BOZmail 17th AUGUST

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2020 home of the BOZmail

Welcome to the BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet. 

MONDAY AUGUST 17th  2020 

*************************************************

 LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Currently stands at : 22.0682 points (+2.0682 points)

*************************************************

TENNIS & TO FOLLOW HORSE BACK/TRADE STARTING BANK = 8 points

Currently stands at : 14.6417 points (+6.6417 points)

*************************************************

OCCASIONAL ACCA STARTING BANK = 5 points

Currently stands at : 4.655 points (-0.345 points)

*************************************************

SPECIAL ROYAL ASCOT fixed odds bets = (-0.554 points)

******************************************

Post Lockdown Litmus Test Bozbets = (+0.085 points)

*************************************************

Local Track Factor Section = (-0.53 points)

*************************************************

BOZmail 2020 cycle PART ONE(1/2 – 31/5) overall profit  = +4.2876 points

                                      PART TWO(1/6 – 31/1 )  overall profit = +7.3659 points

                                          BOZmail 2020 overall score = +11.6535 points

PART ONE LIM 2020 Strike Rates: Lays: 25/41 = 60.97%  Backs: 9/29 = 31.03%

PART TWO LIM 2020 Strike rates: Lays 42/54 = 77.77%  Backs : 7/24 = 29.16%

************************************************************************

LESS IS MORE:

NO BET

Disappointing but literally no LIM qualifiers at Uttoxeter on Monday and just a five runner race at Catterick on the day that I wouldn’t touch with a bargepole. Time to live up to the tortoise name and continue slowly and steadily wherever the ground is safe.

We do have a to follow race for the day at Uttoxeter (see below). LIM back at Fontwell on Tuesday.

LIM scores for August:

1st :  NO BET

2nd : +0.0886  (+0.0886) Lay @ 1.93 : Back @ 7.0

3rd:   +0.0245  (+0.1131) Lay @ 3.75

4th:   +0.385    (+0.4981) Lays @ 3.75 & 3.3 :Backs @ 15.0 & 3.75

5th:   +0.0671 (+0.5652) Lay @ 2.38 & 14.0 : Backs @ 19.0 & 4.0

6th:    NON RUNNER

7th:    +0.049  (+0.6142) Lay @ 4.4 : Back @ 7.0

8th:    -0.475 (+0.1392) Lay @ 2.5 : Back @ 6.4

9th:    NO BET

10th:  +0.441 (+0.5802) Lay @ 3.75 : Back @ 8.0

11th:  +0.686 (+1.2662) Back @ 6.6

12th:  +0.0392 (+1.3054) Lay @ 3.75 : Back @ 5.9 

13th:   NON RUNNER

14th:   +0.0294 (+1.3348) Lay @ 1.94 : Back @ 2.2

15th:   NO BET

16th:    -0.124  (+1.2108) Lays @ 2.8 & 4.2

******************************************************************

BOZmail 2020 – Horses to follow on the flat:

Muker – Entered for York ( Aug 20)

Ransom

Uncle Jumbo – Entered for York (Aug 20) & Doncaster (Sep 10)

On My Way 

Battleground – Entered for  Curragh (Aug 22&Sep13)

Royal Air Force – Entered in the 2021 Derby (June 5)

Alicestar 

Custard The Dragon

BOZmail 2020 – NH Horses to follow (Part Two):

Check My Pulse 

Balagan 

Ashutor – Entered for Stratford (Aug 19)

Sangha River – Entered for Stratford (Aug 19)

Captain Tom Cat 

Lord Condi – Entered for Fontwell (Aug 18)

Saint Sam (FR)

Rubytwo 

Pisgah Pike – Entered for Fontwell (18) & Stratford (19)&Newton Abb(21)

Hiconic

Young Wolf

Sirobbie

Little Jessture – Entered for Stratford (Aug 19)

Soldier of Love 

Lady Bowes 

Captain Zebo

Defi Sacre

Sporting Press

Global Tour – Entered for Stratford (Aug 19)

Samsons Reach

Leoncavallo

Longhouse Sale

Oscar Rose

NH TO FOLLOW TRADE HORSE ON SUNDAY:

2-15 MARKET RASEN – EL PRESENTE @ 2/1 – 0.25pt BACK – 3rd

Backed @ 3.45 (averaged) : Hedged 0.3pt @ 2.9 : P/L = +0.049pts

Not ultimately a bad run by El Presente. Weight successfully stopped him. That is a handicapper’s job and why we played trade. Had El Presente won, it would have been a sign of excellence worthy of further following. That he lost means he goes off for a while now as we watch his mark come back down sufficiently again. You could argue he won by too far LTO. 17 lengths meant a punishing penalty. That’s the game.

That again is why I trade. Made a profit off El Presente for which I heartily thank him!

NH TO FOLLOW HORSES at Uttoxeter on MONDAY:

2-10 Sangha River @ 2/5

      & Check My Pulse @ 7/1 – 0.1pt BACK

How best to play this with two horses in the same race? No kind of price on Sangha River so he’s out really especially as he has a double penalty to carry and we’ve seen how tough that can be. Getting so much weight, Rebecca Menzies’s charge could be a very live danger with stable and jockey coming into form at the right time. Would have been closer at Perth LTO but for the peck at the last. Value here at 7/1 so I play a straight win bet on him. You might fancy a save straight forecast with the fav to beat Check My Pulse but I’m playing stakes down to allow for Sunday’s disappointment and to save for hopefully stronger fare at Fontwell on Tuesday. So I leave Sangha River alone at that price. No trading either today. Bit of a fancy that Check My Pulse might win. 

 **********************************************************************************

LIM Monthly Scores:

February: + 1.3496 points

March      : + 1.5866 points

UK RACING LOCKDOWN

April         : – 0.1733 points

May          : – 0.8359 points

UK RACING RESTARTED

June         : + 0.0428 points

July          : + 0.8046 points  (+2.7744points)

The BOZmail golden rules:

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(the boz’s job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a lay price or if a specified low lay tissue price goes on a significant drift. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges. The recommendation is always to secure a price (if possible) when actually placing the lay bet. Your discretion based on personal form study and watching the markets develop also encouraged to ensure you maximise returns.The staking advices are a general rather than rigid dictate – mainly for the less experienced and those not able to spend time watching markets develop and practising the optimum betting time skill. Remember also that a lay price available at a significantly lower level than stated on the sheet offers opportunity to increase lay stake without increasing calculated safe lay liability. This can be a key profit optimising tool in the long term if your form study agrees with that published by The Boz.

5/ Always keep in mind the long term ‘importance of  breaking even’ philosophy and practice. This is very much used by The Boz in his staking advices and is recommended in your betting practices – especially during the down spells – in order to maintain a healthy and consistent bank.

6/ Always remember the BOZ does traditionally suffer from Murphys Law. If he expresses his opinion but states that he won’t be betting on it himself and isn’t making it an official tip, remember that historically these can be his best advices! The 2019 Grand National opinion expressed paid a £2,260-93 tricast for a £60 (£1×60) permed stake (five selections). 

7/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been the BOZ’s mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year he packs in.

“I play cautiously and strategically with bank management always in mind.”  Boz 

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *