BOZmail – 17th FEBRUARY

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2019 home of the BOZmail

 

Welcome to the new BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet.

 

SUNDAY FEBRUARY 17th 2019

 

LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Stood at 26.0 points after month 1

Stands at 25.83 points after month 2

 

LESS IS MORE: SUNDAY PLAY

4-20 MARKET RASEN

Well I’ve still got my trousers but full of a bit of dented pride. I went cautious on the Betfair Chase but not cautious enough and got it categorically wrong. Carried away by my own hype perhaps, I ignored the race read which did cast some doubts on the ground for Waiting Patiently. Well beaten though by a fast improving horse from a stable that could do no wrong on the day. And three tentative steps forward followed by a whopper back for LIM. Way it goes sometimes and you gotta get up and dust down. Ruby Yeats didn’t ride to the rescue either – running ok without ever really getting into what was a competitive Saturday race. Onward. Nothing else for it!

Don’t have much heart for Sunday but on a high, I fancy I’d have made a song and dance about this play. Prices are right for an LIM if a case can be made for getting Mixchievous beat.

The argument against is that Venetia Williams’ yard came into swing on Saturday with three winners and she,Tizzard and Nicholls must be watched now in the lead up to Cheltenham. It is also easy to say that Mixchievous doesn’t really have much to beat here in terms of horses in current form. Boss Des Mottes,Cafe Au Lait & old man Brave Spartacus will all have a chance on old form and ratings but none have credible recent form to challenge Mixchievous’ LTO win. That was a chase debut too so easy to argue there will be more to come from the inmate of the top yard.

The negatives are there though. 4/7 because of the opposition. A predilection for heavy ground (all wins on it) when it is generally drying round the country now and a 4lb penalty for that reported easy win. Easy but featured a hefty blunder at one of the early fences. Hardly the jump of a natural. Might be made to pay if he does that again.

And then…. Like I say, imagine now you are reading the rationale of the guy who just confidently tipped up the all time winner of the Betfair Chase not the disappointing loser…. there is Rainy Day Dylan in the field who was the horse who beat The Mighty Ash in his best hurdle race. The Mighty Ash ran well for us at big price on Thursday franking the form on Parlour Maid who also stands proud on the to follow list. With my pecker up I’d be excited by Rainy Day Dylan despite his dismal recent form and a yard showing no sign yet of coming to light. Price is right.

 

Gotta give it a go. Cautious yesterday and it saved my wardrobe. So stay cautious today but not afraid. You just have to get up and take it and carry on doing what you do. This is nobody’s idea of a weapons grade race but it is a classic LIM. Win or lose.

 

Recommendation:

0.75pt LAY on MIXCHIEVOUS (at around 1.58 and no greater than 1.8)

0.1pt BACK on RAINY DAY DYLAN ( at around 13.0)

 

BLWM LIM strike rates:  LAYS: 47/65 = 72.30% :   BACKS: 8/42 = 19.04%

 

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NH TO FOLLOW LIST STARTING BANK = 15 points

Stands at 14.2875 points

 

The Bozmail to follow list has a combination of simply the most exciting horses I’ve seen in current race watching and a selection of those I’ve gotten to know over the years who are getting close to the place where they can be expected to win again. The list is ever changing and I have a subs bench of horses waiting to get on all the time. Candidates also disappear with regularity if they underperform or look to have shot their bolt in the win. So a fluid list that you’ll see altering all the time. I’ll log entries on this sheet as they occur and recommend staking advices on the day they are due to run after I’ve had chance to assess the race they are competing in. These selections can be backed to fixed odds or traded either in or before running as is your preference. There is profit whichever way you play over time.

 

From June 2018, The Bozmail switched to recommending trading the majority of these runners, including inplay trading, to back at optimum prices and hedge accordingly when appropriate. Profit figures were increased on previous years because of that so if you feel confident enough to approach like that, by all means. I will certainly be playing that way. I shall however post as fixed odds selections and the service arbiter will settle all results to Betfair SP in line with his fairness to all policy.

 

2019 BOZmail NH JUMPERS TO FOLLOW:

(* indicates early candidates for Cheltenham Festival Glory)

Waiting Patiently * – Entered for Ryanair Chase (Mar 14)

Return Ticket  

Adjourned

Itchy Feet * – Entered for Supreme Novices (Mar 12)

Frodon * – Entered for Ryanair (Mar 14) & Gold Cup (Mar 15)

Ask Paddington

Lady Buttons * – Entered for OLBG (Mar 12) & Queen Mother (Mar 13)

Ribble Valley  

La Bague au Roi *  – Entered for RSA (Mar 13) & JLT (Mar 14)

Benatar

Captain Zebo

Magic of Light  – Entered for  Grand National (Apr 6)

Unwin VC

Nicolas Chauvin

Vinndication * – Entered for RSA (Mar 13) & JLT (Mar 14)

Valtor – Entered for Albert Bartlett (Mar 15) & Grand National (Apr 6)

Lostintranslation* – Entered in JLT (Mar 14)

Cliffs of Dover

Ebony Gale

Zakharova  

Indian Opera – Entered for OLBG (Mar 12)

Happy Diva

Elegant Escape – Entered for Gold Cup (Mar 15) & Grand National (Apr 6)

Kaiser Black

Le Richebourg* – Entered for the Arkle (Mar 12) & JLT (Mar 14)

Parlour Maid

Good Man Pat – Entered for the JLT (Mar 14)

All Currencies

Master Dino*

Knocknanuss* – Entered in the Arkle (Mar 12)

The Mighty Ash

Pistol Whipped – Entered for Lingfield (Feb 18)

 

SATURDAY HORSE TO FOLLOW BET:

5-10 WINCANTON – RUBY YEATS – 0.25pt WIN @ 11/2 or better – 4th

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STAGGERED ACCA RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 10 points

Stands at 9.5 points.

Staggered acca number 6:

 

Will shout when the new one is ready to start.

 

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Good Luck with your bets.

 

BOZ

 

The BOZmail golden rules:

 

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(that’s my job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a lay price or if a specified low lay tissue price goes on a significant drift. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges)

5/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been my mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year I pack in.

 

I play cautiously and strategically with bank management also always in mind. The staggered acca is the attempt to win large from small stake. The LIM is the cashbuilder to gradually accumulate profit over a 12 month period.

 

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