BOZmail – 17th FEBRUARY

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2020 home of the BOZmail

Welcome to the BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet. 

MONDAY FEBRUARY 17th  2020 

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 LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Currently standing at 20.2703 points

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TENNIS & TO FOLLOW HORSE TRADE STARTING BANK = 8 points

Currently standing at 9.2041 points

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OCCASIONAL ACCA STARTING BANK = 5 points

Currently standing at 5.07 points

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LESS IS MORE: Monday play

3-55 CARLISLE

OK so feel a bit more like I’m getting in the groove again now on the all weather (one for me and the market on Sunday and you had to be early to get our parameter price as the drift was fairly significant and steady as others checked that breeding stat) and when I wrote yesterday that few Frankels win over two miles, I was plucking that from the memory bank and only checked it afterwards. The fact of the matter is that prolific sire that Frankel has been, there is actually only one of his progeny that have ever won over two miles or further. Less than I would have said as ‘few’ implies at least more than one!

I like the occasional quiz question on the BOZmail so there you go – a teaser for you. Can you name the one Frankel foal that has gone on to win over two miles or further?

There’s a pint for you at the first BOZmail Paddock watch event (which has just been confirmed for Kelso on Saturday February 29th. That is conditional on there being an LIM qualifying race that day (six runners or less) and will be confirmed in the BOZmail night before. All members will be welcome.More details to follow.) but you only get the pint if you can answer the question without looking it up. Email it in if you do know the answer (garyboswell@hotmail.com) and I’ll implicitly trust you not to cheat. You’re a BOZmailer now, cheating is not allowed!

If you don’t know the answer, look it up on the Racing Post breeding progeny stats page for Frankel and if you haven’t done that sort of thing before, welcome to the world of form research. I rate checking breeding among the top five aspects of form study that lead to success and I actually have it in the top three when it comes to all weather racing which I have specialised in during years past – mainly Southwell for the shortlist system – and have done less of in recent years. Turf and all weather performance and form varies enormously in each horse and this is often flagged up most potently in the breeding stats and can lead to some excellent bets. If researching form is something you want to get into, look that Frankel over 2 mile winner up and you’ll have learned a vital stat regarding backing or laying Frankel progeny in the future. With so many of them, it is worth knowing everything there is to know about how Frankel progeny can be expected to perform.

There are two all weather LIM qualifying races at Kempton Monday night that I’ve looked at and although I think both will be won by the fav, the latter came close to being lay selection of the day as it features another Frankel – Going Places – that will be a layable price but looks very unlikely to overturn the Gosden hotpot – with Oisin in the plate again and boy is it good to see him back in British racing – so if you don’t fancy my NH LIM play for Monday (and it is a very tight choice between the two) or if Carlisle should go the way of other NH courses into abandonment, you can consider the lay on Going Places as a substitute.

This 3-55 at Carlisle however is irresistible to me however featuring as it does three horses in my back knowledge bank that I’ve been waiting for and can be fancied in this – with none of them the tissue fav and one of them in my personal hero category.

That being Captain Zebo and his trainer/jockey John Dixon. If you love your horse racing and don’t know why this combination are a legend, log into www.Racingtv.com website and watch a free replay of the 1-20 at Carlisle on 16th December 2018. That was the day Captain Zebo came onto my radar with a sensational display of AP McCoy style never say die race riding – nicking a race he looked out of two from home with a tremendous display of stamina and guts from both horse and amateur jockey.

Backed up by a rout NTO over same course and distance – as is this race his third in the sequence of races I’ve watched as a devotee.

In actual fact the race before that is his best piece of form beating Micky Hammond’s Schiehallion Munro at Wetherby and that horse has gone on to win five and be placed in the other three of his eight subsequent races. What an advert for Captain Zebo for whom the form of his two Carlisle wins also stacks up well.

Been off the track for 329 days so the Boz will be in Carlisle tomorrow where the weather forecast is promising to paddock watch the likely fitness and ready to go status of my current hero and his opposition. Two of which I also fancy for this!

Serious Ego got the longest steward’s explanation for his LTO running at Haydock I’ve ever seen courtesy of being ridden out the back for most of the race and making startling late progress to finish a closeish 3rd – 4 lengths – in ground very heavy and similar to that likely tomorrow. He gets the step up in distance all said they wanted and the ground is a slight unknown for Captain Zebo (actually his only time in it resulted in being pulled up) so Serious Ego scores one over him there. He also fits the Nicky Richards stable profile pretty well and although I do think that startling run was petering out at the death and may have been misleading as to his chances over further, there can be no doubt he is very interesting for this race and can be given a proper chance of proving the stewards right in querying the ride he got LTO. Same jockey on board this time who will have pressure on to achieve best possible placing!

