BOZmail – 17th JANUARY

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2019 home of the BOZmail

 

Welcome to the new BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet.

 

THURSDAY JANUARY 17th 2019

 

LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Stands at 25.5 points after month 1

 

LESS IS MORE: THURSDAY PLAY

3-00 WINCANTON

Ruby ran her race courtesy of getting some of that required rain and looked in with a shout two out only to be found out by the trip. I suspect Gary Moore will go back to 2m and a halfish NTO and she stays on the list for the reasons expounded yesterday. Looks to be getting close to a win again now and the visor seemed to work. And we paid for the bet plus LIM style without too much trouble.

That rain that fell is staying around now although whether we will get enough to bring Two Smokin Barrels into this is doubtful. He does need it soft but certainly has a shout if he gets it and will be the value option so weather watching is the order of the day. If the ground is as forecast, sure to be tight between the front two and I am worried about Molly Childers being on second race following a wind op and the fact that I fell foul of backing a second fav Monday but overall I was impressed enough with Theatre Territory last week against Talkischeap to think he is the better class of these front two. Form and ratings backs that up although truth be told, both of these have a worrying touch of seconditis so even more fuel to wanting the rains to come for Scudamore’s horse who won over course and distance last year off similar weight. Both Molly Childers and Theatre Territory look to have an inability to quicken at the business end although Molly might be the one to have the better stamina for this extended test. Waley Cohen however is likely to make the running again and Molly does find it hard to pass horses so I’m happier laying her small with the caveat of a back on Two Smokin Barrels should the ground turn up soft.

 

Recommendation:

0.2pt LAY on MOLLY CHILDERS

(0.1pt BACK on TWO SMOKIN BARRELS if the ground is reported soft)

 

BLWM LIM strike rates:  LAYS: 35/42 = 83.33% :   BACKS: 6/26 = 23.07%

 

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NH TO FOLLOW LIST STARTING BANK = 15 points

Stands at 15.00 points

 

The Bozmail to follow list has a combination of simply the most exciting horses I’ve seen in current race watching and a selection of those I’ve gotten to know over the years who are getting close to the place where they can be expected to win again. The list is ever changing and I have a subs bench of horses waiting to get on all the time. Candidates also disappear with regularity if they underperform or look to have shot their bolt in the win. So a fluid list that you’ll see altering all the time. I’ll log entries on this sheet as they occur and recommend staking advices on the day they are due to run after I’ve had chance to assess the race they are competing in. These selections can be backed to fixed odds or traded either in or before running as is your preference. There is profit whichever way you play over time.

 

From June 2018, The Bozmail switched to recommending trading the majority of these runners, including inplay trading, to back at optimum prices and hedge accordingly when appropriate. Profit figures were increased on previous years because of that so if you feel confident enough to approach like that, by all means. I will certainly be playing that way. I shall however post as fixed odds selections and the service arbiter will settle all results to Betfair SP in line with his fairness to all policy.

 

2019 BOZmail NH JUMPERS TO FOLLOW:

(* indicates early candidates for Cheltenham Festival Glory)

Willoughby Court *

Waiting Patiently * – Entered for Ascot (Jan 19) & Leopardstown (Feb 2 & 3)

Rebel Og  

Return Ticket  

Adjourned

Dynamite Dollars  

Itchy Feet *

Frodon *

Ask Paddington

Lady Buttons *

Ribble Valley  

La Bague au Roi *  – Entered for Leopardstown (Feb 3)

Benatar *

Captain Zebo

Magic of Light  

Unwin VC  – Entered for Chepstow (Jan 18)

Nicolas Chauvin

Vinndication *

Valtor

Ruby Yeats

Lostintranslation*

Cliffs of Dover*

Ebony Gale

Zakharova  

Indian Opera – Entered for Musselburgh (Jan 18)

 

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AUSTRALIAN OPEN TENNIS – Wednesday night at Midnight:

Just one profit plus in each category for the trades last night and not enough encouragement to get me staying up through the night still! Haven’t got over Cibulkova’s defeat yet and my way with that sort of thing is always to take a step back for a while. Get my head back together. Not an easy night ahead tonight in any case and I’m already starting to look more now at my portfolio in the Outrights. If you read me in Betting Outsiders, you’ll know that my three against the field are all still standing but two play tonight with both having banana skin potential and I assess and write again tomorrow once those results are known.

I decided not to repeat that column on this service but I will be starting a portfolio for the outright winner on here either tomorrow or end of the first week once that in depth assessment of the situation has been completed. So far, the tournament has been marked by a complete absence of shock seed exits so that we have all the big guns still standing making for a fascinating watch if not necessarily easy betting fare. Quite unusual in modern women’s tennis to see that absence of shock results but the one slam where it is more likely is this one where an outsider very rarely prevails.

So more on this tomorrow but for now, just one trade advice FYI tonight and it might get some of you staying up to root for the hometown girl! She is not a shoo in but she holds a slight edge if she can keep her nerve whilst the ex-Wimbledon Champ is known to be vulnerable on this surface and in this early in the year slam. Konta has the back form and the current form with an excellent grafted win in the first round against a bogey player. If that hasn’t taken too much out, she is a value price tonight. She’s the sort of player you need to pray for however and I’ll be dutifully saying mine before I go to sleep but keeping my hands in my pockets!   

P.S. Just noticed that it is a night match so won’t start til we are having our breakfast so the BOZ will be watching (but still not betting) and still saying his prayers!     

 

Inplay trading info:

Value against the book Back to lays on night four include:

Johanna Konta (2.5)

                                     

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STAGGERED ACCA RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 10 points

Stands at 9.5 points.

Staggered acca number 5:

 

Awaiting the emergence of the next weapons grade selection before setting out again on leg 1.

 

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Good Luck with your bets.

 

BOZ

 

The BOZmail golden rules:

 

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(that’s my job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a price. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges)

5/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been my mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year I pack in.

 

I play cautiously and strategically with bank management also always in mind. The staggered acca is the attempt to win large from small stake. The LIM is the cashbuilder to gradually accumulate profit over a 12 month period.

 

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