BOZmail – 17th APRIL

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2019 home of the BOZmail

Welcome to the new BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet.

WEDNESDAY APRIL 17th 2019

LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Stood at 26.0 points after month 1

Stood at 25.83 points after month 2

Stood at 27.28 points after month 3

Stands at 36.0395 points after month 4

LESS IS MORE: WEDNESDAY PLAY

3-25 BEVERLEY

Bad luck with WarTiger I thought. Couldn’t quite grab the ground back on a top ride from Ryan Moore. I noticed you all getting on the lay early aswell! We are getting there!

And one of the key traits of good LIM play is knowing when not to go daft. Wednesday is that day. Just this toughie at Beverley and a couple of O’Brien fav races at Dundalk which I have looked at because of Western Australia at HQ today. Wilted the way O’Brien’s often do early in the season and tomorrow’s two might be those. Guesswork though and his stable is running high to form overall still so I make a stab at this Beverley handicap with no particular confidence. After a couple of days of staking up a bit, time to go basement on Wednesday as this looks between the top two in the betting. Just a case of choosing which one to lay. I choose Boutonniere on the same grounds as Marhaban on Tuesday i.e. that his switch to turf means he could well be underpriced if he doesn’t show form to date on it. Even if he does, he has a class hike to overcome aswell. Stable are firing but opposing Fahey stable puts up the useful apprentice Sean Davis who brings weights parity to the contest. Fraser Island and Hoffa might provide us with cover but really a day as close to guesswork as I like it to get so I don’t even go minimum lay stake. I go half of minimum lay stake!!

See you Thursday!!

Recommendation:

0.1pt LAY on BOUTONNIERE (around 3.25 : no greater than 4.0)

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This month plays so far:

1st: NON RUNNER  

2nd:   +0.355 (+0.355) LAY @ 1.9 : BACK @ 2.6

3rd:     -0.6 (- 0.245) LAY @  2.5 : BACK @ 10.0

4th:     +0.24 (- 0.005) LAY @  3.8

5th:     +0.044(+0.039) LAY @ 3.5 : BACK @ 3.5

6th:     +0.343(+0.382) LAY @ 2.2

7th:     +0.39 (+0.772) LAY @ 2.52 : BACK @ 12.0

8th:     – 0.52 (+0.252) LAYS @ 3.6 & 4.7 : BACK @ 9.2

9th:     – 0.26 (- 0.008) LAY @ 1.8 : BACK @ 8.0

10th:   – 0.276(- 0.284) LAY @ 1.88 : BACK @ 22.0

11th:   – 0.34 (- 0.624) LAY @ 2.2  : BACK @ 10.5

12th:   +0.343 (- 0.281) LAY @ 3.2

13th:   +0.294 (+0.013) LAY @ 3.4

14th:   +0.243 (+0.256) LAY @ 3.2 : BACK @ 7.0

15th:   +0.545 (+0.801) LAY @ 4.0 : BACK @ 4.5

16th:   +0.193 (+0.994) LAY @ 2.86 : BACK @ 6.0

BLWM LIM strike rates:  LAYS: 85/121 = 70.24% :   BACKS: 19/79 = 24.05%

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STAGGERED ACCA RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 10 points

Stands at 9.15 points.

Staggered acca number 9: (LEG 2)

Will shout as soon as second leg emerges.

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Good Luck with your bets.

BOZ

The BOZmail golden rules:

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(the boz’s job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a lay price or if a specified low lay tissue price goes on a significant drift. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges. As from March 2019 onwards, advised not to take BETFAIR SP prices on lays following some adverse returns therein over the January/February period. The recommendation is always to secure a price (if possible) within the published parameters when actually placing the lay bet. Your discretion based on personal form study also encouraged to ensure you maximise returns.The staking advices are a general rather than rigid dictate – mainly for the less experienced and those not able to spend time watching markets develop and practising the optimum betting time skill.

5/ Always keep in mind the long term ‘importance of  breaking even’ philosophy and practice. This is very much used by The Boz in his staking advices and is recommended in your betting practices – especially during the down spells – in order to maintain a healthy and consistent bank.

6/ Always remember the BOZ does traditionally suffer from Murphys Law. If he expresses his opinion but states that he won’t be betting on it himself and isn’t making it an official tip, remember that historically these can be his best advices! The 2019 Grand National opinion expressed paid a £2,260-93 tricast for a £60 (£1×60) permed stake (five selections).

7/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been the BOZ’s mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year he packs in.

“I play cautiously and strategically with bank management also always in mind. The staggered acca is the attempt to win large from small stake. The LIM is the cashbuilder to gradually accumulate profit over a 12 month period.”  Boz

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