a lay price available at a significantly lower level than stated on the sheet offers opportunity to increase lay stake without increasing calculated safe lay liability. This can be a key profit optimising tool in the long term if your form study agrees with that published by The Boz.

5/ Always keep in mind the long term ‘importance of  breaking even’ philosophy and practice. This is very much used by The Boz in his staking advices and is recommended in your betting practices – especially during the down spells – in order to maintain a healthy and consistent bank.

6/ Always remember the BOZ does traditionally suffer from Murphys Law. If he expresses his opinion but states that he won’t be betting on it himself and isn’t making it an official tip, remember that historically these can be his best advices! The 2019 Grand National opinion expressed paid a £2,260-93 tricast for a £60 (£1×60) permed stake (five selections). 

7/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been the BOZ’s mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year he packs in.

“I play cautiously and strategically with bank management always in mind.”  Boz 

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