BOZmail – 17th AUGUST

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2019 home of the BOZmail

Welcome to the new BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet. 

SATURDAY AUGUST 17th  2019 

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 LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Stands at 55.451 points after month 8 (+35.451 points profit)

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2019 BOZMAIL TENNIS WINNINGS:

Current Total      = +8.3313 points

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THE BOZ’s 2019 TO FOLLOW & TENNIS TRADES P/L:

Current Total      = +4.7952 points

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LESS IS MORE: SATURDAY PLAY

4-50 PERTH

Had a bit of extra time with the Tramore non-runner so have had an in depth look into four races at Perth on Saturday and chosen this one for the LIM with the other three forming the basis of my first attempt at an LIM reject acca (see below).

I actually found this one the hardest to pick a winner in but the fav is the value lay of the day hence its choice as the LIM. Pipe’s Max Do Brazil looks at first glance to have not much to beat as both the other two hail from out of form stables. Both horses do however have a big on paper chance with Letmego getting a whopping 21lb weight concession and Mustmeetalady taking a class drop and sporting blinkers first time which may aid his chance of getting back to class 2 race winning form. Both have time figures and ratings to derail the fav who has to carry a decent penalty for his two LTO wins. Then there’s the heavy ground which probably wouldn’t inconvenience MDB if it wasn’t for that weight concession he has to concede. This race might prove a long way home.

So negatives about the long distance travelling Pipe horse and price is another as 4/6 is seriously short in relation to the formbook. To the extent that I’m even rowing in with a back as well. That form of Mustmeetalady is not current but it is compelling and Jonjo’s horses are notorious for just coming back in on a whim especially when there’s rain around. It’s not a confident LIM particularly but it is a compelling one and it has spawned an interesting threesome for my first LIM rejected acca.

Recommendation:

0.25pt LAY on MAX DO BRAZIL (around 1.7 : no greater than 1.96)

0.1pt BACK on MUSTMEETALADY ( 3.25 or greater)

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This month plays so far:

1st:       +1.244(+1.244) Lay @ 1.85 : Back @ 4.8

2nd:      -0.5465(+0.6975) Lay @ 1.99 : Back @ 3.3

3rd:       -0.024 (+0.6735) Lays @2.08 & 2.08 : Back @ 11.5

4th:       +0.045(+0.7185) Lay @ 3.45 : Back @ 11.0

5th:       +0.196(+0.9145) Lay @ 2.08

6th:        -0.48 (+0.4345) Lay @ 3.4

7th:        +0.39 (+0.8245) Lay @ 1.69 : Back @ 11.0

8th:        -0.4425(+0.382)  Lay @ 1.55 : Backs @ 6.4 & 4.1

9th:        +0.245 (+0.627) Lay @ 2.2

10th:       -0.655 (-0.028)  Lay @ 1.71 : Back @ 5.6

11th:       +0.147(+0.119) Lay @ 4.4

12th:       +0.145(+0.264) Lay @ 1.73 : Back @ 55.0

13th:       +0.145(+0.409) Lay @ 4.1 : Back @ 6.2

14th:       +1.434(+1.843) Lay @ 2.06 : Back @ 8.6

15th:        -0.3 (+1.543) Lay @ 1.6

16th:        NON RUNNER

BLWM LIM strike rates:  LAYS: 146/217 = 67.28% :   BACKS: 43/148 = 29.05%

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SUMMER NH HORSES TO FOLLOW for TRADING or LIM PURPOSES:

Commodore Barry

Kaizer 

Caius Marcius 

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HORSES TO FOLLOW ON THE FLAT:

Eightsome Reel 

Dee Ex Bee – Entered for Qipco Cup at Ascot (Oct 19)

Sir Dragonet-Entered for St Leger&Leopardstown(Sep14),Curragh(Sep 15)&Arc(Oct 6)

Raise You – Entered for Ascot (Oct 19)

Ocean Paradise 

Maydanny

Roseman – Entered for Ascot (Oct 19)

Pour Me A Drink 

Gold Stick 

Light Up Our Stars 

Waldpfad – Entered in Haydock Sprint Cup (Sep 7) & Ascot (Oct 19)

Miss Celestial – Entered for Pontefract (Aug 18)

Deirdre – Entered for Irish Champion Stakes at Leopardstown (Sep 14)&Ascot(Oct 19)

Piedita – Entered at Kempton (Aug 21)

James Watt – Entered for Ayr Gold Cup (Sep 21)

Lord of the Lodge – Entered at York (Aug 21) & in the Gimcrack (Aug 23)

HORSE TO FOLLOW/TRADE on SATURDAY

4-45 NEWBURY – POUR ME A DRINK @ 3/1 or better 

Will enjoy the conditions and a strong E/W chance. Back to lay in running for me as I

expect a prominent showing.

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STAGGERED ACCA RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 10 points

Stands at 9.22 points.

 Acca number 17: 

Was intending one more go at the staggered acca and may still do that as the tennis looms but couldn’t pass up this chance to practice at a new acca approach planned for the autumn using the remains of the starting bank. The principle is similar in some ways as these are races I’ve had an extended look at in my LIM selection process and all three gave me a good winner vibe from the small fields. I will be staking just 0.1pt on each of these accas and win accumulator only. The Bozmail traditionally has a good record with daily accas drawn from the to follow list but in order to make the process time manageable this year, it was intended to scale down the to follow lists and so the accas were missed out in favour of the more professional based staggered acca which as we know has proved very frustrating since its inception in December 2018. I’m still getting over how the first one went down with Waiting Patiently getting tripped up in the King George! Several other unlucky ones (and a couple of BOZ getting impatient erroneous ones) and not actually much down as we switch codes but that awareness that money has been made and given back which is ok in the context of the staggered acca. You have to speculate to accumulate. But the BOZmail is never happy when giving winnings back too consistently and also never afraid to admit defeat and try something different.Time has come.

This approach makes sense on paper and also fulfils the big returns from small stakes criteria.Let’s give it a go and see how we do.

Three selections for acca number 17:

Perth 3-05: John Mor @ 9/4

Perth 3-40: Chef de Troupe @ 11/8

Perth 4-15: Effet Special @ 3/1 

Odds are good and combined best prices brings close to 30/1 at time of writing. Only one is fav and that is the Dr Newland Chef de Troupe. Don’t forget to paddock watch him if you get chance! Richard Johnson booking on John Mor looks significant and that 4-15 could arguably have made LIM with fav Ardera Cross also looking very gettable. Not a grade A acca as I used to try for in the staggered but strong nevertheless and prices are such that you could consider permed doubles if that bet is your kind of thing. More my kind of thing is to trade it as it goes along.

I may hedge John Mor in running if he leads well and is offered short as I expect.Watching paddock for second leg!

Likewise if I’m still going strong on the final leg, I’ll be looking at hedging some of that in running depending on what I see as the race is run. 

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US OPEN PORTFOLIO:
 

Recommendations: 

1.5pt LAY on SERENA at around 6.4 

0.25pt BACK on AMANDA ANISIMOVA at 40/1 

0.25pt BACK on CORI GAUFF at 80/1 

0.25pt BACK on SOFIA KENIN at 66/1 

0.25pt BACK ON DANIELLE COLLINS at 250/1  

 Good Luck with your bets.

BOZ

The BOZmail golden rules:

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(the boz’s job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a lay price or if a specified low lay tissue price goes on a significant drift. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges. As from March 2019 onwards, advised not to take BETFAIR SP prices on lays following some adverse returns therein over the January/February period. The recommendation is always to secure a price (if possible) within the published parameters when actually placing the lay bet. Your discretion based on personal form study also encouraged to ensure you maximise returns.The staking advices are a general rather than rigid dictate – mainly for the less experienced and those not able to spend time watching markets develop and practising the optimum betting time skill.

5/ Always keep in mind the long term ‘importance of  breaking even’ philosophy and practice. This is very much used by The Boz in his staking advices and is recommended in your betting practices – especially during the down spells – in order to maintain a healthy and consistent bank.

6/ Always remember the BOZ does traditionally suffer from Murphys Law. If he expresses his opinion but states that he won’t be betting on it himself and isn’t making it an official tip, remember that historically these can be his best advices! The 2019 Grand National opinion expressed paid a £2,260-93 tricast for a £60 (£1×60) permed stake (five selections). 

7/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been the BOZ’s mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year he packs in.

“I play cautiously and strategically with bank management also always in mind. The staggered acca is the attempt to win large from small stake. The LIM is the cashbuilder to gradually accumulate profit over a 12 month period.”  Boz 

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