Then there is Eureu Du Boulay who also likes heavy going who is famous for his trip over to France when he won a race in a hack canter only to be disqualified because jockey Shane Quinlan (who hasn’t rode him since) took the wrong course. Miffed by this, connections entered him again for another race at Fountainbleu six days later also in heavy ground but under piloting from a French jockey – who would presumably know which way to steer the horse! – and absolutely hacked up in a time which if correct means he’s a shoo in for this! Unfortunately, unable to be sure of that as Racing Post standard times don’t appear for French courses so I’m actually unclear whether that time is as fabulous as it seems and it certainly has not been replicated in any race the horse has run in England. Where they consider him more of a chaser than a hurdler. No idea why that is. Looks more a hurdler than a chaser to me on paper looking at his form. And one that loves the bottomless ground he is likely to get tomorrow. Travels up from Gloucester and he looks the value bet to me given uncertainty about Captain Zebo on the ground and after the lay off (although he does have form running well fresh) and Serious Ego’s possible misdirecter in needing the step up in distance (although breeding does suggest stamina will be his forte). Bottom line is I fancy all three but sadly only one can win.

Which will make you think I give no chance to favourite Teescomponents Lad and other declared runner Taxmeifyoucan which could not be further from the truth. Taxmeifyoucan is the runner I would fancy least courtesy of looking held on past form by the fav and also likely to prefer further in distance. Not out of it though as will like conditions and the stamina test and is quite short in the market already suggesting perhaps some stable confidence.

The fav has a few positives in champ elect jockey booking (he could have ridden the Dalgleish horse), winning form over course and distance in this race last year and a win on heavy ground which perhaps puts him one up on Captain Zebo where times slightly favour the Dixon horse. Actually very close on paper between the top two in the betting but the big negative for Teescomponents in general is weight. 4lb penalty for LTO win over further and may well be that he’ll need the longer distance of his last win at this level. Breeding suggests that and the step back down – whilst not exactly a negative – does strike as a bit odd. Presumably wanting to try and defend his 2019 crown in the race? Has to give nearly a stone to Eureu Du Berlay and a stone and 5lb to Serious Ego and given that they can both be legitimately fancied on paper in the conditions, that could be a huge ask. So the fav is a lay alright. Question is how much so and whether to play the backs and at what staking level?

Further into the cycle I’d have been more gung ho with staking as I do feel quite bullish about the race (although there is certainly a degree of head over heart aspect to it regarding Captain Zebo and that has caught me out recently and is something I do have to watch in general) and this weekend saw the end of the security ‘quarantine’ regarding BOZmailer subscribers who pay an annual sub with deliberate intention to claim a refund under the cooling down law thus getting a 14 day free insight into what the BOZmail is thinking and doing (and you can guess what the motive is for this practice and who might be guilty of it). 

Those practitioners have been weeded out and are gone now but The BOZ has been very aware of their presence first 14 days and so has been deliberately cautious and keeping some of his best stuff back.

You guys are all in it for the year now and are trusted to be on the side of the BOZmail so you get the unfettered BOZ from hereon in. Starting with this race. One I really fancy not because I’m absolutely sure of the result but because it embodies everything I love about horse racing and gambling on it. I am still being cautious stake wise as LIM bank management still needs some TLC as first 14 days were low key but still didn’t do as well as I’d hoped. The weekend gave a cushion on the to follow trades (and a surprise plus for the accas!) but LIM remains the cornerstone and I don’t intend risking going far into the red with that on a race such as this. Staking is therefore modest still. Winnings however could still be considerable if I’ve got it right!      

Recommendation:

0.2pt LAY on TEESCOMPONENTS LAD ( around 2.8 although may well be shorter :

                                                                            upper value parameter 3.2)

0.05pt BACK on EUREU DU BERLAY (around 7.5)

0.01pt COMBINATION FORECAST (Total outlay = 0.06pts) 

on EUREU DU BERLAY,CAPTAIN ZEBO & SERIOUS EGO

LIM 2020 Strike Rates: Lays: 7/12 = 58.33%  Backs: 1/5 = 20%

THE BOZ’s daily LIM record for FEBRUARY:

1st:  +0.196  (+0.196) Lay @ 3.3

2nd: +0.147 (+0.343) Lay @ 2.28

3rd: +0.196 (+0.539) Lay @ 2.9

4th:  NO BET DAY

5th: NO BET DAY

6th: +0.097 (+0.636) Lay @ 2.5 : Back @ 15.0

7th: -0.288 (+0.348) Lay @ 1.96

8th:   -0.2 (+0.148) Back @ 2.56

9th: RACING ABANDONED

10th: -0.21 (-0.062) Lay @ 2.4

11th: -0.191 (-0.253) Lay @ 1.94 : Back @ 14.0

12th: +0.6223 (+0.3693) Lays @ 2.64 & 3.04 : Back @ 6.4

13th:  -0.14 (+0.2293) Lay @ 2.4

14th:  +0.147 (+0.3763) Lays @ 4.2 & 4.65(in running) : Back @ 14.0

15th:  -0.204 (+0.1723) Lay @ 2.36

16th:  +0.098 (+0.2703) Lay @ 2.4

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WINTER NH HORSES TO FOLLOW for TRADING or LIM PURPOSES:

Unwin VC* 

Tea Clipper* 

Black Op – Entered for RSA & Marsh Novices (Mar 11&12)

Verdana Blue – Entered for Champion Hurdle & Mares Hurdle (Mar 10)

Maire Banrigh* – Entered for Arkle (Mar 10) & Marsh Novices (Mar 12)

Wenceslaus* – Entered for Huntingdon (Feb 20)

Thyme Hill* – Entered for Ballymore & Albert Bart(Mar 13)

Nordano* 

Indian Opera

Lady Bowes 

Vinndication 

Lostintranslation* – Entered for Gold Cup at Cheltenham (Mar 13)

Cat Tiger* – Entered for Ballymore (Mar 11) & Albert Bartlett (Mar 13)               

Welsh Saint* 

Normandy Soldier* 

Jatiluwih 

Esprit Du Large – Entered for The Arkle (Mar 10) & Marsh Novices (Mar 12)

Magic of Light* – Entered for Punch(Feb 19), Chelt (Mar 10) & Grand National (Apr 4)

Defi Sacre* 

Lieutenant Rocco – Entered for Warwick (Feb 21) & the Albert Bartlett Novice (Mar 13)

Israel Champ

Soaring Glory 

Ambion Hill 

Quick Wave

It’safreebee – Entered for Doncaster (Feb 19)

Sporting John – Entered for Exeter (Feb 21) & Supreme & Ballymore at Cheltenham

NH HORSES TO FOLLOW on SUNDAY:

1-50 NAVAN – MAGIC OF LIGHT @ 7/2 – 0.15pt BACK – Unplaced

(Backed @ 4.7 : Hedged 0.1pt @ 3.65 : 0.05pt @ 4.0) P/L = 0

Left myself with a 0.14pt profit if she won but was never convinced she was going quick enough or would have the speed to repel that lot over this distance. Travelled out front for long enough however to provide the trade play so she did her job and no damage done. Was I disappointed by how badly she dropped out? Well a bit and she hasn’t improved speed as we’ve seen that sort of run before from her over this shorter distance.But I never felt she had more than an each way chance in this and now I’ve seen it, it looks to me like an entry and a run with the express aim of keeping her price out for the real target which is of course over 4m plus at a place called Aintree. She has a couple more entries before then and I won’t be surprised to see her lose those as well! 

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ANTE POST ACCA FOR CHELTENHAM FESTIVAL:

Lostintranslation @ 8/1

Verdana Blue @ 33/1

Marie Banrigh @ 25/1

Thyme Hill @ 6/1

0.01pt WIN ACCA with acca edge accepted. 

 Good Luck with your bets.

BOZ

The BOZmail golden rules:

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(the boz’s job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a lay price or if a specified low lay tissue price goes on a significant drift. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges. The recommendation is always to secure a price (if possible) when actually placing the lay bet. Your discretion based on personal form study and watching the markets develop also encouraged to ensure you maximise returns.The staking advices are a general rather than rigid dictate – mainly for the less experienced and those not able to spend time watching markets develop and practising the optimum betting time skill. Remember also that a lay price available at a significantly lower level than stated on the sheet offers opportunity to increase lay stake without increasing calculated safe lay liability. This can be a key profit optimising tool in the long term if your form study agrees with that published by The Boz.

5/ Always keep in mind the long term ‘importance of  breaking even’ philosophy and practice. This is very much used by The Boz in his staking advices and is recommended in your betting practices – especially during the down spells – in order to maintain a healthy and consistent bank.

6/ Always remember the BOZ does traditionally suffer from Murphys Law. If he expresses his opinion but states that he won’t be betting on it himself and isn’t making it an official tip, remember that historically these can be his best advices! The 2019 Grand National opinion expressed paid a £2,260-93 tricast for a £60 (£1×60) permed stake (five selections). 

7/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been the BOZ’s mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year he packs in.

“I play cautiously and strategically with bank management always in mind.”  Boz 

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